Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Blazin
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Agree , except in the severity of the cure. 10% is not needed. If they would just adjust now to the two year would likely take care of it .
the Fed needs to automate open market operations and just peg the Fed fund rate to the two yr yield and be done with it .
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Sanrith Descartes
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Yeah, the 10% number was a more "symbolic" number to represent them needing to get serious and just rip off the bandaid.
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Mist
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Yes, we're fucking spoiled. The Euro and the Yen are both totally fucked and we're throwing a tantrum about 1 quarter of regression to the mean in GDP and some elevated inflation.
We have things so good here in the US that I've lost interest in either side constantly claiming that things are fundamentally broken.
Tmac
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You're comparing the wrong things by comparing mostly broken things.
Compare where we're at today to where we were on the gold standard.
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Zog
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I'm assuming big money is now positioned for earnings, cheap puts and holding shares. I would imagine most of retail is yolo leveraged long.
I really think this little rally today is due to the negative gdp report, big money betting on rate cuts.
I really think this little rally today is due to the negative gdp report, big money betting on rate cuts.
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Sanrith Descartes
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So time for a teaching moment. I had some free time this afternoon between meetings and decided to analyze all my closed positions (not all portfolio positions but only ones I have closed out of). I went back to 2019 through today. For those using Fidelity on the ATP platform, just go to "accounts" and then "closed positions" to find the info.
After getting all the data (I did not include options trades, just equities to make it comparable) in Excel, I then put it into a pivot table and took a look. One take away I got for myself is that my trading is improving year over year. By taking the total $$ invested in each symbol (this is why using a pivot tale helps as it will aggregate multiple trades of the same symbol) and the total profit/loss $$ I can see year over year my total profit/loss of my closed out positions.
I personally think this type of analysis is critical to improving as an investor. Not necessarily this particular analysis, but you have to objectively look at all your trades. There are a couple of trades I had forgotten about (for good reason, they were bad). This type of critical look can help you decide if you are holding your losers too long or are you taking profits from runners off the table when warranted etc.
Takeaways:
I am improving each year. I am making better choices, cutting my losers shorter and am taking some profits even from long term holds when the situation warrants and this is reflected in my increases profit percentages year over year. Early on the bulk of my closed positions were bad trades or my shifting my investing strategy with the market. The last couple of years I have more clearly defined my strategy and really focused my discipline to not straying outside of it.
Year Closed position Gain/Loss %
2019 3.93%
2020 4.08%
2021 10.46%
2022 22.35%
Excluding SPACS and MEME stocks that were quick flips, my best trading over the last four years has been in NVDA. Trading in and out of it I have pulled a 70% realized profit off the table. A day trader would easily surpass that percentage, but for me I tend to hold stocks for much longer periods.
After getting all the data (I did not include options trades, just equities to make it comparable) in Excel, I then put it into a pivot table and took a look. One take away I got for myself is that my trading is improving year over year. By taking the total $$ invested in each symbol (this is why using a pivot tale helps as it will aggregate multiple trades of the same symbol) and the total profit/loss $$ I can see year over year my total profit/loss of my closed out positions.
I personally think this type of analysis is critical to improving as an investor. Not necessarily this particular analysis, but you have to objectively look at all your trades. There are a couple of trades I had forgotten about (for good reason, they were bad). This type of critical look can help you decide if you are holding your losers too long or are you taking profits from runners off the table when warranted etc.
Takeaways:
I am improving each year. I am making better choices, cutting my losers shorter and am taking some profits even from long term holds when the situation warrants and this is reflected in my increases profit percentages year over year. Early on the bulk of my closed positions were bad trades or my shifting my investing strategy with the market. The last couple of years I have more clearly defined my strategy and really focused my discipline to not straying outside of it.
Year Closed position Gain/Loss %
2019 3.93%
2020 4.08%
2021 10.46%
2022 22.35%
Excluding SPACS and MEME stocks that were quick flips, my best trading over the last four years has been in NVDA. Trading in and out of it I have pulled a 70% realized profit off the table. A day trader would easily surpass that percentage, but for me I tend to hold stocks for much longer periods.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Furry
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We could fix things, it'd just take a politician willing to put his neck on the line like Lincoln did when he stood against most of his party on how to bring the South back into the Union. We have to think long term and accept that in the short term, we need to go through some tough times to build a future prosperity. I don't think there's a politician on either side that'd do that unfortunately.
So I don't think it's doom, just that we're creating more unnecessary long term grief than we really needed to, due to poor management of the nation's finances.
Sanrith Descartes
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Zog
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Veteran trader I know thats been in the market for a long time told me most of the big boys use slow stochastic indicators for buys/sells.
Were definitely in the "buy" area. (QQQ daily)
Sanrith Descartes
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Except politicians are incapable of thinking beyond the next election cycle. Their philosophy is why have long term thinking if it gets me booted out the next election and I can't complete it.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Furry
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Captain Suave
Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
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Same goes for a lot of business leadership. Hyper-focus on near term growth and market cap/stock price metrics does not necessarily select for durable and long-term profitable businesses. I see TOOOONS of under-investment, maintenance deferral, and general can-kicking in the industries I consult in. Next year's problems are for the guy sitting in your chair after you get promoted or take a C-level position in a bigger company.
Edit: There was a pretty hilarious project I worked on maybe 15 years ago in the refining industry. This company kept having crazy profitability cycles and wanted help figuring out what was going on. It turns out that their booms and busts matched perfectly with rotations in plant management. One team would come in and slash maintenance budgets to the bone. Profit skyrockets, he looks like a superstar, gets promoted. Next guy inherits a crumbling hellhole on the verge of exploding. Triples maintenance, tanks profitability, but fixes the problems. Gets fired. Next guy repeats cycle.
They switched to a different set of management performance metrics, and viola, different behavior.
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