Captain America: Brave New World (2025)

Movie lost over 100m after marketing, would have lost more if it wasn't for UK kickbacks. Pretty big failure imo

Would it have made more money if they didn't replace Seth Rollins with Gus Fring? WWE is hot right now and they could have done cross promotion.

To be clear, the MCU has existed for so long and at such varied eras of cultural dominance and (extremely noticeable) inflation, not to mention the inevitable Disney+ release cutting into long tails, that just looking at raw numbers may not be the best evaluation.

If you're comparing (non-inflation adjusted) numbers like Franchise: Marvel Cinematic Universe, there's a pretty good relationship between multiplier (overall box office / initial opening) and quality.

Sure, Guardians of the Galaxy 1 only opened with $94M 2014 dollars, but it had a 3.54 multiple. Whereas The Marvels was dead last, both in initial week ($46M in 2023 dollars) and multiplier (1.83).

So while Ant-Man 3 opened with $106M 2023 dollars compared to Ant-Man 2's $75M 2018 dollars, Ant-Man 3's multiple (2.01) and overall take ($214M) were less than Ant-Man 2 (2.88 multiple and $216M), even without adjusting for inflation.

Is Cap Falcon's $88.8M 2025 dollar opening better than recent Covid-era 2021 releases like Black Widow ($80M), Shang-Chi ($75M), and Eternals ($71M)? Yes. Will it even hit the 1.99 multiplier it needs to top Cap America 1, ignoring 14 years of inflation? Up for debate, in my opinion.

Wombat said:

To be clear, the MCU has existed for so long and at such varied eras of cultural dominance and (extremely noticeable) inflation, not to mention the inevitable Disney+ release cutting into long tails, that just looking at raw numbers may not be the best evaluation.

If you're comparing (non-inflation adjusted) numbers like Franchise: Marvel Cinematic Universe, there's a pretty good relationship between multiplier (overall box office / initial opening) and quality.

Sure, Guardians of the Galaxy 1 only opened with $94M 2014 dollars, but it had a 3.54 multiple. Whereas The Marvels was dead last, both in initial week ($46M in 2023 dollars) and multiplier (1.83).

So while Ant-Man 3 opened with $106M 2023 dollars compared to Ant-Man 2's $75M 2018 dollars, Ant-Man 3's multiple (2.01) and overall take ($214M) were less than Ant-Man 2 (2.88 multiple and $216M), even without adjusting for inflation.

Is Cap Falcon's $88.8M 2025 dollar opening better than recent Covid-era 2021 releases like Black Widow ($80M), Shang-Chi ($75M), and Eternals ($71M)? Yes. Will it even hit the 1.99 multiplier it needs to top Cap America 1, ignoring 14 years of inflation? Up for debate, in my opinion.

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When cap1 released 14 years ago. I think I paid maybe 7 or 8 dollars for the ticket at AMC.

Wombat said:

Will it even hit the 1.99 multiplier it needs to top Cap America 1, ignoring 14 years of inflation? Up for debate, in my opinion.

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Even if it matches Cap 1, the audience reaction and word of mouth goes into the next movie.

I didn't watch Cap 1 at a cinema, I saw it a few years after and probably pirated it because I saw Iron Man 1 on TV and Avengers was coming out soon.

I did then see every movie from Avengers to Endgame.

Is this movie something that is bringing in new people or required watching for the big team up movie?

No.

shang-chi listed with $150m budget. it opened on labor day weekend.


think would need to add 5-6% to shang-chi numbers for inflation

To be fair, Shang-Chi actually had relatively strong legs, ending with a 2.98 multiplier, (without adjusting for inflation) beating Ant-Man 2 & 3 and Black Widow, all of whom had pre-existing audiences.

Part of that was undoubtedly not having any action / comic competition until Venom 2 FIVE weeks later - if you'd already seen Free Guy in the three weeks before Shang-Chi launched, there were no other options than Shang-Chi.

And others have said, there's not really much in the way of direct competition until Mickey 17 on 3/7 and Novocaine on 3/14, and neither are really big budget* wide releases - we're really talking The Minecraft Movie on 4/4? Thunderbolts on 5/2?

So while (not adjusting for inflation) Cap Falcon should top Eternals $165M, where it slots in between that and Cap 1 ($177M) / Ant-Man1 ($180) / Thor 1 ($181) / Black Widow ($184) / Thor 2 ($206) probably depends most on word of mouth, and that doesn't seem particularly strong.

Edit: But to Goat's point, that the per-day numbers are worse than Shang-Chi suggests that most of the audience that intended to see it (vs. having no other options at the theater) already saw it.

*Edit 2: Apparently, Mickey 17's budget is a huge point of contention, ranging from $80M to $150M. Given that opening weekend estimates are around $20M in the US, that smells like a financial disaster regardless.

So i have not watched any MCU since… i dont know.

But that clip of … dr strange 2? What did they do, hey wanna cameo as some super that no one cares about because your from AnOthERdeMeNZAsion and get killed in a some horrible disturbing way? Sure dude from the office sign up- and the 2 girls ofc last the longest but still get killed, but the dudes get offed quick and nastily first.

Yeah random sorry

Haven’t watched anything in a long time, the violence has really ratched up since.. i think Guardians 2 and..umm.. winter soldier?

Siliconemelons said:

So i have not watched any MCU since… i dont know.

But that clip of … dr strange 2? What did they do, hey wanna cameo as some super that no one cares about because your from AnOthERdeMeNZAsion and get killed in a some horrible disturbing way? Sure dude from the office sign up- and the 2 girls ofc last the longest but still get killed, but the dudes get offed quick and nastily first.

Yeah random sorry

Haven’t watched anything in a long time, the violence has really ratched up since.. i think Guardians 2 and..umm.. winter soldier?

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Pretty much everything about Ant man, DS 2, and Love and thunder was complete trash. I don't think I made it through any of them.

Christian Bale underused, American Chavez was pretty good, don't remember anything positive about Ant-Man at all.

Chukzombi said:

When cap1 released 14 years ago. I think I paid maybe 7 or 8 dollars for the ticket at AMC.

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Jokes on you, I didn't even pay to see it.
I went to see Rise of the Planet of the Apes with this chick I knew. After Rise, we snuck into Captain America. Good stuff. She later became a legit biologist, then started working for Google in San Francisco. I met up with her again in 2016 when I was driving cross country to ship our vehicles out to Hawaii. She became pure liberal by that point. But she wasn't when she went to College at Penn State. Go figure.