Survivor

Elurin_sl said:

How so? He just guaranteed himself top 4. That's assuming they try to vote him out the next two tribals. More than likely, he's in the finals. He really just needs to get Spencer out in any one of the following 3 or 4 votes (depending on how many are left). I have a hard time seeing how he loses this season.

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If Spencer or Tash get to finals, they win 100% due to bitter jury.

Elurin_sl said:

How so? He just guaranteed himself top 4. That's assuming they try to vote him out the next two tribals. More than likely, he's in the finals. He really just needs to get Spencer out in any one of the following 3 or 4 votes (depending on how many are left). I have a hard time seeing how he loses this season.

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He already had a guaranteed final 4. No one was going to target him this tribal and he had the two pocketed idols that are worthless after the final 5 vote. Now he's reinforced the notion that he isn't to be trusted, and that he's playing balls out. He's in the terrible position of not only being the biggest mover that now everyone knows about (no one will want to sit next to him), AND he's really start to piss people off (he may not have enough votes to win). Before this vote his game, as far as what he had shown to the others, was much more subtle.

Anyway, Tony's out at 4 and Kirun gets to sport a new avatar!

I think Tony has done much better socially than the man they keep comparing him to: Hantz. Now, there are definitely people who would win against him if they sat beside him in the final 2/3, and those are the ones he needs to get out (Trish, Spencer, Tasha). There is no way he loses to Woo or Kass, and really I could put Trish here as well, because while she made some awesome plays early on after the merge, she's starting to fade a bit now. I do think Tony's move to vote out Jeffra made sense, because now there is no way he can be out numbered. However, I also give credit to Spencer for gnawing on Tony's biggest weakness, and being able to successfully pull off averting votes away from himself and Tasha. Also keep in mind the two times Tony flipped, he voted out the outliers and not his core alliance. It could be much easier for him to mend those bridges.

I feel like if Spencer was going to outlast Tony in the end then this episode, in particular, would have been edited differently. They would have had Spencer masterminding Jefra's exit by planting the seed in Tony's head and then Tony 'stupidly' falling for Spencer's plan by voting out Jefraonlybecause Spencer told him she was going to blindside him. Instead, they edited it as Tony being the mastermind. While Spencer did bring up the idea to Tony, they show Tony as wanting Jefra out and they show his reasoning behind it (girls vs. guys numbers).

Spencer is still a bigger threat due to the jury's makeup and his long time as the underdog. Tony is safe for the next 2 votes, so unless Spencer wins immunity I expect him to be out sometime during the next 2 episodes.

I was thinking the editing was indicating that Tony and Spencer somehow make it to the end, and Tasha slips and loses a late immunity. Spencer is a massive threat as well as Tasha, and I'm definitely thinking what the hell is going on in Tony's head. But so far every one of this crazy ass moves have panned out...

Adam12_sl said:

He already had a guaranteed final 4. No one was going to target him this tribal and he had the two pocketed idols that are worthless after the final 5 vote. Now he's reinforced the notion that he isn't to be trusted, and that he's playing balls out. He's in the terrible position of not only being the biggest mover that now everyone knows about (no one will want to sit next to him), AND he's really start to piss people off (he may not have enough votes to win). Before this vote his game, as far as what he had shown to the others, was much more subtle.

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He had amostlyguaranteed final 4. By blindsiding Jefra, he ensures that the girls can't form an "all-girl" alliance on him, should Tasha keep winning immunity, or should they send Spencer and Tasha packing. By finding the second idol, he can basically force out whoever he wants next. Plus, if he wins individual immunity, he can mold the final 4 even further. Yes, his idols only take him to the final 4, but as long as Woo and Trish are 2/3, he's got it in the bag.

I think his best play going forward, would be to force out Kass, followed by Spencer/Tasha. If he does that, he can convince Woo/Trish that their only shot of winning is by sitting next to a "villain". If they try to blindside/vote him out and sit next to Tash/Spencer, there's absolutely no way they'll win. There's no way they'll win against Tony either, but he can at least make an argument for it thatslightlymakes sense.

I don't know why Spencer is still in this game. It is an interesting balancing act he has pulled off by being a huge threat, but also never being in a position of power to do much with it. It is crazy to be so good, but have such little leverage that your competition just let's you buzz around like an annoying fly. I have never seen anything like it in all these years of Survivor.

Kirun_sl said:

If he does that, he can convince Woo/Trish that their only shot of winning is by sitting next to a "villain". If they try to blindside/vote him out and sit next to Tash/Spencer, there's absolutely no way they'll win. There's no way they'll win against Tony either, but he can at least make an argument for it thatslightlymakes sense.

