RIP Araysar
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Chris
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It's been pretty quiet geopolitically for a few years now, just some localised conflicts in second/third world shitholes.
Most interesting thing seems to be France getting kicked out of West Africa.
Chris
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So last year, Russia incorporated two regions it captured 8 years previously after dropping the pretence of them being independent and not full of unmarked Russian soldiers.DearChris
Happy Russia Reunification Day
May your tears flow abundantly, and your salt production eclipse that of Rome.
It also incorporated two regions it only controls portions of and not the regional capitals. A year later no progress has been made to capture them, in fact I think they even lost a little ground.
This is new and important information Araysar, truly geopolitical dynamite. Personally I am seething... wait... no... I've been playing Cyberpunk all day.
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Chris
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It's like you said yourself, you are deeply invested in the history and culture of Russia. This cause is very close to your heart so you will feel every triumph and loss keenly.
So when you excitedly accuse others of being salty and seething over events. This is simply a projection of how you feel as you can't imagine other people not being invested.
I'm culturally and geographically removed from this conflict. Russia declaring a national holiday to celebrate a war they haven't won and a reunification that isn't complete can't make me mad, it's just mildly amusing.
This whole discussion now is just a look into the mind of someone who has been psychologically captured and if it's possible to reason with such a person. That's why I'm still posting at least.
Chris
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Also
Araysar
what's your take on the Azerbaijan/Armenia and Serbia/Kosovo situations?
I don't know much about Azerbaijan so may have the sides wrong here, but seems like Russia was guaranteeing Armenia's position over the autonomous area and Azerbaijan have just stomped them because Russia is overstretched in Ukraine and can't intervene?
The Serbia situation seems to be the opposite with them gambling on NATO not defending Kosovo as to not further antogonise Russia?
Araysar
what's your take on the Azerbaijan/Armenia and Serbia/Kosovo situations?I don't know much about Azerbaijan so may have the sides wrong here, but seems like Russia was guaranteeing Armenia's position over the autonomous area and Azerbaijan have just stomped them because Russia is overstretched in Ukraine and can't intervene?
The Serbia situation seems to be the opposite with them gambling on NATO not defending Kosovo as to not further antogonise Russia?
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
- 80,479
- 161,078
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
- 80,479
- 161,078
Also
I don't know much about Azerbaijan so may have the sides wrong here, but seems like Russia was guaranteeing Armenia's position over the autonomous area and Azerbaijan have just stomped them because Russia is overstretched in Ukraine and can't intervene?
The Serbia situation seems to be the opposite with them gambling on NATO not defending Kosovo as to not further antogonise Russia?
Armenia decided to throw in with Globohomo recently and now it's reaping what it has sown, like so many others have done before them.
While Russia saved Armenia in 2020, it sees no reason to keep sticking it's neck out for people like this:
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Uh huh.
U.K. Prepares to Send Boots on the Ground to Ukraine | The Gateway Pundit | by Anthony Scott
British Defense Minister Grant Shapps has declared Britain’s government is planning to deploy military instructors inside of Ukraine in order to train Ukrainian forces.
www.thegatewaypundit.com
Erronius
<WoW Guild Officer>
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Also
I don't know much about Azerbaijan so may have the sides wrong here, but seems like Russia was guaranteeing Armenia's position over the autonomous area and Azerbaijan have just stomped them because Russia is overstretched in Ukraine and can't intervene?
The Serbia situation seems to be the opposite with them gambling on NATO not defending Kosovo as to not further antogonise Russia?
Part of the issue is the problem with peacekeeping forces, in this case the Russians. They are generally prohibited from initiating hostilities, have quite a few restrictions foisted upon them from the political side of the house, and on an individual basis they often don't care about the conflict they're assigned to police. This is an almost universal reality for peacekeepers everywhere. It was that way when I was in the military, and we went through 'peacekeeper' training. I'm willing to bet it's the same for the Russian peacekeepers. And they've been in the region for decades now.
Your idea of 'intervention' is an interesting one. Do you expect Russia to mobilize and directly fight against Azerbaijan and their backer, Turkey? Do you expect Russia to threaten a war footing to gain a forced peace, even though they've yet to attempt that in the region since the fall of the USSR?
