Final Fantasy: Brave Exvius

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Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
43,739
52,293
BTW, it took me 520 energy to awaken Rosa. Why the fuck she requires 13 of the new 5* mats when Kain and Rydia only took 5 a piece, I'll never know.
 

Vorph

Silver Baronet of the Realm
11,492
5,242
It's like Agrias. They are making the cost of 4-5 roughly about the same as 3-5 would have been had the units not been 4* base. They'll probably do it with the 4-5 upgrade for WW Fina too.

I really need to spend the rest of my auracite today. Still have about 8600, but I can't decide whether to get the mats for Cecil (not going 6* until LB is done, at minimum), CoD (should be the next 6* release), or just buy an equal amount of each to be mostly prepared for any future use (like WW Fina). It's a given that the Halloween event will have 6* mats for sale on King Mog anyway. I'm hoping to finish the event really early and go back to TMs though.
 
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Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
43,739
52,293
It's like Agrias. They are making the cost of 4-5 roughly about the same as 3-5 would have been had the units not been 4* base. They'll probably do it with the 4-5 upgrade for WW Fina too.

I really need to spend the rest of my auracite today. Still have about 8600, but I can't decide whether to get the mats for Cecil (not going 6* until LB is done, at minimum), CoD (should be the next 6* release), or just buy an equal amount of each to be mostly prepared for any future use (like WW Fina). It's a given that the Halloween event will have 6* mats for sale on King Mog anyway. I'm hoping to finish the event really early and go back to TMs though.

Yeah Gaffgarion is just as bad as Agrias. I was going to awaken one of mine to 5* just for the lulz, but I'm damn sure not spending 15 sacred crystals for lulz.
 

Angelwatch

Trakanon Raider
3,053
133
You've convinced me to hold out for Refia. Unless the rates for Fina are better than normal it's going to be better for me to wait. I'm only at 3,500 Lapis after chasing Cecil and totally out of tickets. This will give me a chance to save up and then go hard for her when released. But chasing a 4 star base always worries me a bit.
 

Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
43,739
52,293
Ok I cannot get the math right.

How do I calculate summon probability? For example, if I do 11 pulls with a 12% chance for the unit I want, what are the odds that I will get at least 1?
 

ZyyzYzzy

RIP USA
<Banned>
25,295
48,789
Ok I cannot get the math right.

How do I calculate summon probability? For example, if I do 11 pulls with a 12% chance for the unit I want, what are the odds that I will get at least 1?
Would be:

(11!/1!(11!-1!))*((0.12^1)(0.88^10))

If i remeber binomials correctly
 

Vorph

Silver Baronet of the Realm
11,492
5,242
It's just 1-((1-0.12)^11) = 75.5%. You calculate the probably of not getting it in 11 pulls and invert the %.
 

ZyyzYzzy

RIP USA
<Banned>
25,295
48,789
It's just 1-((1-0.12)^11) = 75.5%. You calculate the probably of not getting it in 11 pulls and invert the %.
Ya no. You would want to use the binomial distribution to calculate the probability as I stated above, which would give a 36.7% chance.

Each of the events (summons) are independent of one another. Each result can be defined as a success (got the unit he wants) or failure and the probability of the success is the same for each event (12%)

Nm Vorph Vorph is right. I did p = 1 not p>1. Been so long since i took stats or did any maths.
 
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Vorph

Silver Baronet of the Realm
11,492
5,242
It's been a while but it looks to me like you only did P(1). He said at least 1, not exactly 1. What I calculated was 1-P(0).


Edit: Oops, posted before I saw the edit.
 

Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
43,739
52,293
yeah i was doing p = 1 also. thanks!

*edit*

So if I have this right, between the 19 possible summons tomorrow (welfare pull, 11 pull from adamantite chest, 7 tickets from adamantite chest if no Cecil in the 11 pull) and the 7 I've already done (6 welfare + 1 ticket) there's still a 4.5% chance that I won't get Cecil.

Time for a crit fumble.
 
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Sinzar

Trakanon Raider
3,149
269
Datamined halloween units look pretty terribad. Guess I get to stockpile more for a real banner later. Not even going to be doing half priced daily pulls.
 

Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
43,739
52,293
Those units are impressively terrible. Hopefully the drastic dropoff in pulls for 2 weeks straight is a suitable slap in the face for them releasing such trash.

*edit*

What are the odds of the halloween units being buffed later?
 
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Angelwatch

Trakanon Raider
3,053
133
Possible but unlikely. Since they won't be available again they are mostly designed as neat collectors items.

Going in the other direction though, in a Gacha game like this, nerfs are pretty much unheard of. If they mess up and release something ridiculously overpowered it won't get nerfed.

Like I said, I'm holding off. This is a great chance to restock some Lapis and tickets and then blow it all trying for Refia.
 

Vorph

Silver Baronet of the Realm
11,492
5,242
Funny, I posted to reddit yesterday "It would be pretty hard for her not to be [the best GL healer by far], but Gumi could do something really stupid like not give her Curaja." Goddamnit, I didn't want to be right that time.

Oh well, at least it simplifies everything. Pull Lid with dailies since she'll probably have close to 20% rate in this banner, then full stop.
 

Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
43,739
52,293
Oh well, at least it simplifies everything. Pull Lid with dailies since she'll probably have close to 20% rate in this banner, then full stop.

Why? She certainly isn't bad, but she doesn't seem like anything special either.
 

Vorph

Silver Baronet of the Realm
11,492
5,242
Eh, she's limited with solid abilities and it should be really easy to get her in the first couple days. If not, I'll just give up.

Also, amuses me.

There is one downside though: a hell of a lot of things to spend candy corn on, and her ATK materia are 23k each.
 

Ao-

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
<WoW Guild Officer>
7,879
507
So how did Alim/Gumi manage to fuck up these units? In other games they've straight up buffed units to bring them to "Great" or even overpowered status (and done it before they were released).
 

Sinzar

Trakanon Raider
3,149
269
Wondering same thing. I was expecting Zeruiah levels of overpower from our first global exclusives. Instead, they go the completely opposite direction and make them trash tier.

I used a few tickets for a final chance at Dark Cecil, but no such luck. Did get Rosa, but I doubt I ever level her at this point since she's already inferior to Lenna and Garnet.