Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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ToeMissile
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Powell before congress, inflation is on track to 2% target. cpi, ppi after testifying came in higher than expected. UK ppi and cpi both came in below expectations.
I doubt we get a hike at this time but with that I see a delay in cuts, if only until the next meeting.
Higher for longer yada yada... the only real question is how does the market react?
The market wants to continue being bullish, they want the s&p at 5400.
I really want a pullback but I just don't see it happening. This mediocre range we've been in is about the best we're gonna get, which really sucks.
With yesterday's rally, a lot of people are going to be chasing as well, doing the smart thing and waiting for confirmation.
I doubt we get a hike at this time but with that I see a delay in cuts, if only until the next meeting.
Higher for longer yada yada... the only real question is how does the market react?
The market wants to continue being bullish, they want the s&p at 5400.
I really want a pullback but I just don't see it happening. This mediocre range we've been in is about the best we're gonna get, which really sucks.
With yesterday's rally, a lot of people are going to be chasing as well, doing the smart thing and waiting for confirmation.
Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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At this point, cutting closer to the election does nothing. It takes at least 6-9 months for fed policy to actually impact people. If this was just purely politically driven, they would be cutting now to get more housing starts and business investment rolling now so it can be full bore by the end of summer.
Having expected politically juicing the election, I'm honestly surprised they did not cut.
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I think the fact we aren’t getting another small rate hike to rein in the markets is the best we can expect. Housing starts were still solid, the fed is bailing out any bank that shows weakness and construction is still at full blast and has been for 4 years. Cutting rate doesn’t do anything for housing starts when it’s already basically maxed out due to labor supply constraints.
Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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The biggest shock was raising the fed funds long term rate.
While the market did see a massive jump, I'm not so sure this is exactly as bullish as it appears to be.
Powell left a lot up to the future and can change directions based on data but... I'm not so sure this is a good thing in the long run.
Even higher yields and increasing amounts of treasuries needing to be sold. While it's great semis are making record profits off big tech cash, I'm not so sure this is good for the consumer in any way.
While the market did see a massive jump, I'm not so sure this is exactly as bullish as it appears to be.
Powell left a lot up to the future and can change directions based on data but... I'm not so sure this is a good thing in the long run.
Even higher yields and increasing amounts of treasuries needing to be sold. While it's great semis are making record profits off big tech cash, I'm not so sure this is good for the consumer in any way.
fris
Vyemm Raider
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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J Pow Boogaloo. Gold bugs must be like pigs in shit right now.
I feel so dirty, but I am actually thinking about buying some fake internet money.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I mean, everyone was saying to look at the 70's. The Fed ignored it. They tried the same thing back then, over and over, "looks like we beat it...oh shit, no, it's even worse this next go around."
The_Black_Log Foler
Stock Pals Senior Vice President
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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also if you held cash instead of stocks you lost 50% of your money in real terms instead of just having a decade of being flat in real terms.
I also think that if the 2020s end up being an inflationary period similar to the 70s that US tech is far better positioned than it was to continue to deliver real returns, the 70s was a perfect storm of inflation and massively eroding competitive advantage in most US sectors.
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