Russia didn't mobilize to intervene in 2020, either, and this was before Russia rolled into Ukraine. So it wasn't an issue of Russia being overstretched due to Ukraine. It was Russia hoping the peacekeeping force would be enough and trying to encourage both sides to go to the negotiating table.
The Russian peacekeeping forces could have been enough this time, except the Azeris just fucking ignored them.
After the 2020 conflict (44 days), Azerbaijan basically blockaded Nagorno-Karabakh. So then the Russian peacekeepers were forced to escort supply traffic into and out of the region, but that was never enough and the Azeris have managed to slowly strangle the Armenians.
Azerbaijan (and Turkey) have played this pretty well, especially since the '90s when Armenia came out on top. Back then both sides were relying on Soviet equipment that was left behind, as well as their own veterans. But since then Turkey has put a lot of time and effort into training and equipping the Azeris while Armenian capability has diminished. Russia hasn't really been willing to get themselves dragged into a highly divisive regional conflict (they aren't the US, LOL), and to be sure it's gotten worse since 2022. But they've NEVER shown that they were willing to throw down with the Azeris (and by extension, Turkey) and the Turks knew it. This is just a continuation of a decades long conflict and Armenia has been slowly realizing just how fucked they were if they couldn't get anyone else involved.
Another big part of this is the absolutely terrible politicians the region has had, over the decades, on both sides. Pashinyan is just the most recent. He's an ex journalist who has never liked Armenia being allied with Russia (he's talked about this many times), was imprisoned for encouraging protests and violence, and eventually embraced an outright revolution in 2018 after losing an election that was VERY similar to Euromaidan in Ukraine (his having stated that he wished for a"non-violent, velvet, popular revolution")
...of course, he's a self-styled 'revolutionary' who just HAPPENED to find himself in bed with Western NGOs. Purely a coincidence, I'm sure!
The West always goes looking for agitators and factions they can throw their support behind, and they hit the jackpot with Pashinyan.
If you want to find something interesting to read, go look up the aftermath of the defeat in 2020, including all of the politicians and military leaders critical of Pashinyan, outright calling him a traitor, and questioning why their military was never fully mobilized against Azerbaijan (before Pashinyan then sued for peace and signed territory away to Azerbaijan). And all this from a guy that THEN went on the attack and blamed RUSSIA and the CSTO for not doing more.
And now this has been repeated yet again.
I think it was
Aaron
who recently posted some stuff from Duran, and while agree with a lot of it I'm not yet sure that I'm fully on board with the idea that this was all just an elaborate ruse or excuse by Pashinyan, in order to move closer to the West and put Armenia into a better position politically speaking.Another interesting tidbit...Pashinyan was whining and making threats RE: Russia and the CSTO long before this latest incident. This was from May:
Armenia’s Pashinyan gives up Karabakh, abandons Russia-led CSTO
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was quoted on Monday (22 May) indicating sweeping changes in his country’s policy vis-à-vis its arch-foe Azerbaijan and its ally Russia.
www.euractiv.com
Chris
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Thanks for the great reply.Part of the issue is the problem with peacekeeping forces, in this case the Russians. They are generally prohibited from initiating hostilities, have quite a few restrictions foisted upon them from the political side of the house, and on an individual basis they often don't care about the conflict they're assigned to police. This is an almost universal reality for peacekeepers everywhere. It was that way when I was in the military, and we went through 'peacekeeper' training. I'm willing to bet it's the same for the Russian peacekeepers. And they've been in the region for decades now.
Your idea of 'intervention' is an interesting one. Do you expect Russia to mobilize and directly fight against Azerbaijan and their backer, Turkey? Do you expect Russia to threaten a war footing to gain a forced peace, even though they've yet to attempt that in the region since the fall of the USSR?
Russia didn't mobilize to intervene in 2020, either, and this was before Russia rolled into Ukraine. So it wasn't an issue of Russia being overstretched due to Ukraine. It was Russia hoping the peacekeeping force would be enough and trying to encourage both sides to go to the negotiating table.
The Russian peacekeeping forces could have been enough this time, except the Azeris just fucking ignored them.
