Autonomous Systems

Zapatta said:

Go look whats under the shell. $10K in batteries and $3K in motors, $1k in transmission and $2K in brakes and shocks., $1k in tires. Price tag is $100K last I knew. I think what Musk is doing is awesome and look forward to his $40K version, but his luxury sedan is crazy spendy for what actually there.

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What expertise do you have in automotive supply chains and commodization?

Sentagur said:

This is very cool and i would love if it ever became widespread but shitlords being shitlords i can already see them champing at the bits waiting to hijack(hacking/shooting down/ netting) some drones. They all want to be modern day stagecoach robbers.

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I know and it'll be awesome.

Tuco said:

What expertise do you have in automotive supply chains and commodization?

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R&D, engineering, design, testing, tooling, assembly, testing again, all amortized throughout the vehicle line timeframe.

kegkilla said:

is this a serious post? the raw materials used to build your phone probably cost $5. did you get ripped off by paying $500?

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I am not talking about raw material. I am talking cost of parts and assembly. I actually build shit for a living. I am looking at the end product based on cost to manufacture. Am I mad at the margins he can make? Fuck no, more power to him. I am comparing his rolling iPhone to what it costs to build a gas powered vehicle and the price point. A Telsa chassis and drive train is simple as fuck, probably has 100 bolts holding it together. The cost of parts and man hrs to fab one is probably a twentieth of what they have to invest to build a standard auto.

Hell once you can buy Telsa parts at your local Napa / Checkers I am gonna scratch build me a one off that will win car shows.

Zapatta said:

I am not talking about raw material. I am talking cost of parts and assembly. I actually build shit for a living. I am looking at the end product based on cost to manufacture. Am I mad at the margins he can make? Fuck no, more power to him. I am comparing his rolling iPhone to what it costs to build a gas powered vehicle and the price point. A Telsa chassis and drive train is simple as fuck, probably has 100 bolts holding it together. The cost of parts and man hrs to fab one is probably a twentieth of what they have to invest to build a standard auto.

Hell once you can buy Telsa parts at your local Napa / Checkers I am gonna scratch build me a one off that will win car shows.

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Just because you can build a widget for $2, you cannot discount and forget the engineering, R&D and testing and all that other shit that goes along with product development, especially something new from ground up, that got you there bro, whose gonna pay for that?

Tuco said:

What expertise do you have in automotive supply chains and commodization?

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I think you and I need to have a bumper build show down. You go find an old railroad tie, and I'll fire up my tig welder an start laying up some carbon fiber.

mkopec said:

Just because you can build a widget for $2, you cannot discount and forget the engineering, R&D and testing and all that other shit that goes along with product development, especially something new from ground up, that got you there bro, whose gonna pay for that?

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I am not discounting any of that. Engineering and tooling are amortized into every product. And the bigger the market share the cost per gets snaller and smaller.

Zapatta, what do you do for a living?

Zapatta said:

I think you and I need to have a bumper build show down. You go find an old railroad tie, and I'll fire up my tig welder an start laying up some carbon fiber.



I am not discounting any of that. Engineering and tooling are amortized into every product. And the bigger the market share the cost per gets snaller and smaller.

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I'd lose easily.


If your argument is, "The cost of electric vehicles will greatly diminish as a result of commoditization, as the floor is extremely small due to the simplicity of an electric powertrain vs a gasoline one." that's true and I don't think anyone who knows vehicles will disagree. But that's not the argument you made, you said it was outrageous for Tesla to charge 100k for their luxury cars, which is totally false. The only outrage is the length of the waitlist to get them, because they are amazing.

Tuco said:

I'd lose easily.


If your argument is, "The cost of electric vehicles will greatly diminish as a result of commoditization, as the floor is extremely small due to the simplicity of an electric powertrain vs a gasoline one." that's true and I don't think anyone who knows vehicles will disagree. But that's not the argument you made, you said it was outrageous for Tesla to charge 100k for their luxury cars, which is totally false. The only outrage is the length of the waitlist to get them, because they are amazing.

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Pricing is always 'what the market will bear", people will always blow huge bucks on cool shit if they have the disposable cash. Musk has already begun pivoting to a mass appeal affordable product. I made a simple comment about how little money in actual parts went into the end product and people had a fit.

