Greece - A New Hope

khorum · Jul 2, 2015

Ossoi_sl said:
what a complete load of nonsense.

Let me guess, you're in favour of more austerity, more cuts, more reduction in GDP and more bailout money going straight to banks in Germany/France

Newsflash:Greek crisis: NSA phone tap of Angela Merkel reveals she knew Greeces debt was unsustainable - Vox

There is no growth or recovery model for Greece that isn't based on substantial write-downs or default. That's not my opinion; everyone from the the giddy eurosceptics awash in delicious schadenfreude to the hysterical marxists on the Guardian editorial junta agree with that. My opinion is that for substantial write-downs to work long-term it would be effectively indistinguishable from default. Not only because of the scale of Greek debt, which dwarfs the Argentinian default as a proportion of GDP, but also because of systemic dysfunctions within the Greek state.

But it IS also a fact that the leftist press, including Vox (the original purveyors of voxsplaining) is complicit in pushing the Greek electorate into this state. Throughout the entirety of this recent austerity debate you have had Le Monde and the Irish Times and the Guardian calling for and essentially agitating for a marxist intervention in their quixotic fight against the prosperous north. I've linkedAlex Tsipras' own manifestopublished in Le Monde where he framed the Greek debacle as"the very epicenter of conflict between two diametrically opposing strategies concerning the future of European unification".

Just today, the Guardian showed their colors in a primal scream about theutter failure of their neo-marxist experimentto foil the Troika. But surprise, their disappointment barely mentions the fact that the destruction of the Greek sovereign funds will render millions of pensioners bankrupt, instead they lament the diminished credibility of their beloved eurocommunist project:

The Guardian_sl said:
If it all ends on Monday, with the Greeks voting for austerity in order to keep the euro, the first far-left party to hold office in modern Europe will be judged by its critics a failure.

But win or lose, Syriza in office has been a work in progress, impossible to read for people ignorant of Greece, let alone people who don't know there are subcategories to moderate Marxism.

But Syriza is different. Syriza is a coalition whose colours are red for socialism, green for ecology and purple for feminism. But it is primarily red. It was born out of Eurocommunism - when the communist parties of the west declared loyalty to parliamentary democracy instead of Moscow. Its most influential activists are aged 50 and above: people who have read all three volumes of Karl Marx's Capital, plus the Grundrisse, Theories of Surplus Value and Friedrich Engels' Anti-D?hring. A lot of them are MPs now, or special advisers: you'll find them in greying huddles in their old haunts - the radical bars and cafes of Exarchia and Plaka.

As I've mentioned you won't see the usual anti-austerity mouth-frothers write anything about their failure to oppose austerity in Spain or Ireland or Portugal or Italy... in fact, you don't hear much about the consquences of the PREVIOUS Greek governments effort to recover under austerity until their nonstop bullshit pushed Syriza into office. Why? Oh right:

I guess it was asking too much to expect Europe's leftist press to just translate the German news about how Spain and Ireland have gone from terminal patients to being among of the fastest growing economies in the union thanks to the austerity poliicies, but the Guardian actively campaigned for Syriza's election despite knowing that Greece's feeble recovery would be dramatically reversed by a party that ran on a platform of "We Won't Pay Taxes".

Socialist publications like the Guardian haven't been ambiguous about their frustrated ambitions to reshape EU by using the Greek debacle, so why are you? The only difference is that nowadays eurosceptics and even right-wing voices are smelling blood and are adding fuel to the fire because they know a disgraced Troika would discredit the European Union. You can basically see ALL THIS in campaign posters for the UK's referendum on EU membership that Cameron promised for next year.

Ossoi · Jul 2, 2015

I really can't take you seriously when every other line is like this

That's not my opinion; everyone from the the giddy eurosceptics awash in delicious schadenfreude to the hysterical marxists on the Guardian editorial junta agree with that

Anyway, Paul Mason has basically said we're witnessing the overthrow of Syriza in action.

Ossoi · Jul 2, 2015

And yes, austerity has done brilliantly in Spain, 50% youth unemployment, 25% unemployment in general population.

It's not even hard to discredit the pro austerity argument, you seem so pro austerity that you're either German or an idiot.

Maybe the reason the eu is trying so hard to topple Syriza is because they want to send a warning to the Spanish equivalent Podemos.