After the 2020 conflict (44 days), Azerbaijan basically blockaded Nagorno-Karabakh. So then the Russian peacekeepers were forced to escort supply traffic into and out of the region, but that was never enough and the Azeris have managed to slowly strangle the Armenians.
Azerbaijan (and Turkey) have played this pretty well, especially since the '90s when Armenia came out on top. Back then both sides were relying on Soviet equipment that was left behind, as well as their own veterans. But since then Turkey has put a lot of time and effort into training and equipping the Azeris while Armenian capability has diminished. Russia hasn't really been willing to get themselves dragged into a highly divisive regional conflict (they aren't the US, LOL), and to be sure it's gotten worse since 2022. But they've NEVER shown that they were willing to throw down with the Azeris (and by extension, Turkey) and the Turks knew it. This is just a continuation of a decades long conflict and Armenia has been slowly realizing just how fucked they were if they couldn't get anyone else involved.
Another big part of this is the absolutely terrible politicians the region has had, over the decades, on both sides. Pashinyan is just the most recent. He's an ex journalist who has never liked Armenia being allied with Russia (he's talked about this many times), was imprisoned for encouraging protests and violence, and eventually embraced an outright revolution in 2018 after losing an election that was VERY similar to Euromaidan in Ukraine (his having stated that he wished for a"non-violent, velvet, popular revolution")
...of course, he's a self-styled 'revolutionary' who just HAPPENED to find himself in bed with Western NGOs. Purely a coincidence, I'm sure!
The West always goes looking for agitators and factions they can throw their support behind, and they hit the jackpot with Pashinyan.
If you want to find something interesting to read, go look up the aftermath of the defeat in 2020, including all of the politicians and military leaders critical of Pashinyan, outright calling him a traitor, and questioning why their military was never fully mobilized against Azerbaijan (before Pashinyan then sued for peace and signed territory away to Azerbaijan). And all this from a guy that THEN went on the attack and blamed RUSSIA and the CSTO for not doing more.
And now this has been repeated yet again.
I think it was
Another interesting tidbit...Pashinyan was whining and making threats RE: Russia and the CSTO long before this latest incident. This was from May:
Armenia’s Pashinyan gives up Karabakh, abandons Russia-led CSTO
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was quoted on Monday (22 May) indicating sweeping changes in his country’s policy vis-à-vis its arch-foe Azerbaijan and its ally Russia.
Russia has shown it's willingness to intervene on it's borders on behalf of autonomous regions in Georgia and Ukraine.
So I'd expect a threat of some sort of direct intervention, or if the Turkey alliance is too strong, a proxy war.
Yet you are posting about Turkey being a stronger partner delivering better NATO equipment. Seems like Russia is reaching the limitations if what it can do and is now being outmaneuvered by individual NATO countries.
I have more sympathy for Armenia than Turkey by the way. I'd prefer a Russian win in that theatre, though I do have limited knowledge of the situation.
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Chris
Potato del Grande
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
- 80,479
- 161,078
Chris
Potato del Grande
- 19,436
- -10,732
Erronius
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Armenia isn't on Russia's border, though.
Another big factor is that Armenians aren't really what I'd consider to be 'ethnic Russians'. Which is one of the common threads between S. Ossetia, Donetsk, Luhansk, etc.
But why would you expect that when that was never in the cards, post USSR?
Why would you hinge an argument on either point, post 2022, when they never did either in the previous 20-30 years?
It seems like you're really reaching on this. Maybe it's just not the argument you thought it was.
Why would Russia want to risk worsening relations with Turkey, when Turkey is the closest thing to a friend that Russia has in NATO?
Why would Russia want to risk a conflict over a disputed Armenian territory that no one could agree on the borders for, when Pashinyan is openly anti-Russian and courting the West as their new BFF?
For all I know Putin hung up the phone after talking to him and said "Fuck that guy"
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Erronius
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...why?
We already should take our nukes out of Turkey, IMHO.
But why would we put nukes in Azerbaijan? Is Turkey not close enough? (it is)
Why put nukes in an even less secure and less reliable nation than Turkey? That makes no sense.
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Chris
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There is no reason to put nukes in Azerbaijan.
I just asked Araysar to imagine them there.