ToeMissile
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Investing General Discussion
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Blazin
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Down 1-2%? FinTwit is so convinced we are getting a decline starting to doubt that case. It seems the obvious set up and obvious rarely works out. Maybe we get IWM/Industrial/RSP etc down pretty heavily and tech rallies as its largely unaffected. Futures open in 2hrs that should give us some idea. Anything around 1% and I would guess it calms even more towards the open. 1.5-2% down on the futures could trigger some further panic.
I want a big decline this week so I'm trying to not want/expect a big decline or it's going to ruin it. At the open Im going to be watching credit spreads, junk bonds, flight to safety trades etc to try to gauge how "real" it is.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Any real downward movement tomorrow is a buying opportunity imo. If I see a 3% or greater move tomorrow I'm looking to buy. Mexico and Canada cannot win this and both they and Trump know it. Their economies are to dependent on us but the other way around isn't true. We can absorb the little pain we feel while they will both see their economies teeter. It wont last long.
Chyna, though, that's the one to watch. Again we can handle the pain much better than they can but this one won't be nearly as insignificant. They sell us everything and if they get serious they can start limiting drug exports.
Keep an eye on the EU as well. If they try some solidarity shit with Canada things can get real. I don't think they will do more than talk though because the best answer to the EU isn't a trade war, its Trump responding by announcing the withdrawal of 100% of our troops in the EU and from NATO. He can also threaten to stop supplying them natgas and as its February and we supply them with about 50% of all their natgas, I don't see the EU willing to play this game of chicken. They are basically pussies at this point.
tldr: Anything over 3% down tomorrow is probably an overreaction and might present some buying opportunities.
Chyna, though, that's the one to watch. Again we can handle the pain much better than they can but this one won't be nearly as insignificant. They sell us everything and if they get serious they can start limiting drug exports.
Keep an eye on the EU as well. If they try some solidarity shit with Canada things can get real. I don't think they will do more than talk though because the best answer to the EU isn't a trade war, its Trump responding by announcing the withdrawal of 100% of our troops in the EU and from NATO. He can also threaten to stop supplying them natgas and as its February and we supply them with about 50% of all their natgas, I don't see the EU willing to play this game of chicken. They are basically pussies at this point.
tldr: Anything over 3% down tomorrow is probably an overreaction and might present some buying opportunities.
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Arden
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Don't know a ton about this stuff, but it seems removing the de minimis exception should make things really... interesting. Especially for China.
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Harming the two best trade partners any nation in the world has is not going to go over well. We benefit in no way from either of their economies "teetering." This is zero-sum thinking on a vastly positive sum continent. I would much rather he was fucking with China or Europe and not our extremely beneficial neighbors.
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Blazin
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Dayum.... my inner Captain Hindsight is wishing I bought some SRTY on Friday since this was a high odds outcome.
Ah well. In the mean time: kylorenMOAR.gif
Sanrith Descartes
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Why yes, I definitely see the trade benefit we are enjoying from this chart.
Same with this chart of trade with Mexico.
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"Trade surplus" means they sell us stuff in exchange for fiat that we just keep printing.
It's never been a winning argument. Yes, we should produce more stuff here, but in addition to the stuff that we import rather than instead of. That's how you get higher standards of living.
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Arden
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I doubt Trump intends to keep the tariffs up for long (at least not with Canada, and probably not MX).
Again, I'm certainly not an economist, but you don't have to be to understand how Trump thinks. Some people show you the stick and show you the carrot and let you decide which one you want. Trump's style has always been to bludgeon you with the stick first, then offer you half a carrot. Sure, you'd rather have the whole carrot, but you'll take half if it means he stops hitting you with the stick.
My guess is he quickly renegotiates some stuff with Canada and MX, ends the tariffs, claims a victory, and moves on to something else.
Edit: Which means some people stand to make a lot of money when the market quickly rebounds in a big way...
Again, I'm certainly not an economist, but you don't have to be to understand how Trump thinks. Some people show you the stick and show you the carrot and let you decide which one you want. Trump's style has always been to bludgeon you with the stick first, then offer you half a carrot. Sure, you'd rather have the whole carrot, but you'll take half if it means he stops hitting you with the stick.
My guess is he quickly renegotiates some stuff with Canada and MX, ends the tariffs, claims a victory, and moves on to something else.
Edit: Which means some people stand to make a lot of money when the market quickly rebounds in a big way...
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Big Phoenix
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Gas has shot up here in the last few weeks. Went from just under $3/gal to $3.30/gal.
tugofpeace
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Blazin
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I had my finger over a 124 stop on Friday and didn’t take it , that’s going to cost me $5k
Stand to make a lot more from a market decline so will just have to not worry about NVDA for a bit
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