I think Trish will win as long as she isn't sitting next to Tony, Spencer or Tasha. That's about right as far as "deserving it" goes taking social/strategic/physical play all into consideration. She's done very well, and as long as she can effectively articulate her game to the jury she'll have a good shot at winning. This scenario is a pretty big long shot, though.
Survivor
- Thread starter Gravel
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
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Yeah, for sure. It might even be worse than Russell/Natalie if things keep going this way, as Woo has done even less in the game than Natalie did. I don't really see a scenario where this happens, though. I think Woo will take the fall for Tony sometime over the next two votes while Tony is immune, Tony will go as soon as he is vulnerable, and Kirun will be wearing a new avatar for 39 days!
SimSimSalabim
Molten Core Raider
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I just don't get the Tony-Hantz comparisons (regarding game play, he may very well get 'Hantzed' in a final vote), especially not by the players (was it Tasha and Kass?). Hantz was notorious for being a bully to your face and then getting you voted out. He was a joke and that is why he never got votes. Maybe I'm forgetting something, but I can't remember a moment where Tony was actually a dick to someone's face or even in confessionals (another thing Hantz is notorious for). Tony acts both kindly towards other players and often is complementary of them in his confessionals. More often than not, he comes off as the sane and reasonable one in any conversation he has had. Like when he was apologizing to Kass for coming off as condescending (which he wasn't) and her only response was "good for you".
I think they even justified their comparison by saying something along the lines of "Tony is a bully, anyone that has made a move against him has been sent home." Can't remember the exact quote, but whatever it was I laughed my ass off at the ridiculousness and naivety of it.
I think they even justified their comparison by saying something along the lines of "Tony is a bully, anyone that has made a move against him has been sent home." Can't remember the exact quote, but whatever it was I laughed my ass off at the ridiculousness and naivety of it.
I didn't see it before this episode because no one said anything about it. As long as the perception of a bully isn't there, then it's a non-issue. Now that it has been brought up, though, it could mean that everyone has that perception (I still don't think so, but we'll see). What Kass doesn't realize, though, is that the jury hates her 10x more than they hate him, and Tony would probably sweep a final tribal against her. She's equating Russell-like play to aggressiveness, but fails to realize that Tony is (to this point) much more likable than a real Russell type player. Too bad Tasha had to open her mouth about it.
All of that said, I still think that the only person left who can beat Tony head to head in a final vote is Spencer. Spencer > Tony >> Trish >>>> Woo > Kass.
All of that said, I still think that the only person left who can beat Tony head to head in a final vote is Spencer. Spencer > Tony >> Trish >>>> Woo > Kass.
BrutulTM
Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
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That is exactly how I would rank it as well. Kass is horrible and can't possibly get a vote. Spencer probably has to win out to make it though, I don't see anyone wanting to sit next to him. He is the favorite in every one especially with Tash gone but winning 3 in a row is damn hard to do. If Tony goes to the end with Kass and Woo I bet he wins a unanimous victory unless the jury is more butt-hurt than I think. Woo could pull some votes if the people Tony blindsided decide to punish him for it but I would be pretty surprised if he won.
Pumpkin Thief
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
- 1,488
- 13,940
Great episode.
Not much to say since I agree with what's been said.
Woo has some B-ball skillz!
Not much to say since I agree with what's been said.
Woo has some B-ball skillz!
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Anyone been watching the Ponderosa episodes? I'm wondering what the consensus is with them. I see them all rolling their eyes at Tony, but that could just be editing. I feel like Sarah and Morgan could both be very poisonous to Ponderosa though, and cause the entire place to vote as one.
Kass is so obnoxious. People getting upset when they think they hear something is one of my pet peeves.
Kass is so obnoxious. People getting upset when they think they hear something is one of my pet peeves.
Lanx
<Prior Amod>
- 65,214
- 147,029
next weeks target.
spencer or trish
these are the only 2 ppl that even have a > 1% chance of winning over tony, unless we have a spiteful jury.
tony's best option is to vote out spencer right away if he doesn't win immunity.
that way both spencer and trish have time to convince the jury to vote for tony.
rather than vote for tony, more like they will argue that he's just the "most deserving" and the beauties are dumb so they'd listen to the smart ppl.
i think it's a final two season so
tony looses:
tony v. spencer (hands down)
tony v. trish (if spiteful jury, girls hate trish tho)
tony v. wu (only if total spiteful jury)
is next week family eps? they have to right? or maybe get rid of it entirely, those episodes are the worst.
