This whole season has been a total crapshoot for just about everyone. Every team has looked like total dogshit multiple times this year, but I'm always leery of Kentucky, Uconn, and Michigan St come tournament time. They seem to almost always play above their seed.
I'm always curious as to people's mindset when picking their bracket. Do you generally just look at the matchup as it stands, and picks the winner, or do you also consider how likely each team is to even make it that far?
Example, in the East bracket I have #1 UNC playing #4 Kentucky in the Sweet 16. My gut tells me to pick Kentucky if that matchup occurs, but I then think that Kentucky is going to have a hard time even making it to that game, having to probably play #5 Indiana to get there.
So while I'm maybe 55% certain that Kentucky could beat UNC, I'm about 80% certain that UNC will reach that game, but only maybe 60% certain that Kentucky will make it there, so I end up picking UNC as the winner to hedge my bet against Indiana beating Kentucky the round before.
Or do the rest of you just say fuck it, and pick the games as they fall with no regard for the likelihood of those 2 teams even being in that game?