Now why would they need to do that if Spain is such a beacon of austerity related success?

Dumar_sl · Jul 2, 2015

Chomsky is on point, especially with regards to Spain.

Noam Chomsky: Austerity Is Just Class War

khorum · Jul 2, 2015

Well it's true. You linked a prominent tory eurosceptic saying the same thing. Before this we've seen sitting eurosceptic MEP's like Daniel Hannan pointing out irreconcilable flaws in the EMU with Greece as his specific example for close to a decade. It's no secret that the eurosceptics appreciate the irony more than the left since the EU itself was a socialist project to begin with.

Syriza will declare victory either way. Their aging hardline party leadership have been plotting this in darkened cafes since the 80's; denying the reality of a capitalist universe is their entire reason to exist. They didn't even need to hold a referendum to claim that the Greek people had given them a 'mandate' that the Troika had to 'respect' (fucking lol), they've been saying THAT since February. Like I said earlier in the thread they'll either default and face a devaluation and hyperinflation, or accept a bitter bailout package that imposes harsh deductions on their generous entitlement regime, raise taxes on what limited industry they have, and force real systemic reforms on taxation and finance.

In either scenario the Greeks are in for a brutal decade. But what the leftist press won't dwell on is that the folks who will suffer the most aren't the hypersexed, unemployed hipster legions ofOccupy-Syntagmawho helped them put Syriza in power, it'll be the working families and pensioners whosesavingsand retirement funds will be decimated by devaluation. Those young anarcho-socialists who whined and rioted and burned Athens for weeks are alreadyleaving their country to find jobs in places like (of course) Germany, but not before staging a few more demonstrations to convince the people that are left behind to support Syriza and vote against the bailout.

General Antony · Jul 2, 2015

So? That's the very cohort of people responsible for their country's problems. Trying to blame this on people under 30 while people sit on pensions at 55 spending money they have no intention of ever paying back.

Let them burn.

Lejina · Jul 2, 2015

What I find pretty amazing is the combinaison of high expectation of government services and the absolute disdain of taxes. Obviously nobody likes taxes but people usually realize the money has to come from somewhere and if you don't pay much in taxes you're pretty much on your own to support yourself and your family so to speak. The greeks seem completely oblivious to this reality.

Ossoi · Jul 3, 2015

In either scenario the Greeks are in for a brutal decade. But what the leftist press won't dwell on is that the folks who will suffer the most aren't the hypersexed, unemployed hipster legions of Occupy-Syntagma who helped them put Syriza in power, it'll be the working families and pensioners whose savings and retirement funds will be decimated by devaluation

I'm pretty sure anyone with half a brain cell can see that it's the poorest of society who lose the most when austerity measures cut the services they rely on

Ossoi · Jul 3, 2015

Greece crisis: a failure of economics in the face of politics | Paul Mason | Paul Mason

Greece crisis: a failure of economics in the face of politics

The IMF's report yesterday got swamped amid the gloom, despondency and fractiousness of the Greek crisis.

It said, in short, Greece's debt has become unsustainable. Greece needs an extra ?50bn now, a twenty-year holiday from its debt repayments and a substantial write off.

It's not quite a mea culpa, because the IMF says if Greece had followed the course dictated by the Troika the debt would have been sustainable.

But it comes close. Once you add in politics to the economics, the IMF's document reads like an early autopsy on the policy of austerity first, debt relief maybe. And it contains a horrible sting for any government - right wing, technocratic or national - that succeeds Syriza if it loses the referendum on Sunday.
'Whatever it takes'

Let's first dissect the IMF's assertion that the old austerity plan was working.

The first precondition was that long-term interest rates fell substantially below those expected in the original agreement. This was the result of global deflationary pressures and a co-ordinated policy of quantitative easing, and implicit state guarantees for south European debt after Mario Draghi's 2012 "whatever it takes" speech.

Another way of putting this is: the Troika's 2010 and 2011 austerity programmes for Greece are only sustainable because the ECB in 2012 exposed the governments of the entire Eurozone to the debt of the Eurozone.

But here's the critical paragraph. To go on using 15 per cent of its GDP to pay down its ?320bn debt until 2045 "would require primary surpluses of 4+ per cent of GDP per year and decisive and full implementation of structural reforms that delivers steady state growth of 2 per cent per year (with the best productivity growth in the euro area) and privatization".

