2010. Let"s be honest. Off the record. It"s pretty much going to happen. Beyond that I don"t have much to say that hasn"t already been said. But I"m going to underline it.
We can never ignore the opposition.
A number of them are going to be niche, but will attract a lot of players. One that stands out to have the potential to be a surprise hit is,
"The Secret World".
All told, with a little flexibility and timing with regards to release dates, I don"t forse any of this batch of games being a serious challenger to Copernicus market share.
The bad news is that there are two other products highly likely (in my estimate) to ship in the second half of 2010 that could do massive damage to Copernicus numbers. I"m going to play these two games. Over 90% of the people on this forum are going to play these games. And enjoy them.
Diablo III and Final Fantasy XIV.
That"s right, Copernicus is launching alongside D3 and FFXIV. This is why the pre launch needs to be ramped up on the Copernicus IP, why so much ground work will need doing and why you need to be ready ahead of time and show flexibility with regards to release dates.
We know that end of year/Christmas is the banker for release of new, high profile titles. Very few games have the reputation, the following and the customer base required to launch mid year. Diablo is one of the few games that bucked the trend and, indeed, D2 launched mid year. We"re guessing - I can only say I believe D3 will release either mid or end 2010.
Square Enix are just as unpredictable, as seen by
the release dates of their product history.What I do want to do is underline, yet again, just how strong I believe Final Fantasy XIV (or whatever their next MMO will release as) will be. Ignore anyone with anything negative to say about this game. Don"t base any opinion whatsoever on FFXI, which was developed for PS2.
FFXIV is going to approach WoW numbers and threatens the work, livelihood and investment of every member of the 38S family.I truly believe that.
Thankfully, you can fully counter that threat. You do this by the growth of your IP pre release and by making sure you have some flexibility in your launch dates. You cannot afford to launch in a blaze of glory with a sudden massive media blitz. You must build awareness and anticipation over the six month period which follows your "dark" 12 months.