Green Monster Games - Curt Schilling

Eventually, a sizable portion of the population will get tired of a game, leaving the more core market as a remainder. Many of the games that have avoided this are usually online games, most of which allowed a person to create a mod that revitalized the original game (Half-Life/Counter-Strike or WC3/DOTA being very notable examples).

Eventually a notable segment of WoW will get "bored" and leave. It"s an undeniable truth. It will happen. Eventually people will want something new.

Here"s my view:

SC2 re-energizes the property in the US/Euro markets. Hopefully it likewise adds a little spark to the SC pro-gaming leagues in South Korea, which while still popular still aren"t near their peak of 3-5 years ago.

D3 gets released (rumors are saying it will be announced in Paris at the WWI. Of special note is that Diablo is crazy popular in the land of cheese-eaters!).

X of Starcraft is announced, revealed to have been in development since SC2 and WOTLK were released. It is a delicious mix of Tabula Rasa and Planetside.

The staff of Blizzard boards the white boats that will take them across the ocean to an island built of pure money, where android elves will serve their every whim.

Twobit Whore said:

I don"t see how. Fantasy is proven. People are familiar with it. It"s a lot easier to get people to come to a game that"s "like WoW kinda but a whole lot better" than it is to get them to go to a game that isn"t like anything they can understand. Obviously vets and hardcore players won"t be affected by this but I think we all can agree that the vast majority of the mainstream market doesn"t fall into this category.

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Its simple. The LotR IP could NOT bring massive numbers into the genre. And we"re talking about one of the most popular IP"s of all time there. "Like WoW kinda but a whole lot better" will read as "not much more than more of the same" to a fairly good portion of the current gamespace. At worst, Blizzard may slip a bit with its grip on the market, but you can be absolutely certain they"ll respond with a spectacle beyond belief to counter it.

How long do you really think a new, completely unheard of "fantasy" IP will be able to hold out against the constant assault Blizzard will throw at it to secure thier market share? Its a no-brainer man. Its time to explore into other avenues besides fantasy. Bring in more fresh blood with something enticing and "new". Fantasy just isn"t going to cut it anymore. But do it before Blizzard does. Or you may as well not even bother.

LotRo is a horrible example, because while it is a good IP, the gameplay simply sucked.

Gameplay has to come first, and my previous statements about Fantasy being the way to go were made with the assumption that 38 Studious realizes this fact. If they don"t have a good game first, this whole argument about what type of IP to go with is pointless to begin with.

Grave said:

LotRo is a horrible example, because while it is a good IP, the gameplay simply sucked.

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Again, you completely missed the point. Warcraft = HUGE IP. LotR = HUGE IP. LotRO could not compete with what WoW had accomplished. On ANY level other than where EVERY other game competes. And your "opinion" that LotRO"s gameplay "sucks", counts for nothing in the scope of a "yet to be developed" IP. Again, i"m not saying that a new IP, fantasy or other wise, cannot be successful in the overall market. I"m just extremely reserved that ANY new "fantasy" IP can compete on the same level as Blizzard for market share with "yet another fantasy game". Thats the intent of 38 Studios, is it not?

Rayne said:

Again, you completely missed the point. Warcraft = HUGE IP. LotR = HUGE IP. LotRO could not compete with what WoW had accomplished. On ANY level other than where EVERY other game competes.

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I"m not missing your point. I completely understand what you"re saying. The point I was trying to make is, had LotRo been as fun as WoW, offered as much as WoW, it WOULD have competed. End of story. They started down the path in the beginning to mostly cater to extreme LotR fans when they decided not to have common magic users and things like that. They dug themselves into that hole. The game was just too shallow, it played sluggishly, and offered little to nothing for the hardcore gamer. These are flaws that cannot be overlooked. A game looking to compete with WoW from the earliest stages of development, will, hopefully, not make these mistakes. From what I"ve heard Curt say in interviews, he seems to know what he needs to do.

Rayne said:

Again, i"m not saying that a new IP, fantasy or other wise, cannot be successful in the overall market. I"m just extremely reserved that ANY new "fantasy" IP can compete on the same level as Blizzard for market share with "yet another fantasy game". Thats the intent of 38 Studios, is it not?

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The reasons why fantasy can compete have been stated numerous times in this thread. It"s not about the genre of the IP, but about the quality of the game. Assuming solid quality, on par with WoW, a fantasy game is the most likely to succeed based on simple facts that we have seen in the past.

I would venture to say LoTR is a huge IP, but not a huge gaming IP. There is a difference. Just because everyone in the world knows what an IP is, the industry in what it is known for, usually gets the best reception.

