Survivor

Funny how?

Elurin_sl said:

Tony's decision to pull his idol out is baffling to me. The power of it is that you don't have to tell anyone about it, and it's a last "oh shit" kind of play.

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With the Madea idol, you don't have to keep it hidden. If they vote for you, you just play it after the votes are read. Besides, as we saw with Russell, idols can be used just as effectively overtly as they are covertly. In fact, I'd say it's a pretty even tossup on overt/covert effectiveness. Think about how many people have been voted out with an idol in their pocket, simply because they kept it a secret and didn't use it advantageously.

Kirun_sl said:

With the Madea idol, you don't have to keep it hidden. If they vote for you, you just play it after the votes are read. Besides, as we saw with Russell, idols can be used just as effectively overtly as they are covertly. In fact, I'd say it's a pretty even tossup on overt/covert effectiveness. Think about how many people have been voted out with an idol in their pocket, simply because they kept it a secret and didn't use it advantageously.

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Letting people know you have it could provide the motivation for them to vote for you that wasn't there before. With normal idols, far more people have gotten blindsided after revealing it to their alliance than people who have kept it secret. Information is key in this game, and the more you have that others lack the better.

There are times when you can use it to your advantage (Yul did it perfectly), but I still think that idols are far more successful when kept secret.

Elurin_sl said:

After half the people just said they'd vote for Tony, his alliance would have no choice but to try and get rid of the idol. Otherwise you're saying, "here's your million dollars, sir."

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It's happened plenty of times before and it'll likely happen again. Barring some miraculous blindside by Spencer/Tasha, Tony has already won, especially now that he found the idol. Trish is probably the only one who might be able to convince the jury that she made moves, but I don't think she's charismatic enough to pull it off.

Kirun_sl said:

It's happened plenty of times before and it'll likely happen again. Barring some miraculous blindside by Spencer/Tasha, Tony has already won, especially now that he found the idol. Trish is probably the only one who might be able to convince the jury that she made moves, but I don't think she's charismatic enough to pull it off.

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Say the alliance holds tight and the final four is Tony, Trish, Woo and Jefra (or Kass, whoever you want here). Tony's idol is no longer in play. If Tony doesn't win the immunity challenge at 4 I can't imagine that 2 of the remaining 3 will go along with him. It happens, like you said, but I think Trish at least would be smart enough to know Tony has to go, and Kass would probably go along with her. Take it a step further and say it's a final 2 this season (as rumored), and that's another vote he'll have to get through or win the challenge. I wouldn't say that he's already won by any means, there's a lot still to happen.

Adam12_sl said:

Say the alliance holds tight and the final four is Tony, Trish, Woo and Jefra (or Kass, whoever you want here). Tony's idol is no longer in play. If Tony doesn't win the immunity challenge at 4 I can't imagine that 2 of the remaining 3 will go along with him. It happens, like you said, but I think Trish at least would be smart enough to know Tony has to go, and Kass would probably go along with her. Take it a step further and say it's a final 2 this season (as rumored), and that's another vote he'll have to get through or win the challenge. I wouldn't say that he's already won by any means, there's a lot still to happen.

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You seriously think Trish is going to be the one to turn on Tony, even after how quickly she fell right back into lockstep with him? Just moments earlier he had completely blindsided and lied to her face, yet she says on camera, "Well, Tony had good reasons and I trust him". She isn't flipping. Woo is also solidly in his camp, because he'll just pull the "Man, I stuck my neck out for you! LJ wanted you out!". Jeffra he'll be able to completely intimidate. Kass is the only possible wrench in his plans, but she won't have the numbers to do it, unless she switches sides right now. Problem is, he still has the Madea idol. Like I said, barring some crazy shenanigans(an immunity run by Spencer/Tasha) or something completely out of character(which we don't see the entirety of, thanks to editing), Tony has the game on lockdown.

I'm drunk but I saw Jeffra had full hair pits and I'd still nail her. That blue bikini and her is so hot. It's to the point I forget about Morgan. In this thread I know it's sacrilege but I still want to nail Alexis before Jefra so all hope is not lost for me and Morgan is an afterthought.

