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Araxen

Golden Baronet of the Realm
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Good video to watch if you want to know all the scenario's that are in play with Irma. They are explained really well too.
 
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edko

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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4,862
Stay safe bro. Pack your shit and gtfo.

If it looks too close for comfort we're outta here. Stupid old timers talk about sticking out Cat 4's. Fuck that.

As of right now Euro says over Andros Island Saturday, which is 204 miles east.
 
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Oldbased

> Than U
28,424
67,392
6-7 day track in white is favored currently. Could change in a heartbeat though. Looks like every model is predicting landfall someplace currently.

raaa.png
 

cyrusreij

Trakanon Raider
1,722
687
Hmmm... most of those scenarios appear to have Irma jizzing all over my state. Excellent. Please magical trough, protect our heathen lands. Perhaps take the most unlikely path and go wipe out DC.
 
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Oldbased

> Than U
28,424
67,392
That would be bad.
Keeps tracking S/SW more than they intend. It's all over the place but now it shows it dicking around in central Cuba a day before turning north to Tampa. Still bad for your area but it may be weakened. Still 5-6 days in play but these are going to start getting more accurate.
 

edko

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
4,972
4,862
Keeps tracking S/SW more than they intend. It's all over the place but now it shows it dicking around in central Cuba a day before turning north to Tampa. Still bad for your area but it may be weakened. Still 5-6 days in play but these are going to start getting more accurate.

Yeah, if it keeps heading south, best case scenario is landfalls on the DR and Cuba. Those mountains are high enough to rip it up. Won't kill it, but a 1 or a 2 is party time whereas a 3 or a 4 is going to be a whoopin'.

We'll see. I better go buy some beer before the panic sets in.
 
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Oldbased

> Than U
28,424
67,392
Yeah, if it keeps heading south, best case scenario is landfalls on the DR and Cuba. Those mountains are high enough to rip it up. Won't kill it, but a 1 or a 2 is party time whereas a 3 or a 4 is going to be a whoopin'.

We'll see. I better go buy some beer before the panic sets in.
Don't forget to fill and grab bread to. Nothing worse than not being able to make a damn sandwich because everyone panicked and bought all the damn bread.
I like to keep some 10x10 plastic around from Home Depot( $3 ) used as drop cloths in case I need to fill up the tub with water to drink as well.
Stores sell out of shit here for snowstorms that I go drive in without issue. I can't imagine trying to buy shit with a hurricane coming.
 
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Borzak

Bronze Baron of the Realm
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Carry phone numbers on a piece of paper in your wallet or whatever. It's amazing how many people can't call anyone after the 24 hours of cell tower battery is gone. Noticed it in several things since Katrina that people have no way to contact anyone they know when evacuated if their phone is now dead.Lot of help stations are set up and will have a phone, but peopple don't have a list that comes up "mom" or "girlfriend soandso" and can't call to let them know they are alive.

During Katrina my friend that was stuck in the charity hospital there, they had a single land line out. Kept working the entire 7 days he was stuck there. He called me to tell me to take care of his wife and he said nobody else knows the number to call so I called you. I imagine it would be worse now.
 
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Oldbased

> Than U
28,424
67,392
Carry phone numbers on a piece of paper in your wallet or whatever. It's amazing how many people can't call anyone after the 24 hours of cell tower battery is gone. Noticed it in several things since Katrina that people have no way to contact anyone they know when evacuated if their phone is now dead.Lot of help stations are set up and will have a phone, but peopple don't have a list that comes up "mom" or "girlfriend soandso" and can't call to let them know they are alive.

During Katrina my friend that was stuck in the charity hospital there, they had a single land line out. Kept working the entire 7 days he was stuck there. He called me to tell me to take care of his wife and he said nobody else knows the number to call so I called you. I imagine it would be worse now.
Ya for whatever reason I got battery packs for gifts for about 2 years straight. Most of them are 10000+ mAh. Some have flashlights built in, 2 of them will jump a car every 30 seconds for about 20 tries. I've had one I fully charged about 2 years ago and I think it is still 78% on the LED thing last time I checked. Tablet and phone power for days should power ever go out lol. I got like 10 of the damn things, but ya phone numbers are a bitch. Most people don't know the non 911 police number or hospital numbers. I keep a printed list on the side of the fridge that even has the county search and rescue to dive team. Tornados and flooding is our major threat not that we even get that very often.

Me after 2 days looking at NOAA/WU/Vent tracks. I think I figured out the landfall.

DI4eWwlVwAAnwSs.jpg
 
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edko

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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We have printed lists (need to update, been a few months). If we stay I will pull the boat batteries and keep them on trickles until power goes out, from there I can hook up to portable inverters.

The way things keep going though, we are 50/50 out of here by Friday. They close the bridges over 35 sustained and then you are stuck.
 
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Lanx

<Prior Amod>
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We have printed lists (need to update, been a few months). If we stay I will pull the boat batteries and keep them on trickles until power goes out, from there I can hook up to portable inverters.

The way things keep going though, we are 50/50 out of here by Friday. They close the bridges over 35 sustained and then you are stuck.
Holy shit, I see evac is not a new thing for you. Stay safe.
 
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Mrs. Gravy

Quite Saucy
<QUITE SAUCY>
1,696
2,174
If it looks too close for comfort we're outta here. Stupid old timers talk about sticking out Cat 4's. Fuck that.

As of right now Euro says over Andros Island Saturday, which is 204 miles east.
Be careful - you have a draft upcoming!

(Really, please be careful <3 )
 
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Oldbased

> Than U
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67,392
5 days. Not a expert but this doesn't look very good.

faa.png


faaa.png

The scary thing is it is still hitting 150mph on that model at 10m above ground. Not gusts.
Also it shows winds exceeding 35 mph on keys Friday night, a day ahead of arrival on those models.
 
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