I'll be able to post a pre- and post-obamacare cost of the same surgery here in a few weeks.
I would not be shocked by a favorable result for Obamacare in this area - is not standardization of cost of medical procedures a big part of ACA? (regionally)
<Rambling begins>
In terms of actual healthcare, other than questions of who will bear the expense, a problem for ACA is what's going to happen with primary care doctors. Seeing a specialist in the US is much easier than in the UK or Canada with good insurance - much shorter wait on average. Where the US falls far behind is access to primary care doctors. One reason is that we already have a shortage of primary care doctors, and the supply is only shrinking further.
Primary Care Doctor Shortage - How Does the Health Care Law Address It - AARP
the United States is short about 16,000 primary care doctors ... Why the shortage? It starts with huge medical school debts and ends with a doctor who is often overworked and underpaid. While students may enter medical school wanting to practice primary care medicine, they graduate saddled with heavy debt - $250,000 is not unusual - which prompts them to switch to a more lucrative specialty.
Sounds like a problem - how does ACA address it? Let's take Medicare for example. One might think allowing primary care doctors to charge more, thus enticing more to enter this field, thus increasing the supply of service providers, thus reducing the cost of services (through competition) to a market determined equilibrium point, thus providing the same quality service as before to as many as possible, would be the way to go. *note - I in no way imply this was how things worked pre-ACA for Medicare.
No, instead we will use wise central planners, the champions of efficiency. Our central planners, being very wise, foresee all obstacles and are never taken by surprise by external events which might impact ability to meet artificial target growth rate. Just look at how well another of our central planners, the Great Bernanke, predicted and pre-empted the 07-08 financial crisis. /s
Independent Payment Advisory Board - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
which has the explicit task of achieving specified savings in Medicare without affecting coverage or quality. ...will determine in particular years the projected per capita growth rate for Medicare for a multi-year period ending in the second year thereafter (the "implementation year"). If the projection exceeds a target growth rate, IPAB must develop a proposal to reduce Medicare spending in the implementation year by a specified amount.
In other words, primary care doctors aren't going to be seeing pay increases for Medicare patients (10% bonus through 2015 meaningless long term). We're going to see rationing of a diminishing supply. The supply will diminish because there will be no increased incentive for people to become primary care doctors on the basis of pay(already low), and the supply will be rationed because that's how central planners determine who gets which services.
Note: Providing money to train additional primary care physicians is not necessarily an incentive for someone to actually practice primary care - doctors can and do respecialize:
AARP:'Only one in five graduating internal medicine residents plans to go into primary care medicine, the Journal of the American Medical Association reports."
What will the rationing look like? Same as always - substitute a lower quality service to mask reduced access. Back to AARP article:
The ACA authorizes money to increase the primary care workforce by training more doctors, nurses, nurse-practitioners and physician assistants. ... The law expands the number of patients seen at community health centers in areas with too few doctors and increases the number of staffers who work in the centers. It also expands nurse-managed clinics at nursing schools where nurses in training see patients who live in the area.
MD's are expensive. We'd save a lot of money by replacing responding to the primary care physician problem by supplying physician assistants, for example, to fill in the gaps. Save even more with nurse practitioners. This is the future of healthcare under ACA - fill in doctor shortages with less qualified professionals, save a lot of money. I'm sure IPAB and policians will have plenty of bullshit to spew about how this is not a reduction in quality of care. Whatever the bullshit, I know who I want reviewing for interactions between my prescription drugs.
*I know PA's practice under the supervision of MD. This is not the same quality of service as directly being seen by the MD.