New cold war?
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Hey remember when every person said foreign policy would be Obamas major strength? What a fucking shit show. Good thing theres a good chance we elect more or less the co-architect of this abortion.
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Furry
WoW Office
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our middle east policy has been a shitshow for a long fucking time. Our army should be there to kill things, not secure and build them up. My stance has been and remains that our military is an embarrassment and a huge waste of money, and that fact rests -entirely- on the retardation that has been leading it for decades.
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yerm
Golden Baronet of the Realm
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Syria is Russia's regional ally. They're the only place outside the former USSR housing a military installation - a naval base which gives Russia a port with Med access that's not reliant on Turkish permission. They've been quite friendly with Russia historically, even to the point of refusing to allow gulf oil to pipe through their country because it would hurt the Russian economy. Russia likewise has written off billions of debt from them. With Russia's other major port in the Crimean peninsula they were willing to absolutely tank long-term relations with Ukraine and short-term relations with the west, zero fucks given, when Ukraine started bailing on their sphere and wanted to renegotiate terms regarding Sevastopol. At this point, we KNOW they will not back down over Tartus either.
The situation for Russia is the Baltic states joining NATO, Turkey becoming more hostile and threatening, China increasing power in the pacific, and now Syria has the potential to collapse into either a Saudi puppet, anarchy, or a jihadist mix of the two. This is unacceptable to them. We can bitch and moan about how they're bullies and it's their fault - it's still unacceptable to them. They cannot back down. If they allow the USA, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to destroy their literal best friend they are done as a force of influence and lucky to only go back to 1991 levels of being pushed around again. They have to AT LEAST put up enough of a fight that it is clear they only lost because America won - no other loss can be stomached.
I know I can sound like a crackpot at times but this much at least isn't speculative or tin foil. Russia literally can and will not allow itself to lose to nobodies - if Syria goes down, it must be to an opponent of the caliber of the USA (maybe a coordinated EU could suffice). If we want to actually win in Syria - which for Obama is Assad out and someone who will play economic ball with Turkey and SA in - we have to use enough force for Russia to be able to publicly state that the USA went in there in force. How do you do that when Russia's right there without sparking war? I don't fucking know.
This part I don't believe, I just kind of wonder: The first world war was sparked by Germany taking actions that they knew would cause Russia to flinch. The Tsar was in a very weak position and everyone knew it. He could not suffer a humiliation. When Austria stumbled into a chance to push, Germany knew with certainty that Russia HAD to stand up for Serbia, because they'd run out of leeway to let these things slide. If the precursor events to WWI had taken place before the Balkan wars, Russia MIGHT have backed down, and if before 1905 they WOULD have backed down. Not in 1914. They had to at least make a show of defending Serbia. Germany knew this, and pushed the Austrians in, and Russia responded with their full mobilization which Germany promptly responded to it... with invading France and Belgium.
So anyway, my worry is, here we are: the US dollar appears to be only potentially getting weaker. Our debt is so bad we've shit on interest rates so that our debt interest payments can stay low. Our economy is being passed by China and is looking to be outpaced by others in our lifetime. Throw in the cold war's end and now we're both economically and militarily seen as obsolete by most of the world. Nobody else really feels like they need to prop up the dollar. Few feel like our unmatched military is a necessary or good thing anymore. Our time is passing. What if (and again I don't REALLY think this, just kinda worry) we are taking similar steps to Germany in trying to provoke a conflict while we're still relevant and superior? What if the goal of western elite IS for conflict, they're just trying to provoke it because they don't want to be the instigators?
The situation for Russia is the Baltic states joining NATO, Turkey becoming more hostile and threatening, China increasing power in the pacific, and now Syria has the potential to collapse into either a Saudi puppet, anarchy, or a jihadist mix of the two. This is unacceptable to them. We can bitch and moan about how they're bullies and it's their fault - it's still unacceptable to them. They cannot back down. If they allow the USA, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to destroy their literal best friend they are done as a force of influence and lucky to only go back to 1991 levels of being pushed around again. They have to AT LEAST put up enough of a fight that it is clear they only lost because America won - no other loss can be stomached.
I know I can sound like a crackpot at times but this much at least isn't speculative or tin foil. Russia literally can and will not allow itself to lose to nobodies - if Syria goes down, it must be to an opponent of the caliber of the USA (maybe a coordinated EU could suffice). If we want to actually win in Syria - which for Obama is Assad out and someone who will play economic ball with Turkey and SA in - we have to use enough force for Russia to be able to publicly state that the USA went in there in force. How do you do that when Russia's right there without sparking war? I don't fucking know.
