The Astronomy Thread

Kajiimagi

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Anyone got a reliable link to Polaris Dawn? I cannot find anywhere that's not out of date. You would think Elon Musk would be touting the shit out of this but nope. I get it, they need reliable weather for take off AND landing right in the heart of hurricane season. I want to watch this live, not a stream on Insta after the fact.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Anyone got a reliable link to Polaris Dawn? I cannot find anywhere that's not out of date. You would think Elon Musk would be touting the shit out of this but nope. I get it, they need reliable weather for take off AND landing right in the heart of hurricane season. I want to watch this live, not a stream on Insta after the fact.
My guess is SpaceX will be livestreamimg it on Twitter.
 

Captain Suave

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Anyone got a reliable link to Polaris Dawn? I cannot find anywhere that's not out of date. You would think Elon Musk would be touting the shit out of this but nope. I get it, they need reliable weather for take off AND landing right in the heart of hurricane season. I want to watch this live, not a stream on Insta after the fact.
It'll be here. They always livestream on YouTube, also.

 
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Captain Suave

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Big lols if true


Thrusters did have problems, but control retained.


 
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Ukerric

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I LOLed at the "we're moving the Starliner from the ISS as fast as reasonable immediately". No one felt safe with a spaceship doing the one-second beep.
 

Cybsled

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It is extremely unlikely you're going to see a crewed Mars mission in 4 years.

Even if SpaceX decided to flip off NASA and go it alone, that time table just does not seem realistic. Starship is still a work in progress - even if they get it to the point where they can reliably get it to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere and be caught by the tower, you'll need a completely different landing system for Mars due to the thin atmosphere and complete lack of support infrastructure.
 
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BrutulTM

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I even heard Elon say that he didn't think there would be a Mars Colony in his lifetime and if anything he's hopelessly optimistic on this stuff. I imagine they're going to the moon first and there will be a lot of steps in between.
 

Burns

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It is extremely unlikely you're going to see a crewed Mars mission in 4 years.

Even if SpaceX decided to flip off NASA and go it alone, that time table just does not seem realistic. Starship is still a work in progress - even if they get it to the point where they can reliably get it to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere and be caught by the tower, you'll need a completely different landing system for Mars due to the thin atmosphere and complete lack of support infrastructure.
With how hard I've heard SpaceX pushes it's people I would give it a little higher chance, and just say that the odds are against them, but still maybe around a 25% chance all the milestones go their way.

For landing on Mars, I thought the plan was to land it standing up, like the Falcon rockets, due to the lower gravity. Dunno how they would find an area they would want to go to and also be flat enough to land like that though.
 

Tuco

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Strategically wrong scheduling.

Say we're doing X by Y date, and you'll be more likely to hit Z date than if you plan to hit Z date.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I'm not disagreeing but I will say I don't know if I will be voting against the guy who helped come up with self driving cars and rockets that can land themselves. If anyone on earth can hit this timeline it's him.

This brings up a question they touch on in the movie the Martian. If Elon and SpaceX land people on Mars without government help, does he get to claim part of Mars as his own?
 

Captain Suave

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I'm not disagreeing but I will say I don't know if I will be voting against the guy who helped come up with self driving cars and rockets that can land themselves. If anyone on earth can hit this timeline it's him.
While Elon has accomplished all that (notable exception of FSD), he's been 50% optimistic about literally every timeline except perhaps the first SpaceX launch.
 
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Big Phoenix

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This brings up a question they touch on in the movie the Martian. If Elon and SpaceX land people on Mars without government help, does he get to claim part of Mars as his own?
Id put money on the globohomos passing some UN treaty or global agreement saying private entities cant lay claim to off world land/bodies if looked like he was gonna succeed.
 

Big Phoenix

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I mean... they're free to go there and tell him he can't.
Considering the realities and complexities of launching something like Starliner, it would be trivially easy to simply prevent him from launching.

It is extremely unlikely you're going to see a crewed Mars mission in 4 years.
Yeah id say 8-10 is a bit more optimistic. They still have to find a suitable site, get their infrastructure there and make sure its all working then launch a crewed mission.

I could see a flyby and say a landing on Deimos/Phobos in 4. That would be significantly easier.