I just mean that Elon can say yes here and then basically do whatever he wants on Mars. The difference beteween "I own this" and "Fine, but I'm here and you can't get here" is just words.
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I just mean that Elon can say yes here and then basically do whatever he wants on Mars. The difference beteween "I own this" and "Fine, but I'm here and you can't get here" is just words.
Sanrith Descartes
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Cybsled
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Deimos/Phobos are basically just asteroids caught by the gravity of Mars and it is theorized that they aren't even all that solid due to the gravitational forces at work on them - it would actually be 100x harder to land something on them than Mars if you launched it from Earth.
Time table wise with Starship, you have to
a) Get it reliably working for Earth launches - realistically I think we are 2+ years from manned launches bare minimum
b) They still have to create a lander Starship for the moon mission (depends on point 'a') that can land on the moon with no supporting infrastructure AND takeoff
c) Moon lander will give some some working knowledge they can apply towards a Mars mission
d) Assuming Earth + Moon stuff is squared away, you're probably looking at 7ish years before they even attempt a Mars unmanned landing (NASA will also be influencing this a lot, which would potentially slow things down).
e) Assuming the unmanned attempt goes off without a hitch (you'd have to wait around 8-9 months to find out), then you'd want to make supply runs assuming you find an ideal human landing spot. Otherwise that has to be identified.
f) You'd probably need 5-10 supply ship runs minimum - if they launch multiple at sametime or in close proximity, then that will speed things up. But assume at bare minimum at least 1.5-2.5 years to supply a spot. A first mission is going to have to massively oversupply with stuff - this is all unexplored territory and you'd want triple redundancies on anything astronauts would need to survive
g) Assuming all that goes off fine, then maybe within a year of the last supply launch you send humans
I think one of the biggest hurdles is going to be finding the ideal long term habitation area. They can always "rough it" for the 1st mission, but subsequent missions will probably want to locate somewhere that reduces costs (water ice access, caves/lava tubes to allow for larger habitations protected from radiation, proximity with possible scientific sites of interest)
Aaron
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Looks like it's time to dust off the ol' Mars Trilogy for a re-read. I wonder if I can sneak onto one of the rockets and become a cult leader stowaway as in the books... It's getting to the point where I wouldn't mind risking life and limb to get off this fucking clown world planet.
BrutulTM
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Except any Mars colony is going to be completely dependent on shipments from Earth for a good long time after they get up there so pissing off the powers that be on Earth would be unwise. Hell even if it was technically self-sustaining at some point with regard to food and water they are still going to be dependent on Earth for a lot of things for a long time if not forever.
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My point is just that possession is 9/10, etc. He can say he owns it, say he doesn't own it, in his shoes I wouldn't care since there's no practical difference for anything he'd actually want to do. Obviously if he set up human meat farms or something the Earthly powers would intervene. But no one's going to tell him he's violating zoning code.
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Kiroy
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I’m surprised elon doesn’t have multiple 3d printing plays as getting those things to input the rawest material possible into usable items is key to off world colonies. I know spacex and tesla use a lot of the tech but i’d think he’d be balls deep in revolutionizing the industry the way he likes to do.
Sanrith Descartes
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I want them to have boots on the ground by the time NASA's sample return mission lands so they can draw a dickbutt on the robot and take a selfie.
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Forgot who but big thanks for pointing me to this website, looks like we're on again:
SpaceX is targeting Tuesday, September 10 at 3:38 a.m. ET for Falcon 9’s launch of Polaris Dawn to low-Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. There are two additional launch opportunities within the four-hour window at 5:23 a.m. ET and 7:09 a.m. ET. If needed, backup opportunities are available on Wednesday, September 11 at the same times.
SpaceX is targeting Tuesday, September 10 at 3:38 a.m. ET for Falcon 9’s launch of Polaris Dawn to low-Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. There are two additional launch opportunities within the four-hour window at 5:23 a.m. ET and 7:09 a.m. ET. If needed, backup opportunities are available on Wednesday, September 11 at the same times.
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Cybsled
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Treaties are only good so long as the powers that be abide by them. The outer space treaty, in terms of colonization outside Earth, has never really been tested
The south lunar bases proposed by the US and China will be the first real test since you’ll have resources involved (water ice). But these are still national entities
Private industry in space is still supposed to be overseen by nations under the treaty and any hypothetical mars colony by a private company is still too far off to matter at this point.
Sanrith Descartes
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3:38? Fuck that. Better be some clouds pushing it back to a reasonable 7:09Forgot who but big thanks for pointing me to this website, looks like we're on again:
SpaceX is targeting Tuesday, September 10 at 3:38 a.m. ET for Falcon 9’s launch of Polaris Dawn to low-Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. There are two additional launch opportunities within the four-hour window at 5:23 a.m. ET and 7:09 a.m. ET. If needed, backup opportunities are available on Wednesday, September 11 at the same times.
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That's EST, so it's 12:38 for me. Back won't let me sleep most nights anyway so I can do that.
Edit: That early time is also part of why it's called Polaris Dawn - near as I can tell though it's a gimmick.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Oh, duh
I was going forward and not backwards. Im an idiot.
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Big Phoenix
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Some angel investors getting fleeced pretty bad;
Pretty sure a trip to Deimos/Phobos requires a bit less delta v. Would need a radically different lander to operate in such a low g environment though compared to Mars.
Furry
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Yea, it should be notably easier to land on phobos/deimos compared to mars. Definitely less total delta v and their low gravity is forgiving for an approach. Big reason we haven't gone is they just don't seem that interesting, especially in comparison to their host planet. Mars is definitely one of the most interesting planets in solar system in terms of understanding the history of life on earth, especially now that we know for sure there used to be water on the surface, and how persistent life is on earth below the surface. Mars is definitely hiding some secrets that humanity needs to discover if we are ever going to be more than monkeys on some spinning rock.
Big Phoenix
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Definitely just balls of dirt but would still be a good way to test a lot of your systems out with little extra investment. Even Apollo did a practice landing before 11.