R+D / testing for anything transportation related is more retarded than making pharmaceuticals. For me a private company to weld up automotive street legal vehicle frames would cost me $100K for a DoT license and $10's of K per design in engineering stamps for something simple like motorcycle frame and $100's of Ks for a 4 wheeled vehicle. Not to mention a shit ton of product liability insurance the minute I sold the first one. I have a decent grasp of what shit costs beyond the price per pound for aluminum.

Zapatta said:

Pricing is always 'what the market will bear", people will always blow huge bucks on cool shit if they have the disposable cash. Musk has already begun pivoting to a mass appeal affordable product. I made a simple comment about how little money in actual parts went into the end product and people had a fit.

R+D / testing for anything transportation related is more retarded than making pharmaceuticals. For me a private company to weld up automotive street legal vehicle frames would cost me $100K for a DoT license and $10's of K per design in engineering stamps for something simple like motorcycle frame and $100's of Ks for a 4 wheeled vehicle. Not to mention a shit ton of product liability insurance the minute I sold the first one. I have a decent grasp of what shit costs beyond the price per pound for aluminum.

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Sorry bro you feel that way, See Takata, GM ignition, Ford tires in 2000 and others why R&D and testing is paramount to auto safety.

I do IPs and we have a test center right on site. Which consists of everything from air bag deployment tests with 5x $100K high speed cameras, to 100s of hours in a environment chamber. To a sound proof room, testing the noise output of certain electronic components.

Then we have heat cycle tests, knee impact tests, head impact tests, all which confirm that during a crash some chunk of metal or plastic does not fly off the IP and hit you in the eye or cut your corroded.

We have a material testing department, new addition is a electron microscope $200K.

CAE tests before any of that, confirming structural integrity, rigidity and rattle and squeak tests depending on different Hz. Then we have the engineering department which im a part of, which actually takes the styling department data they want and actually makes it work. Then there is the CAD models which someone has to make, then there is the tooling design, then tooling manufacture, then actualy making the parts, shipping them to an assembly plant in designed and engineered moving palletes which are engineered and nested in such a way that maximizes he amount of parts that chan be shipped on a truck at one time. etc..etc..
And this is only for the Instrument Panel.

mkopec said:

Sorry bro you feel that way, See Takata, GM ignition, Ford tires in 2000 and others why R&D and testing is paramount to auto safety.

I do IPs and we have a test center right on site. Which consists of everything from air bag deployment tests with 5x $100K high speed cameras, to 100s of hours in a environment chamber. To a sound proof room, testing the noise output of certain electronic components.

Then we have heat cycle tests, knee impact tests, head impact tests, all which confirm that during a crash some chunk of metal or plastic does not fly off the IP and hit you in the eye or cut your corroded.

CAE tests before any of that, confirming structural integrity, rigidity and rattle and squeak tests depending on different Hz. Then we have the engineering department which im a part of, which actually takes the styling department data they want and actually makes it work.

And this is only for the Instrument Panel.

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I totally get it, I have mad respect for the engineering and testing that goes into any complex product, especially when it comes to passenger vehicles. I am a little guy and liability scares the fuck out of me for everything I build. We do no engineering in house for that reason. I have the certs to build fuel storage. But I don't because I don't want the liability, I tell customers to buy off the self.

Tuco said:

Zapatta, what do you do for a living?

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I have a little 10 person custom fabrication house. People bring me blueprints, and I tell them how much I would charge to build it.

Zapatta said:

I have a little 10 person custom fabrication house. People bring me blueprints, and I tell them how much I would charge to build it.

Spoiler

Sometimes it's a simple staircase or a holding tank. We have built and installed refinery and power plant parts, cooling towers, cell site enclosures, sewage treatment equipment, commercial fishing vessels, passenger hydrofoils, features in an amusement park and zoos, sustainable aquaculture farms. Retrofits to military vessels and service facilities. But sometimes it's just Christmas decorations hanging in a mall, or props for a movie. We do welding, machining, carpentry, composites, tool / die and coatings.

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Cool.

I hope in ~15 years we see budget-price electric cars for $10k.

Tuco said:

Cool.

I hope in ~15 years we see budget-price electric cars for $10k.

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I'd rather see the Hyperloop and Musk beat Bezos to Mars.

Tuco said:

Cool.

I hope in ~15 years we see budget-price electric cars for $10k.

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How do you figure this as car prices have been exponentially getting more expensive?