Okay, I"ll bite...
Flight said:
So, "Industry Prediction".
The "Next Generation" of MMORPGs is coming.Did I hear a "*cough* bullshit *cough* at the back ? Let me explain. Next gen won"t be technical. It"s not going to be virtual reality or 3D graphics. It is games that have learned the very basic lessons that the short history of the industry have to offer.
I"m quite literal and thus a generation is defined by an iteration and building upon the best of what came before. Since MMO"s take roughly 5-6 years from inception to completion let"s use that with the overlap. Given that, I"d say we"re in the midst of generation 2 and working on generation 3. I"m also keeping the focus to subscription and "classic" style MMO"s, adding the other branches gets unmanageable and I want to stick to one family tree.
Generation 0: IRC, play by e-mail, web games, MUD"s (This is obvious)
Generation 1: (1999-2004) Asheron"s Call, EverQuest, Ultima Online, Meridian 59, Dark Age of Camelot, Anarchy Online, and others.
Generation 2: (2003-2008) World of Warcraft, EVE Online, EverQuest II, Warhammer, Conan, Star Wars Galaxies, Final Fantasy, Matrix Online, City of Heroes, Vanguard, and several others.
Generation 3: (2009-2014) Whatever Blizzard is making, Star Wars: Old Republic, Whatever Carbine is making, Heroes of Telara, whatever else Trion is making, Copernicus, and others.
Now let"s play evolution...
Generation 1: There were three main models that passed on their genes -- Ultima Online, EverQuest and Dark Age of Camelot. There were traits that the second generation inherited from all the other games but the primary evolutions in generation 2 came from those three.
What did generation 1 teach us? MMO"s work. Playing with other people is fun. Raiding is cool. Organized PvP is cool. Emergent gameplay is not always a bad thing. Among a whole host of other things, but it was all new.
Generation 2: What defines generation 2 is a refinement of the main ideas from the prior generation. In this, one game had one very key adaptation: Accessibility. Other evolutions happened they just were not as successful.
But what has Generation 2 taught us? People like to play "around" others but not necessarily always "with" others. Accessibility and polish are of critical importance when there are choices. Focus on what your game IS not what it COULD be. (A corollary is that radically changing a game mid-flight is probably a bad idea). Building massive worlds and system generated content to fill them is bad.
Generation 3: We"re just starting here. But there are now two generations to learn from. Not all the ideas from generation 1 were refined in generation 2 since they were so overshadowed by the one big adaptation of Accessibility and polish. I think those are a given by now, if you don"t have that adaptation you can"t compete in the natural selection. The question is, will Generation 3 hit on anything like that adaptation and be a clear trait to carry forward? Perhaps... a lot of us are guessing what it could be, and it might be that there is more than a single answer.
What do I think generation 3 teach us? Story (personal and world focused) is more important than people guessed. You can successfully apply the working models to more genres than fantasy. You can make a massively single player game and still be successful. If you don"t seriously include socialization as a goal you"ll have a serious retention problem.
Flight said:
From mid 2010 we are going to see truly fun, quality MMO"s appearing on the market. For the first time, WoW is going to see serious competition.
I agree here. Though you will still see MMOs coming out which do not have quality built into their DNA, they"ll be obvious and you"ll see the same pattern as the last few MMO releases until someone gets it right. And trying to play Xerox and copy WoW without understanding the practices that produced WoW is missing the point and hasn"t really inherited that trait.
Flight said:
The "type" of the company is driven from the very top and depends on the senior staffs commitment to quality and openness to change.
Good leadership is vital to any company. It just happens that with game companies the views of the leadership are *directly* reflected in the games those companies produce.