Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

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Haus said:
Fair enough , heh. I'll admit I've just been doing this whole crypto thing a little over 3 months now. Still trying to figure some things out which is why I bounce my theories places like here to be picked apart. ;)
Click to expand...
Lol, I just thought it was a funny meme, not actual commentary on your analysis :D
 
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Daezuel

Daezuel

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www.coindesk.com

Uniswap Poll Signals Strong Support for Putting v3 on Ethereum Scaler Arbitrum

The Snapshot poll votes are in.
www.coindesk.com www.coindesk.com
  • Arbitrum went live for developers today, giving them access to the layer 2 scaling solution. Arbitrum offers drastically higher transaction throughput than Ethereum, and gas fees that are up to 270 times lower.
www.coindesk.com

Ethereum Scaler Arbitrum Is Launching Friday With Developer Support From Alchemy

The rollup platform from Offchain Labs is going live this week, with over 150 projects having requested early access.
www.coindesk.com www.coindesk.com

So another optimistic rollup has entered the ring. (but there is no token for this one?)

BTC down around 36k but ETH at a decent 2400 and MATIC at 1.89. Uniswap is also doing well. Why aren't we throwing Uniswap into our hodlings?
 
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James

James

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I have small bag of Uniswap, so I've been following it for a few months now. If you look at the WETH/UNI pool on dextools.io, you'll see that it topped out at 0.02 in late March, and is currently at 0.01. I can't read the tea leaves as well as others, but the chart looks like it's rebounding to me right now so it might be a good idea. Currently there is no use case for the UNI token, so the price is entirely speculative.
 
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Daezuel

Daezuel

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"If you have used Uniswap before 1st of September 2020, you will receive 400 UNI for free" Woah was that real? Damn.

I guess the use case for the token is "governance" but good luck having enough to influence any decisions.
 
James

James

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Governance isn't a use case as it doesn't burn, lock, or incentivize holding the token.
 
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Tmac

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Haus said:
OK, time to show my rudimentary TA and see if you folks can pick me apart and tell me why I'm insane....
View attachment 355961
What I'm seeing in the shorter term time frames (4h shown here) is a descending pattern. Note those blue lines which go back to the high where we started the current correction, and connect the lows to form the bottom of a "bearish flag". Looking at the line connecting the low on the 23 and low on the 29th is my optimistic line of resistance, forming a wedge ending Tuesday afternoon. My working theory is that it's going to narrow down then either break up or down.

If it breaks up, then we watch resistance around $40K. For me to think we're recovering from this months correction I want to see a candle close above that point.
If it breaks down, then I suspect we set a new bottom between $28k-$26k and are in "Bearish price discovery" space until we see a close above that top blue boundary of the flag.

Larger macro concern which makes me think we might be in the beginning of the bear is that we didn't fully recover from the "April correction" before the "May Correction" hit.....

So folks... how crazy am I?
Click to expand...

I like your analysis here. The only thing I'd like to see that you didn't provide is a more zoomed out view. For example when you refer to the "April correction" compared to the "May correction", I'd like to see your charting on it as it compares to what you're discussing above. Then, as an observer, I can take this info and do something with it.

I'm only cynical that the time frame (20ish days) is too short. And therefore I can't apply your theory to my own decisions. I'd atleast like to see your YTD chart alongside this one.
 
Haus

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Tmac said:
I like your analysis here. The only thing I'd like to see that you didn't provide is a more zoomed out view. For example when you refer to the "April correction" compared to the "May correction", I'd like to see your charting on it as it compares to what you're discussing above. Then, as an observer, I can take this info and do something with it.

I'm only cynical that the time frame (20ish days) is too short. And therefore I can't apply your theory to my own decisions. I'd atleast like to see your YTD chart alongside this one.
Click to expand...
1622413250138.png


That's kinda messed up but shows that we were still around 6% (5.9) shy of recovering from the correction that started on around Apr 13th when we dipped further... Although admittedly that was off an ATH, so I don't know how much we want that as a bar to measure against. Yeah, this is more looking at a time frame in hours/days more than weeks/month/years.

But zooming out some really accentuates the shift from "higher highs" to "lower highs" on each push, another technically bearish signal in the short term.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Tmac

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Sanrith Descartes said:
www.investopedia.com

What Is a Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern in Technical Analysis?

A head and shoulders pattern is an indicator that appears on a chart as a set of three peaks or troughs, with the center peak or trough representing the head.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
Click to expand...

It says it's specifically three peaks and troughs. The outside two also have to be close in height.

1622422821471.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-30 at 9.00.49 PM.png


The BTC pattern is four peaks and troughs and the last peak is in between the first two, so is it not head-shoulders then? Or are they just describing it technically and it's open to interpretation?

And because I found this the most relevant:

"How can I use the head and shoulders pattern to make trading decisions?
The most common entry point is a breakout of the neckline, with a stop above (market top) or below (market bottom) the right shoulder. The profit target is the difference between the high and low with the pattern added (market bottom) or subtracted (market top) from the breakout price. The system is not perfect, but it does provide a method of trading the markets based on logical price movements."
 
Last edited:
Arden

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Tmac said:
It says it's specifically three peaks and troughs. The outside two also have to be close in height.

View attachment 355998View attachment 355999

The BTC pattern is four peaks and troughs and the last peak is in between the first two, so is it not head-shoulders then? Or are they just describing it technically and it's open to interpretation?

And because I found this the most relevant:

"How can I use the head and shoulders pattern to make trading decisions?
The most common entry point is a breakout of the neckline, with a stop above (market top) or below (market bottom) the right shoulder. The profit target is the difference between the high and low with the pattern added (market bottom) or subtracted (market top) from the breakout price. The system is not perfect, but it does provide a method of trading the markets based on logical price movements."
Click to expand...

Take a look at this instead and compare it to BTC

Wyckoff.png
 
Arden

Arden

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Tmac said:
That chart didn't come with a legend?
Click to expand...

It's a pattern chart, similar to head and shoulders, reverse head and shoulders, etc. BTC is following the Wyckoff distribution pattern almost to a T.

 
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Tmac

Tmac

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Arden said:
It's a pattern chart, similar to head and shoulders, reverse head and shoulders, etc. BTC is following the Wyckoff distribution pattern almost to a T.

Click to expand...


And we're entering Phase E?
 
Arden

Arden

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That's definitely what it looks like to me when you overlay the Wyckoff on the BTC.

Edit: Watch the video though- his explanation comes with lots of asterixis.
 
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