This is IMF speak for "it's impossible" - for all the reasons the report then points out.

4 per cent surpluses are politically undeliverable by a democratic government in Greece. The conservative-led coalition fell because it could not deliver them. Nor could it deliver the "structural reforms" everybody wants - an end to bureaucracy, corruption and tax evasion - because the existing political establishment is mired in these problems.
Nail in the coffin

As to the solution, the IMF suggests doubling the time Greece gets to pay off it remaining debts, and a ?36bn loan, with almost no conditions, to enable it to pay off any debts becoming due before 2018 (which is what the Greeks publicly asked for, presumably once they knew this report was coming).

The IMF's call then for a write-off of the Greek debt equivalent of 30 per cent of GDP is the final intellectual nail in the coffin of the programme it imposed in 2010 and 2011.

The IMF's report is not just a piece of analysis. It makes it virtually certain that the IMF will not sign up to any solution for Greece - or indeed the rest of the Euro periphery - that excludes a debt write-off.

But a debt write-off is exactly what the EU governments cannot deliver. As I've said here before: it's not a question of political willpower but of democracy. The Eurozone now includes the perennially right-wing states of Estonia, Finland and Lithuania who will block with Germany; and a German people whose willingness to take the downside of the Euro deal along with the upside seems to be over.

Suppose now Syriza falls on Monday. A government of all the other parties takes over and, waving this IMF report, arrives in Brussels asking for ?50bn debt relief, a doubling of repayment times and a ?36bn short term loan to see it through to 2018.

That is a substantial hit for European taxpayers. But the same Greek government would also arrive with a bill for rescuing the banking sector - which will collapse as soon as it is reopened without a massive injection of assistance from the European Central Bank, again exposing taxpayers' money by proxy to the Greek rescue.

After EU parliament President Martin Schulz effectively called for regime change yesterday, conspiracy theorists here are seeing the above as a likely scenario. Get rid of Syriza and we will hand over the cash - effectively improvising a fiscal union on the sly to prevent Greece collapsing into chaos.
Failed state?

But here's where you begin to see the logic of the behaviour of Tsipras and Varoufakis. If the EU wants to avoid Greece collapsing into chaos, and defaulting on its ?320bn debt in whole or in part, it has to do this for any government that turns up in Brussels on Monday.

It has to do so for material and moral reasons. Materially, a Greek collapse now comes on top of a Chinese stock market crash, Puerto Rico's $72bn default and warning signs of a downturn in the USA. If Greece is "let go" it could trigger the final market rout the pessimists have expected ever since the 2008 crash.

Morally, leave aside all the national stereotyping and bitterness, if the EU allows one of its member states to become a failed state - and I am not exaggerating when I say that is possible - every small country in the union would sensibly begin behaving as if it were the next Greece.

Geopolitically, the failure to save Greece - I stress again because of a failure of will by electorates as much as their politicians - would signal to America that Europe is a busted concept and, more ominously, it would create the cracked pavement onto which Vladimir Putin could scatter seeds of what he wants to grow there.

The IMF's document is in the dry, clinical style of all analyst reports. Yet from here, amid the throbbing heat, the graffiti and the return of teargas, it shows the failure of economics in the face of politics.

The austerity programmes of 2010 and 2011 may have worked in a Greece made up of sans-serif numbers in a table. But they could not and did not work in a Greece made up of people: crony politicians, tax evading businessmen and a radical left party whose members are, even now, urging it to bring the whole Euro system crashing down.

- See more at:Greece crisis: a failure of economics in the face of politics | Paul Mason | Paul Mason

ohkcrlho · Jul 3, 2015

Occupy Syntagma....ahah holy shit.
Greeks, wayyyyy before there was an occupy movement, were already protesting. Not only hipsters, but everyone, including dogs (RIP Loukanikos) and grannies

And that banner is from KKE, Greek Communist Party, back in 2010.

