The Fall Guy is shaping up to be a flop, though.
Is it a flop though?
Don't get me wrong, it won't make its budget back, which is a bummer given the stars, director, and craft involved. But Covid shutdowns, streaming options, and generational shifts have really hurt box office trends, likely permanently, in a way that movie budgets haven't adjusted to.
With only $35 mil in Week 1, odds are this will max out at $70 mil total in the US... but there were only 34 movies that topped $70 mil last year. Out of those, nearly all were sequels or adaptations of properties with entries in the last 20 years, and even most of those you could argue are part of a brand identity:
Oppenheimer (Nolan track record)
Sound of Freedom (Internet push)
Elemental (Disney animated movies)
Megan
Dungeons & Dragons (Obviously an ongoing media concern, but I can't imagine the made for DVD movies encouraged more viewers to watch this)
That's it for 2023. And I have a hard time imagining a forgotten TV show that hasn't aired in 38 years had any positive influence on The Fall Guy's total box office.
As for 2024, the only releases (so far) that will likely top The Fall Guy are
Dune (Sequel / Villaneuve track record)
Godzilla / Kong
Kung Fu Panda
Ghostbusters
Planet of the Apes
---
Or in conclusion, I'm not sure we should expect any new* IP to top ~$70 million, without some sort of internet trend / meme.
*Again, a TV show that hasn't been on the air in 38 years, with nothing in common but a couple character names and an occupation of one character, may as well be a new property.