Example. Blizzard is a huge " triple A gaming development IP" company. Legions of fans from Warcraft, Vikings, SC, Diablo, etc.

Now they have crossed over into comics, toys, film, etc. Name me a #1 in those industries. (I could be wrong but most likely not.) Will it ever beat Spiderman in comics, Titanic in film, Timberlake in music? Fans aren"t that stupid.

That is why Lotro did not do huge numbers (but still turning a profit I"d guess, because that"s the bottom line, not our dreams and wishes). It is an "ok gaming IP" from an "ok developer".

I would say you are missing the point Rayne.

LOTR had an arguably LARGER IP to draw from and it did worse. Why?? It was a sucky game.

WOW got a grand kickstart with its IP but that doesn"t retain or create anything other than initial purchase from fans. SWG got a grand kickstart....LOTR got a grand kickstart. The IP may have started WOW nicely but if the game had not been fun or sucked then it would have looked exactly like SWG after a few months.

The reason for WOW"s success isn"t its IP or Bnet or any other sort of retardation that so many espouse. It is because its a good game. Period.

Grave said:

I"m not missing your point. I completely understand what you"re saying. The point I was trying to make is, had LotRo been as fun as WoW, offered as much as WoW, it WOULD have competed. End of story. They started down the path in the beginning to mostly cater to extreme LotR fans when they decided not to have common magic users and things like that. They dug themselves into that hole. The game was just too shallow, it played sluggishly, and offered little to nothing for the hardcore gamer. These are flaws that cannot be overlooked. A game looking to compete with WoW from the earliest stages of development, will, hopefully, not make these mistakes. From what I"ve heard Curt say in interviews, he seems to know what he needs to do.

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You"re predicating these claims on presumed knowledge of what the gameplay of EITHER was going to be like. Knowledge you could NOT have possibly had until you played both. Because it presumes that LotR fans decided NOT to play it because of the factors you mentioned. Do you really believe that whats likely much more than 5 million potential fans, just suddenly decided NOT to play LotRO for various reasons? Or even TRY it for that matter?

The reasons why fantasy can compete have been stated numerous times in this thread. It"s not about the genre of the IP, but about the quality of the game. Assuming solid quality, on par with WoW, a fantasy game is the most likely to succeed based on simple facts that we have seen in the past.

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And for equally numerous legitemate reasons, its NO more secure than anything else. You really buy that "its like WoW so everyone will quit WoW now" shit? Quality won"t matter when its only more of the same done a little different, and with a slightly varied pitch. It will NOT bring new blood into the market. If it intends to compete directly with WoW, it will NEED to bring in a built-in following of its own.

And thats before even considering what WoW will very likely accomplish from this point forward. The bar is being raised every time they release anything new. You"re looking at this as if Blizzard will be doing nothing in the time it will take for a new IP to establish itself, secure a sizable fanbase, and finally release a finished product. Sorry man. You"re only fooling yourself.

Gaereth said:

The reason for WOW"s success isn"t its IP or Bnet or any other sort of retardation that so many espouse. It is because its a good game. Period.

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Well, if you want to believe that the majority of WoW"s initial playerbase were seasoned mmo vets, I guess thats your prerogative.

Everyone knows why WoW is doing well. It"s the best game of the genre currently on the market with the largest amount of mass market appeal. You have inventive landscapes, color characters, plenty of casual and hardcore style progression and it caters to several different time availabilities. That"s how you do something "right" as the kids are fond of hating to say. The IP itself didn"t sell all it"s boxes or keep it"s 10m or whatever the current number is these days of worldwide subscribers. Nobody is going to argue that it didn"t help immensely early on, but word of mouth and the constant commercialization and viral popularity of it"s media has helped it spread to people who didn"t even know other games like it ever existed.

I"ve never once heard someone mention LotRO in passing during casual conversation ever, and I hang out with a fair amount of computer nerds. I do however hear WoW anecdotes or catchphrases (fucking leeroy jenkins. Seriously, why?) a minimum of 5 times a day between work and school, usually leaning towards the 20-30. And that"s from random people in random snippets of conversation.

The game is popular because it"s simply the best out there, and it"s going to continue to be popular as long as that is the truth. Sure it could change a lot of things for the better and it could patch better and hundreds of other wishful thinking type scenarios. But the bottom line is the IP, while strong amongst non-mmo gamers originally, didn"t sell 10m boxes. The fact it was and still is better in it"s "niche" than all the current competition by a longshot is why it"s still the best selling mmo in history.