One thing you americans must understand about politics in some countries. Greece, Portugal and Spain, since they are well-established democracies (in 1973, 1974 and 1975 respectively), have been governed by 2 parties (sometimes a third one appears to make coalitions): "socialists" and "social-democrats". You even can make a comparison with Democrats and Republicans but , in a way, is kinda different.
Both are catch-all parties; both already forgot their roots and now go with the flow of the people; both when they were (are) in power, helped friends (in and out) of the government, at the expenses of the State; both promise tons of shit and you know what happens in the end; both make deals between them so the status quo continue; both always say they need absolute majority so they can govern way better (yeah....like a dictatorship. fuck the others!); both warn the people to be careful with other (radical or not) parties; both know and even say they are the only ones that can be government.
Same shit, different smell..no more, no less.

REAL center-oriented parties don't exist, they always chose a side way before elections.

And you still can't figure it out why Syriza won, uh? You know history right? You remember a country, back in the late 1920's, in ruins, completely humiliated and then everyone listened to a crazy dude with a tiny moustache?....yeah, that is what happens when a country is in crisis, the extremes appear and gain admiration.

Agraza · Jul 3, 2015

Lejina_sl said:
What I find pretty amazing is the combinaison of high expectation of government services and the absolute disdain of taxes. Obviously nobody likes taxes but people usually realize the money has to come from somewhere and if you don't pay much in taxes you're pretty much on your own to support yourself and your family so to speak. The greeks seem completely oblivious to this reality.

They're running a budget surplus now if you discount the loans, loans whose interest was never designed for a recovery. They have made huge cuts. If their debt is restructured they can move forward without further cuts. They've already cut more than they should have, as too much will exacerbate the spending reduction. Part of the US's recovery problem was too much cutting as it put spending into a losing spiral as earning dropped continuously.

The current situation bears some similarity to the criticism of the USPS, which was recently forced to fund its pension 75 years into the future as a way of claiming that they're in the red. They're doing just fine, and they're making progress funding that 75 year forward pension, but still you have people with an incomplete perception of the political will to see the USPS fail who don't realize it's a farce.

Germany is being a little bitch. They could take cues from theirown history of debt.

Wikipedia_sl said:
An important term of the agreement was that repayments were only due while West Germany ran a trade surplus, and that repayments were limited to 3% of export earnings. This gave Germany?s creditors a powerful incentive to import German goods, assisting reconstruction.

Kaige · Jul 3, 2015

Honeymoon is over for Greek couple who went penniless in NYC

NEW YORK (AP) - Newlyweds Valasia Limnioti and Konstantinos Patronis' long-planned "dream trip" to the U.S. ended in New York City, where their three-week honeymoon quickly turned into a nightmare: Their Greek-issued credit and debit cards were suddenly declined and they were left penniless.

"We were hungry, and I cried for two days," Limnioti said. "I felt homeless in New York." The couple skipped a few meals before spending their last dollars on dinner at McDonald's. Strangers from two Greek Orthodox churches in the city's Queens borough came to the rescue, giving them survival cash until their flight home to Greece on Friday.

The couple's U.S. adventure started after their June 6 wedding in Volos, Greece, a port city several hours north of Athens. Their coast-to-coast U.S. trip that took in Los Angeles and a Caribbean cruise "was the dream trip of our lives," Limnioti said.

They had saved for a whole year to pre-pay for flights and hotels, with enough cash left for both necessities and pleasures. Two Greek banks issued them cards before the trip - a Visa credit card and a debit card. In Greece, they generally pay in cash, which is preferred by businesses, but they were told to have cards for the U.S.

"Everything was all right - then 'boom!' in New York," Limnioti said. Their midtown Manhattan hotel asked them to pay a $45 surcharge. That's when their cards bounced. They paid with their dwindling funds.

Within days, the couple ran out of cash and "we couldn't withdraw any money - zero," Limnioti said. On Tuesday, in despair, they reached out to the New York-based Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America, which contacted the churches in Queens' Astoria neighborhood.

The honeymooners were offered about $350 from the St. Demetrios Greek Orthodox church and another nearby one, St. Irene Chrysovalantou. "I said to them, 'Don't worry, that's why we're here,'" said the Rev. Vasilios Louros of St. Demetrios. "This is the church of Christ and we always help people."

The money was withdrawn from the church's bank account, "and that was it," he said. In addition, an undisclosed amount came from a New York-based Greek journalist who hails from Volos. The couple insisted they'd pay back the money but were told it was a gift, said Limnioti, speaking on her cellphone Wednesday from the American Museum of Natural History.