This part I don't believe, I just kind of wonder: The first world war was sparked by Germany taking actions that they knew would cause Russia to flinch. The Tsar was in a very weak position and everyone knew it. He could not suffer a humiliation. When Austria stumbled into a chance to push, Germany knew with certainty that Russia HAD to stand up for Serbia, because they'd run out of leeway to let these things slide. If the precursor events to WWI had taken place before the Balkan wars, Russia MIGHT have backed down, and if before 1905 they WOULD have backed down. Not in 1914. They had to at least make a show of defending Serbia. Germany knew this, and pushed the Austrians in, and Russia responded with their full mobilization which Germany promptly responded to it... with invading France and Belgium.
So anyway, my worry is, here we are: the US dollar appears to be only potentially getting weaker. Our debt is so bad we've shit on interest rates so that our debt interest payments can stay low. Our economy is being passed by China and is looking to be outpaced by others in our lifetime. Throw in the cold war's end and now we're both economically and militarily seen as obsolete by most of the world. Nobody else really feels like they need to prop up the dollar. Few feel like our unmatched military is a necessary or good thing anymore. Our time is passing. What if (and again I don't REALLY think this, just kinda worry) we are taking similar steps to Germany in trying to provoke a conflict while we're still relevant and superior? What if the goal of western elite IS for conflict, they're just trying to provoke it because they don't want to be the instigators?
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Obama was supposed to be the one that stopped this imperialistic bullshit we have been doing for decades. Its at least what he ran on. But what happened? He is doing the same shit. And 1/2 ass to top it all off.
Libia was one of our allies, they were kicking radicals asses in their area. Say what you want about Qaddafi, yeah tyrant and all that, but Lybia was secular, and stable and kicking ass in the area.
Right now Lybia does not have a government and is overrun by radicals. And thats just one of the blunders.
Libia was one of our allies, they were kicking radicals asses in their area. Say what you want about Qaddafi, yeah tyrant and all that, but Lybia was secular, and stable and kicking ass in the area.
Right now Lybia does not have a government and is overrun by radicals. And thats just one of the blunders.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I don't really think that's an "if," yerm. We love to stir up shit in the Middle East to destabilize the region. It's why we fund both sides in all their stupid shit conflicts.
I've said it here and elsewhere, but we used to fucking love Assad. He was seen as the model for Democracy in the Middle East. Then towards the end of the Iraq mess, we decided to flip that and create a new enemy.
There's no reason for us to accuse Russia of hacking shit, while at the same time saying that hacking is an act of war, than for us to want to start a conflict with Russia.
I wish I knew what the end game here is other than just money. But maybe it really is just about money?
I've said it here and elsewhere, but we used to fucking love Assad. He was seen as the model for Democracy in the Middle East. Then towards the end of the Iraq mess, we decided to flip that and create a new enemy.
There's no reason for us to accuse Russia of hacking shit, while at the same time saying that hacking is an act of war, than for us to want to start a conflict with Russia.
I wish I knew what the end game here is other than just money. But maybe it really is just about money?
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TrollfaceDeux
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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remember when Obama made fun of Romney for thinking Russia is a threat to USA?
I fucking remember.
I fucking remember.
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Muurloen
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Oblio
Utah
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Not exactly Main Stream but one News Outlet has been covering this. First video is from over a year ago, links to Parts 2-4 on the YouTube Page.
I think this is Episode is from Feb of this year...
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Aaron
Goonsquad Officer
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Many Americans seem to think that the Russian Military of the mid 2010s is the same military they had in the mid 90s. People (and especially politicians and generals) who believe that are in for a rude awakening. Back in the 90s basically the only part of the armed forces of Russia that got any money was the strategic nuclear deterrent arm, and even they got pretty lax funding. The Russian military back then quickly became a joke following the fall of the USSR. Once Putin came to power at the turn of the century his main goal was to fix the military, and to do it fast. However, they have gone the route of asymmetrical deterrence via the USA. That means that in stead of spending money they don't have going carrier for carrier, tank for tank, plane for plane, they focus on cheaper solutions, mainly missiles, artillery and electronic warfare. The aim is to be able to both take out high profile and expensive targets, such as carriers, with sophisticated hyper-sonic anti-ship missiles, while denying US aircraft and missiles the ability to penetrate the Russian heartland with their air defences.
Now, what I'm saying is that if a shooting war does break out between Russia and the US, is that it won't be a roll over the same as the US has faced since Vietnam. The US would take heavy casualties, and even casualties on the US mainland, if shit got real. Who would win such a war? God knows. Probably no-one.
But people really need to understand that while Russia is far, far behind the US in it's ability to project power, it can defend itself and retaliate if forced to. A war with Russia is going to be no laughing matter.
Now, what I'm saying is that if a shooting war does break out between Russia and the US, is that it won't be a roll over the same as the US has faced since Vietnam. The US would take heavy casualties, and even casualties on the US mainland, if shit got real. Who would win such a war? God knows. Probably no-one.
But people really need to understand that while Russia is far, far behind the US in it's ability to project power, it can defend itself and retaliate if forced to. A war with Russia is going to be no laughing matter.
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