And I despise many of WoW"s systems. But it"s impossible not to see what it has done "right."

edit - There"s a sizeable gaming market out there that is still relatively untapped. WoW hasn"t touched numbers that many console games sell domestically let alone globally. It"s a different type of game, sure, but as the computer literacy rate continues to grow as exponentially as it has been there will be more and more people interested in this type of gaming. Assuming that WoW will continue to grow as it has (from what I recall it hasn"t been growing as fast as it was pre-tbc and just post-tbc) with surges around expansion, the number of potential gamers will continue to outstrip the current market offerings. New IPs shouldn"t have any problem developing a large to gargantuan playerbase if they commit to similar quality and testing that WoW goes through as well as being fun.

Rayne said:

You"re predicating these claims on presumed knowledge of what the gameplay of EITHER was going to be like. Knowledge you could NOT have possibly had until you played both. Because it presumes that LotR fans decided NOT to play it because of the factors you mentioned. Do you really believe that whats likely much more than 5 million potential fans, just suddenly decided NOT to play LotRO for various reasons? Or even TRY it for that matter?



And for equally numerous legitemate reasons, its NO more secure than anything else. You really buy that "its like WoW so everyone will quit WoW now" shit? Quality won"t matter when its only more of the same done a little different, and with a slightly varied pitch. It will NOT bring new blood into the market. If it intends to compete directly with WoW, it will NEED to bring in a built-in following of its own.

And thats before even considering what WoW will very likely accomplish from this point forward. The bar is being raised every time they release anything new. You"re looking at this as if Blizzard will be doing nothing in the time it will take for a new IP to establish itself, secure a sizable fanbase, and finally release a finished product. Sorry man. You"re only fooling yourself.

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I think you"re dumb.

In my guild, which is pretty casual family type of guild, some of us had gotten into beta and loved it. Out of the 6-8 folks that were in the beta only 2 of those had played Blizzard games before and it wasn"t Warcraft.

In the guild the numbers are about 2 out of 10 had heard of Blizzard before WOW with one of those possibly playing a Blizzard game before. The others came because of the beta, the open beta, and the raving that everyone was doing about it.

It had nothing to do with MMO vets and everything to do with a fantastic game. Although how many guild do you know of that moved en mass to WOW the day that it opened?? I can list at least 7 just from my EQ server. Hell, you combine all the other games out there and list all the people that just up and left their game when WOW released and you will get a whole lot of numbers.

Then add in all the folks that just came because a buddy said it rocked. We have had this argument dozens of times and for 4 years. Its not about Blizzard and Warcraft....its about a good game.

The only reason I posted what I did, is because even if you haven"t played a Blizzard game, you knew about Blizzard as a company. If you were a gamer you absolutely knew of their reputation. This caused you to at least "try" the game. Their history forced the average MMO gaming consumer, and new MMO player, to "think" about purchasing it.

If you don"t think that had any factor you are fooling yourself. Otherwise why does every company, in every industry, have some form of marketing team. We are sheep, and will follow a brand we like till the day we die. We try new ones based on reputation and word of mouth only, except for some daredevils and innovators.

Wow would be a huge success if it was only the North American numbers it was getting, which most of "our MMO"s" only do. They are a BRAND because of their history and success in the international market.

Blizzard dropping World of Warcraft was like Coke dropping a New Coke campaign. It wasn"t really a risk for them to try an MMO. Mythic dropping a DAOC for example was like your local brewery"s new beer release.

38 is doing the right thing by creating their brand in the market they want to have longevity in. I DAMN GUARANTEE you their game has at minimum a 5-10 year plan, in which they hope to spread their IP out in alternate revenue sources.

I"m also quite sure their is some Korean MMO that has bad ass game play, has lore, has a following, and their board of directors is saying why can"t we crack the NA/European market. No brand history.

Gaereth said:

We have had this argument dozens of times and for 4 years. Its not about Blizzard and Warcraft....its about a good game.

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Well, as usual, its one of those things that cannot be definitively argued either way with any certainty. But it definitely cannot be argued from a "gameplay" standpoint. Someone had to play it for anyone to know.

However, you simply don"t get that many people clamoring like they did for WoW on the very day it launches. Its amazing how easily forgotten are the lines out the door at places like Gamestop and Best Buy to get a copy just days after launch. Anyone who thinks a new, completely unheard of fantasy IP is going to pull that off, is most likely in for serious disappointment. If an IP the likes of LotR couldn"t do it, and from the looks of things yet another the likes of Warhammer likely won"t, I highly doubt something no one has ever heard of will.

But I suppose we"ll see. Again, I wish the best of luck to 38 Studios.