(imo, the only good family eps panama where cirie's husband came and she just ordered him around to do all the camp work while she and aras rested)
spencer or trish
these are the only 2 ppl that even have a > 1% chance of winning over tony, unless we have a spiteful jury.
tony's best option is to vote out spencer right away if he doesn't win immunity.
that way both spencer and trish have time to convince the jury to vote for tony.
rather than vote for tony, more like they will argue that he's just the "most deserving" and the beauties are dumb so they'd listen to the smart ppl.
i think it's a final two season so
tony looses:
tony v. spencer (hands down)
tony v. trish (if spiteful jury, girls hate trish tho)
tony v. wu (only if total spiteful jury)
is next week family eps? they have to right? or maybe get rid of it entirely, those episodes are the worst.
(imo, the only good family eps panama where cirie's husband came and she just ordered him around to do all the camp work while she and aras rested)
Namon
Blackwing Lair Raider
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- 2,565
I am kind of surprised that Tasha and Spencer did not use the fight and Tony's paranoia again this episode to team up against Kass. I really think that was a bad move to set up a weird split vote to try to flush out two idols. It would have never worked. However, knocking out Kass, while knocking out a definite no final vote, would have at least kept them both alive for another round...
SimSimSalabim
Molten Core Raider
- 874
- 351
Preview didn't show family visit, and I think its the second to last episode. Doesn't mean it isn't next week, but I can't remember a season where it wasn't in the episode preview.
Kirun
Buzzfeed Editor
- 19,235
- 15,625
I would've been more inclined to believe Tony didn't have a chance in hell, until I saw the "fallout" from the LJ vote. After that, I knew that Woo and Trish were wrapped around his finger.
Theyreallyneed to separate people at Ponderosa, in my opinion. I think the possibility of collusion is way too great with them all sitting there discussing things for days.
Kass has got to be one of the most unlikeable people in recent memory. She has such a grating personality.
I really think people overestimate how great of a player Spencer is. He's definitely been a solid player and you could make the argument that he's never had the numbers to be great, but great players figure out a way to work against the numbers. Russel was outnumbered as hell, yet pretty much ran the game by playing off of other people's weaknesses.
Soygen
The Dirty Dozen For the Price of One
- 28,431
- 44,760
He's made one move post-merge (getting Tony to freak out over Jeffra) and gotten a really good edit.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 39,381
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I got around to watching the Ponderosa videos (except Tasha) and they seem to have really slimmed back the amount they show. Outside of Morgan and Sarah bitching about Kass, there hasn't been much talk of the other players in the game. Jeremiah had a short part of Jefra's clip where he said he was disappointed that she didn't vote with him, and he saw her vote coming, and LJ had a portion where he was disappointed she didn't take advantage and vote out the guys. But otherwise it's just about them being dirty, losing weight, and eating. Kind of disappointing that they've scaled back the Ponderosa stuff so much.
Oh, even when I made the bet I thought he had the best chance of winning, let alone just making the finals (I said as much in the post). I made the bet because you said it'd take a miracle from Tasha and Spencer to get him out, and I just don't think that's true. That's why it's a bet though, I never thought either of us had it in the bag. The only confidence I had was that even though Tony was the favorite I was giving him a <50% shot at winning. Right now I'd put him at >50%, but still not a guarantee.
Totally agree on the Ponderosa part. They need to be separated from each other as much as possible.
Lanx
<Prior Amod>
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- 147,029
big brother has their own version of ponderosa, BUT "game talk" is strictly prohibited, the only time you're allowed to talk "game" is when the cameras are rolling. otherwise it's a horrible ponderosa.
look at all the videos with lj and jerimiah, it's like they're stuck in hell with these vile bitches.
look at all the videos with lj and jerimiah, it's like they're stuck in hell with these vile bitches.
Araxen
Golden Baronet of the Realm
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I really don't get why people are just content to go with the flow this late in the game. It has to be even super obvious to them that Tony needs to go. I don't buy the whole jury is pissed off at Tony one bit. He's actually been a pretty nice guy and hasn't been a douche, imho. If he's there at the end you have to vote for him to win. His game has been vastly superior to everyone else. Spencer would be up there but really has had such shitty luck. It's a shame because he really knows how to play the game too.
Soygen
The Dirty Dozen For the Price of One
- 28,431
- 44,760
Yeah, Tony is basically being saved by idols simply by saying he has one. Everyone is so scared to be the "other" vote if he uses his idol, they simply don't vote for him at all. It's idiotic in the 'big picture', but I understand it from the selfish/single-player point of view. Unfortunately, if they make it to the end with Tony, it doesn't really matter for the most part. Tony has played a pretty good social game, though he was getting a bit bullyish/douchey with Kass last episode. Everyone pretty much hates Kass, though, so that probably won't hurt him much.