MLB 2024: Rangers Conquer Texas, Then America

TheNozz said:

I honestly don’t know why Mets didn’t use Manaea in Game 1, you think you’d want your best guy to set the table for the series

Click to expand...

Okay, team, let's break down why Senga started Game 1 and not Manaea, and we're gonna use some sabermetrics here.

First, the Expected Batting Average Against (xBA):

• Senga's xBA against right-handed hitters: .210
• Manaea's xBA against righties: .230

Now, Dodgers' lineup? Heavy on the righties. We're playing the percentages here. Senga's got this ghost forkball, right? It's a unicorn pitch, hard to predict, even harder to hit.
Now, for WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched):

• Senga: 1.20
• Manaea: 1.30

Lower WHIP means fewer runners on base, less pressure.

But here's where it gets interesting:

Pitcher vs. Batter Splits and Leverage Index (LI):

• Senga's performance in high leverage situations has an LI adjustment that shows he keeps his cool. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in high-stress innings barely ticks up from his overall, which is around 3.40.
• Manaea, on the other hand, we're looking at an FIP of 3.60 generally, but in high leverage? It jumps. Not much, but enough. We're playing the long game, not just Game 1.

The Element of Surprise:

• Dodgers prepped for Manaea, thinking logically he'd start. But baseball isn't just numbers; it's about disrupting rhythm. Senga's only faced two Dodgers this year, minimal scouting data. It's the unknown variable, the chaos factor.

The Bullpen Strategy:

• We've modeled this series out. Starting Senga allows us to use Peterson in relief, creating a bridge to Manaea in Game 2 with a fresher bullpen. We're optimizing for Total Series ERA not just Game 1.

Rest and Recovery:

• Manaea's arm benefits from that extra day. His velocity and spin rate see a statistically significant uptick with an extra day. We're not just playing for tonight; we're setting up our rotation for an optimal performance curve across potentially seven games.

Look, starting your 'ace' in Game 1 is old school. We're in the business of winning series, not just games. We crunch these numbers not for the glory of Game 1 but for a championship. By these calculations, Senga's the move. We save Manaea's firepower for when they're adjusting to our opener strategy.

That's how we play baseball in 2024. Any questions?






TL;DR

Math