I think this type of thinking is exactly what Activision (or whoever owns fucking Blizzard today) wants everyone to think. It can"t be done. Don"t bother trying. You"ll never achieve similar levels of success in the MMORPG-space as we did.

Make it fun.
Appeal to the masses.
Make it accessible to your average gaming rig.

Yes, MMORPGs are complex and difficult to develop but it sure as hell seems like title after title is yet another example of some clusterfuck which was destined for the garbage pile of forgotten games. Time after time these games get released and appear to be unwilling to even attempt greatness.

When it comes to sci-fi, the entire concept space hasn"t even been tested. Anarchy Online was so crippled by it"s mess of a release that it never had a chance of seeing how far it might have gone. Eve, despite the rabid loyalty to it by many on these boards, is a poor example of suggesting how a typical game company might make a sci-fi rpg. I don"t think anyone since Funcom has really taken a crack at trying a true sci-fi rpg with a playstyle similar enough to WoW/EQ/etc to even determine if a sci-fi based MMORPG is doomed to failur merely for being based in sci-fi and not in high fantasy.

Strong, existing IPs are great but POSITIVE word-of-mouth is what sells and continues generating new subscribers. You can"t shine a turd by calling it D&D Online.

I agree with you, absolutely. I don"t think the industry has anything fresh at the moment. Problem is when you become a billion dollar corporation, you better have the best reason in the world and willing to donate your first born to convince your board why you want to try something new.

Or leave Blizzard and start your own company.

Red 5 where the F you at anyway...

Blackulaa said:

Blizzard dropping World of Warcraft was like Coke dropping a New Coke campaign. It wasn"t really a risk for them to try an MMO. Mythic dropping a DAOC for example was like your local brewery"s new beer release.

38 is doing the right thing by creating their brand in the market they want to have longevity in. I DAMN GUARANTEE you their game has at minimum a 5-10 year plan, in which they hope to spread their IP out in alternate revenue sources.

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I call bullshit. Blizzard EXECUTED and MARKETED their idea well. Sure, they had very reasonable expectations to think that they"d make a profit on WoW. To suggest that they"d achieve the levels of success they did achieve merely because they"re Blizzard though is rubbish.

As for 38 Studios, they can go make comics, novels or whatever they wish. It doesn"t change the fact that their an unproven and untested company when it comes to MMORPGs.

Rayne said:

Well, as usual, its one of those things that cannot be definitively argued either way with any certainty. But it definitely cannot be argued from a "gameplay" standpoint. Someone had to play it for anyone to know.

However, you simply don"t get that many people clamoring like they did for WoW on the very day it launches. Its amazing how easily forgotten are the lines out the door at places like Gamestop and Best Buy to get a copy just days after launch. Anyone who thinks a new, completely unheard of fantasy IP is going to pull that off, is most likely in for serious disappointment. If an IP the likes of LotR couldn"t do it, and from the looks of things yet another the likes of Warhammer likely won"t, I highly doubt something no one has ever heard of will.

But I suppose we"ll see. Again, I wish the best of luck to 38 Studios.

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Thousands and thousands of people had been playing it for months AND telling everyone about it. Their open beta was 8 months long. Their beta was more fun that most peoples second year...thats why it did so well.

When you have 8 months of free advertising saying our game rocks you do well...especially if the game does in fact actually rock.

Gaereth said:

Thousands and thousands of people had been playing it for months AND telling everyone about it. Their open beta was 8 months long. Their beta was more fun that most peoples second year...thats why it did so well.

When you have 8 months of free advertising saying our game rocks you do well...especially if the game does in fact actually rock.

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Why do you seem to insist that i"m debating this particular point? I"m not. But I know theres much more to it than that. So let me ask you this as directly as possible, in the simplest terms I can think of:

Do you honestly believe, that in a sector of the mmo genre where nearly everything has already been done in nearly every conceivable manner possible, with nearly every possible "variation" of the same story told from nearly every conceivable angle, using more "variations" of the SAME systems that have been used for 10+ years,that a completely new, yet to be established, "fantasy" IPcan bring substantial improvement to every aspect of mmos, AND exceed WoW"s current AND future potential accomplishments?

Because THATS what its going to take. Perhaps you believe it can. I happen to disagree.

Why do you need to make it more complicated than it is? It"s pretty freaking simple. If you make a good game that is accessible, fun and addictive then it"s going to be a huge seller. The IP is secondary to all of that. It may help your initial offering but gameplay trumps all. That"s the bottom line. Another fantasy game that sets the bar in the way WoW did 3 years ago has just as good of a chance at being a million+ seller as well. This is even a safer bet with fantasy because the mass market likes the familiar.. and fantasy is familiar.