MLB 2024: Rangers Conquer Texas, Then America

TheNozz said:

I honestly don’t know why Mets didn’t use Manaea in Game 1, you think you’d want your best guy to set the table for the series

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• Senga's xBA against right-handed hitters: .210
• Manaea's xBA against righties: .230

• Senga: 1.20
• Manaea: 1.30

• Senga's performance in high leverage situations has an LI adjustment that shows he keeps his cool. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in high-stress innings barely ticks up from his overall, which is around 3.40.
• Manaea, on the other hand, we're looking at an FIP of 3.60 generally, but in high leverage? It jumps. Not much, but enough. We're playing the long game, not just Game 1.

• Dodgers prepped for Manaea, thinking logically he'd start. But baseball isn't just numbers; it's about disrupting rhythm. Senga's only faced two Dodgers this year, minimal scouting data. It's the unknown variable, the chaos factor.

• We've modeled this series out. Starting Senga allows us to use Peterson in relief, creating a bridge to Manaea in Game 2 with a fresher bullpen. We're optimizing for Total Series ERA not just Game 1.

• Manaea's arm benefits from that extra day. His velocity and spin rate see a statistically significant uptick with an extra day. We're not just playing for tonight; we're setting up our rotation for an optimal performance curve across potentially seven games.