She said relatives in Greece told them other Greeks abroad also were left penniless, including some patients in U.S. hospitals who cannot pay for medical care. She said she's speaking out "because we Greeks are a proud people, and I want the world to know that we are not in this situation because we're lazy or did something wrong."

Their financial woes won't be over once they get home. With banks closed, Greece faces a deep financial crisis. Greeks will vote Sunday in a referendum on whether to back more spending cuts, more tax increases and more negotiations with European creditors. A rejection of such draconian measures could trigger a Greek exit from the Eurozone.

Limnioti, 36, is unemployed after the small business for which she worked failed. Her 39-year-old husband still has his job as a helicopter engineer for the Greek military. But in every sense, the couple's honeymoon is over, with a financial sword of Damocles looming over their country.

"There are only three things saving us now: our families, our friends and our God," Limnioti said.

iannis · Jul 3, 2015

Gavinmad_sl said:
Really? the mexicans I lived next door to were fucking disgusting slobs who had multiple tents in the back yard year round and moved in with farm animals that I had to call animal control to get rid of.

You called the cops on their chickens and pigs?

Man.

I've lived next to messicans. That's like one of the perks. Fresh eggs for a buck.

The only annoying thing about messicans is that they like to party and they have huge groups of friends/family. Friday night there will be this mexican music playing and like 20 dudes in the back yard. They're not super-loud and they shut it down at a reasonable time. It's not like they're shootin guns or anything. They're just out there gettin drunk and visting.

Gavinmad · Jul 3, 2015

They had a goddamn rooster man. You know how loud those things are? I'll give you a hint. REALLY FUCKING LOUD.

khorum · Jul 3, 2015

Ossoi_sl said:
And yes, austerity has done brilliantly in Spain, 50% youth unemployment, 25% unemployment in general population.

It's not even hard to discredit the pro austerity argument, you seem so pro austerity that you're either German or an idiot.

Maybe the reason the eu is trying so hard to topple Syriza is because they want to send a warning to the Spanish equivalent Podemos.

Now why would they need to do that if Spain is such a beacon of austerity related success?

Worse: I'm German-American. My family got kicked out of Prussia in the 1850's for being TOO German. We've been in Chicago ever since where we continue the proud German tradition of picking on hapless Greeks. I dunno why that is. I fucking LOVE moussaka. I put tzatziki sauce on my fries, it's like a cold Greek poutine and it goes well with warsteiner.

Maybe its that Greek passion that pushes feels over facts so much. If you just FELT hard enough you could overlook the fact that even the leftist Guardian has had to admit that the Spanish economy has been growing 'slowly'. Any by slowly they mean it's one of the fastest growing economies in the EU. You can watch the slow trainwreck of the Guardian claiming that it was oil prices leading to Spain's THIRD consecutive quarter of growth back inOctoberthen eventually begrudging the growth of exports, falling unit labour costs and growing consumer confidence inMarchfor the FOURTH consecutive quarter of growth.

While unemployment remains high, shedding those lost low-productivity jobs have made Spain much more competitive in the export market, which is where the 1 million new job growth has been. Much of the 3 million jobs lost in the recession were related to collapsed housing market, and those will be slow coming back (if ever). And Schauble is right to warn the Spanish of the potential rise of PODEMOS. TheSpanish recovery will take another 18-24months before reaching its pre-housing bubble crash heights because it is a much much larger economy than the other PIIGS---it's one of the largest economies in the EU---but if PODEMOS had been elected and influenced a Syriza-style rejection of austerity, it WILL reverse that course.

Dumar_sl · Jul 3, 2015

A German living in one of the bastions of liberal economic thought. It all makes sense now. Free markets and austerity work! Yes!

Cad · Jul 3, 2015

You're not even trying anymore Dumar.

Dumar_sl · Jul 3, 2015

Cad_sl said:
You're not even trying anymore Dumar.

True, but it does make sense now!

khorum · Jul 3, 2015

Don't get too excited, that's practically a statistical certainty. Ancestry.com said Germans were the largest ethnic group in Chicago since the City's founding. Never really looked into it, but I've no reason to doubt it. Judging by the north side and Lincoln Square I wouldn't be surprised if it's still true.

Greece - A New Hope

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