Kirun_sl said:

You seriously think Trish is going to be the one to turn on Tony, even after how quickly she fell right back into lockstep with him? Just moments earlier he had completely blindsided and lied to her face, yet she says on camera, "Well, Tony had good reasons and I trust him". She isn't flipping. Woo is also solidly in his camp, because he'll just pull the "Man, I stuck my neck out for you! LJ wanted you out!". Jeffra he'll be able to completely intimidate. Kass is the only possible wrench in his plans, but she won't have the numbers to do it, unless she switches sides right now. Problem is, he still has the Madea idol. Like I said, barring some crazy shenanigans(an immunity run by Spencer/Tasha) or something completely out of character(which we don't see the entirety of, thanks to editing), Tony has the game on lockdown.

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30 day avatar bet? Tony doesn't win this game.

I actually give Tony the best odds, but I'll take the field AND give you the Russell Hantz caveat. So really the bet is that Tony is in the jury for the final vote.

Edit: It's Survivor, so let's make it 39 days. If Tony gets to the end and gets Hantz'd, it's a draw.

Elurin_sl said:

Tony's decision to pull his idol out is baffling to me. The power of it is that you don't have to tell anyone about it, and it's a last "oh shit" kind of play. It loses a ton of its value ifanyoneknows you have it. I can't imagine they've all bought into his "Haha, jk, it was fake" crap, and he already knows people want him gone. This just gives his alliance all the more reason to turn on him.

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Tony still has one advantage with that idol that no one else will ever have: He's the only person who knows how it works. Everyone else just knows it has "special powers" and that's it. I could see Tony revealing his idol as a way of leveraging that to his advantage. He could tell them it does whatever he wants and they have no way of knowing if he's lying or not.

Kirun_sl said:

It's happened plenty of times before and it'll likely happen again. Barring some miraculous blindside by Spencer/Tasha, Tony has already won, especially now that he found the idol. Trish is probably the only one who might be able to convince the jury that she made moves, but I don't think she's charismatic enough to pull it off.

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The game is certainly Tony's to lose, and I still think that's a possibility. He may have played a very strategic game to get to the place he's at, but he's made many enemies by doing so. Tony's social game has been weak, and I'm not certain that once he starts getting called out he'll be cool-headed enough to convince people to vote for him, particularly if he ends up sitting next to someone as non-offensive as Jefra or Woo.

I also have to wonder how the Medea idol might work into it and if that could complicate things for him. If people vote him out and he has to use it, someone could argue that he doesn't deserve to win since he was technically voted out of the game. A similar argument was used against Lil in Pearl Islands and contributed to her losing to Sandra. The circumstances are obviously not identical, but someone who doesn't want Tony to win could use that argument to sway votes the other way. Whether it's an argument that works or not would be interesting to see.

Adam12_sl said:

30 day avatar bet? Tony doesn't win this game.

I actually give Tony the best odds, but I'll take the field AND give you the Russell Hantz caveat. So really the bet is that Tony is in the jury for the final vote.

Edit: It's Survivor, so let's make it 39 days. If Tony gets to the end and gets Hantz'd, it's a draw.

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If he gets Hantz'd it's a draw? I think Tony is far and away the best player of the season, I also think he'll be sitting in the final tribal. However, there'salwaysthe possibility of pettiness. We've already seen it being Kass' sole reason for voting out Sarah, Sarah herself before her last tribal and again at Ponderosa, Morgan with the, "You're just mad because you're 40!" to Kass. I could also see Trish jumping ship, once she gets around LJ and the rest, assuming Tony turns on her(one of the reasons why I think Ponderosa is horrible. Too much collusion).

I'll take the bet if Tony is sitting at final tribal, I win. If he's not, you win.

Kirun_sl said:

I'll take the bet if Tony is sitting at final tribal, I win. If he's not, you win.

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Ok, deal.

Before this season I've never watched Suvivor. And I must say, this shit is not particularly entertaining. Especially with Morgan gone -- not even much to look at now. Were past seasons more thrilling? I'm not really understanding the popularity of this show.

But then he wouldn't have anything to complain about.

Tony just threw the game.