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I'm not sure Tony even needs to go that far. Woo seems to basically do whatever Tony tells him to since, you know, they have that psychic connection where Woo has the exact same idea as Tony as soon as Tony verbalizes it... Kass also likely wouldn't be an issue since she's smart enough to realize Tony is the only one who is a bigger villain than she is, and therefore her best chance at winning. The wildcard is obviously Trish. She has shown she has no problems making moves, so it's just a matter of whether or not she decides to try something or remain comfortable in the increasingly unstable alliance.

The deciding factor will be how he's able to sell this vote. He was able to justify voting out LJ with the story that it was a preemptive strike since LJ was allegedly targeting Woo. Jefra is a whole other matter. She had her opportunity to flip and proved herself loyal to the alliance, so it's going to be a much harder sell. Trish has bought all of his lies so far, but she'd be incredibly stupid to not start questioning her place at this point. I don't think Tony would necessarily win her over by pointing out he's the biggest villain, however. Trish is too emotional of a player, and I'd guess would be more likely to want a backstabber out than to take him to the end.

BrutulTM_sl said:

If Spencer makes it to the end I think he deserves to win. He can NOT get a break yet he's still here after all this time. If he doesn't make it to the end I hope he gets another chance to play because I think he is the best player this season but he just can't get anything to go his way. Tony isn't bad and he certainly hustles, but he is too easy to manipulate and too impulsive to call a really good player and he has gotten a ton of breaks this season. That said, I would be okay with him winning as well. The only way I will be really pissed off is if Wu or Kass wins. Wu has been a total coat tail rider the whole season and since her one big dumb move, Kass has as well.

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Tony's paranoia is really what separates him from a mastermind like Boston Rob or Hantz. Both of those players would've been able to see when they were being manipulated and wouldn't be so quick to change their game plan. Spencer never would've made it anywhere near as far as he has under those two, because they would've immediately realized what a strategic threat he is. He almost would've been the first one to go post-merge since the longer someone like Spencer sticks around, the bigger of a threat they become. Because Spencer's been able to squeak by week after week, he's been able to pick up Tony's weakness and play it to his advantage. It's not hard to picture a scenario where Spencer is able to use that to make it to the end.

Cantatus_sl said:

I don't think Tony would necessarily win her over by pointing out he's the biggest villain, however. Trish is too emotional of a player, and I'd guess would be more likely to want a backstabber out than to take him to the end.

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That's why you don't sell her the villain angle...yet. You play up the fact that Jefra was making "deals" with Spencer/Tasha/Jeramiah, and sell her on the fact that this late in the game, you need people that are 100% honest. It's a load of horseshit, but you saw it after the LJ play just how quickly Trish forgave Tony, understood his reasoning, and trusted him completely. Sure, it's going to take some wooing, but he can easily pull her back into the fold. They've been together since day one and she obviously feels like they have a "bond". Now, once you get rid of Kass and Tash/Spencer,thenyou sell her on the villain angle. At that point, you leavethatas her only viable option of winning, and she'll follow right along, yet again.

He can't keep Kass around. Kass is too smart and too much of a talker. She's going to start figuring out that she has to take out Tony, Spencer, and Tasha to win the game. Essentially, she's the last "dangerous" social player left. Tasha is somewhat dangerous also, but if you take her numbers by voting out Kass and Spencer, she won't really have any options. Even now, only immunity has been saving her. She'd have been amuchbetter target than Jefra, but they couldn't vote for her. Taking Tash out would've eliminated a girlandkept Tony loyal to the alliance.

Oh, I definitely agree he can't take Kass to the end. She's the only one of the ones that have played little-to-no game that could talk herself into a win. Her sitting at the end not only justifies the move she made against Spencer's alliance, but going up against Tony also allows her to make the argument that she stuck loyal to her new alliance and isn't responsible for either LJ or Jefra being voted out.

Yeah, no one likes Kass. I'd be shocked to see her get a single vote.

Finally got to watch it.

Kass is a royal cuntbag. She dislikes Spencer because..well, i'm not sure.....I guess because she fucked Spencer over and he had the audacity to not like it and show a very small amount of disdain for it.

I'm good with either Spencer or Tony winning. Tasha is lights out on those imm challenges so I wouldn't be upset with her winning either. I suppose the same for Trish since she is the embodiment of an 'Inverse Horse Whisperer' and has done a great job socially, talking idiots like Kass and Jefra into her fold when it was needed. It's just her voice..it makes me want to mouth-fuck a pissed off cobra.

A very entertaining home stretch though - I'm enjoying this!

Yeah, I hear ya, meng. Not saying I think she will win, just saying she has played a solid social game and I recognize it.

Also, Woo is no longer Liu Kang. He is Asian-Fabio, but minus the ability to truck some challenges.

Might not be remembering correctly, but I don't think Jud/Fabio started winning challenges until they were down to the final 5/6 and he had to win to stay in the game. Woo could still do that! Then he just has to be sitting next to kass and trish and cry during final tribal and he wins.