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Jysin

Jysin

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*(US) FOMC SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS (SEP) FOR JUNE: Raises long run rate forecast for second consecutive time; Cuts median forecast projection to 25bps of rate cuts in 2024 (prior 75bps) - Source TradeTheNews.com
- Raises Median forecast for end-2024 rate 5.125% (prior 4.625%)
- Raises Median forecast for end-2025 rate 4.125% (prior 3.875%)
- Affirms Median forecast for end-2026 rate 3.125% (prior 3.125%)
- Raises Median forecast for Long Run rate 2.75% (prior 2.625%) - Source TradeTheNews.com
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Yea, hawkish dot plot. Went from 3 projected cuts in 2024 from the May meeting to just 1 cut projected from this June meeting.

Markets just don't seem to care.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Looks like Kitty sold 80,000 of his calls and exercised 40,000. No calls now and he is long 9 million shares of GME plus $6m in his cash account.
If my math is right he owns more than 2% of the company. Board seat incoming?

 
  • 3Mother of God
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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fris said:
Is Chatgpt integrated into Siri really that big a deal?
Click to expand...

Yes but not for reasons that people think.

Most people are convinced that this is a great win for Apple, or they are cynically manipulating that sentiment for profit.

In reality, "Apple Intelligence" and ChatGPT partnership is disastrous for Apple because they are essentially admitting that they are already throwing in the towel on the AI race, barely after it began. This is the one emerging space where they could have reclaimed market leadership and they shit the bed entirely on it, proving yet again that they are absolutely worthless as a software company, which only leaves them as a hardware company where growth and innovation is much more limited. Speaking of hardware, they recently announced that they gave up on Apple Car after 10 years, which is a space they should have fought tooth and nail for because that path would have led eventually to robotics (especially household robotics) and played to their strength in building hardware.

They have lost out badly on every major tech development in the last 10 years. That ChatGPT announcement should have tanked the stock price by $40, not raised it.
 
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Palum

Palum

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Araysar said:
Yes but not for reasons that people think.

Most people are convinced that this is a great win for Apple, or they are cynically manipulating that sentiment for profit.

In reality, "Apple Intelligence" and ChatGPT partnership is disastrous for Apple because they are essentially admitting that they are already throwing in the towel on the AI race, barely after it began. This is the one emerging space where they could have reclaimed market leadership and they shit the bed entirely on it, proving yet again that they are absolutely worthless as a software company, which only leaves them as a hardware company where growth and innovation is much more limited. Speaking of hardware, they recently announced that they gave up on Apple Car after 10 years, which is a space they should have fought tooth and nail for because that path would have led eventually to robotics (especially household robotics) and played to their strength in building hardware.

They have lost out badly on every major tech development in the last 10 years. That ChatGPT announcement should have tanked the stock price by $40, not raised it.
Click to expand...

Lucky for them we have a hype economy not a revenue economy
 
Foler

Asshat Foler

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Added 15 shares of NVDA @ 128ish cost basis yesterday. Gonna long hold till the 4 trillion $ market cap we will see by EoY.
 
  • 1Diamond Hands
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fris

fris

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Araysar said:
Yes but not for reasons that people think.

Most people are convinced that this is a great win for Apple, or they are cynically manipulating that sentiment for profit.

In reality, "Apple Intelligence" and ChatGPT partnership is disastrous for Apple because they are essentially admitting that they are already throwing in the towel on the AI race, barely after it began. This is the one emerging space where they could have reclaimed market leadership and they shit the bed entirely on it, proving yet again that they are absolutely worthless as a software company, which only leaves them as a hardware company where growth and innovation is much more limited. Speaking of hardware, they recently announced that they gave up on Apple Car after 10 years, which is a space they should have fought tooth and nail for because that path would have led eventually to robotics (especially household robotics) and played to their strength in building hardware.

They have lost out badly on every major tech development in the last 10 years. That ChatGPT announcement should have tanked the stock price by $40, not raised it.
Click to expand...
We have a saying around work; some people, if you told them to design a new toaster, they'd eventually get you their design and it world be late cause that made it nuclear powered. Now, it's "put ai in it" , except now they're rewarded for over(under?) engineering everything
 
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Haus

Haus

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Foler said:
Added 15 shares of NVDA @ 128ish cost basis yesterday. Gonna long hold till the 4 trillion $ market cap we will see by EoY.
Click to expand...
Here's a question I've been trying to hammer out an answer to.

The NVDA play is obviously around the AI chip play, and it makes complete sense. But with the political situation involving Taiwan (where NVDA makes it's chips), what is the play if chip manufacture there is no longer viable? TMSC and others have talked about how they have plans in place to destroy the manufacturing capacity if China retakes the island. Virtually no chip maker is still doing major fab work here in the US and are years off from even thinking about having that capability here. So what's the contingency play?
 
Foler

Asshat Foler

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Haus said:
Here's a question I've been trying to hammer out an answer to.

The NVDA play is obviously around the AI chip play, and it makes complete sense. But with the political situation involving Taiwan (where NVDA makes it's chips), what is the play if chip manufacture there is no longer viable? TMSC and others have talked about how they have plans in place to destroy the manufacturing capacity if China retakes the island. Virtually no chip maker is still doing major fab work here in the US and are years off from even thinking about having that capability here. So what's the contingency play?
Click to expand...
Buddy if something happens to Taiwan, your NVDA stonks should be the last of your concern.
 
  • 1Truth!
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Haus

Haus

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Foler said:
Buddy if something happens to Taiwan, your NVDA stonks should be the last of your concern.
Click to expand...
I wholly agree, but I think it should be a contingency consideration in there somewhere so that if it goes to hell, you're hedged in a way you don't have to think about other than sell the NVDA and cry over that loss.

Just like I invested in URNM because I still believe that for the next 20-30 years at least the most viable non-hydrocarbon based energy source is still nuclear.

If China rolls on Taiwan then it's obviously WWIII, and any new investment at that point would be in the MIC and defense contractors. That and unfortunately I would also say probably moving away from reliance on USD. Because if Russia and China decide to throw hands at the US and BRICS sides with them (meaning Saudia Arabia too) it will NOT be a kind financial fight for the US.
 
OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Mist said:
looool
Click to expand...


Haha, this is easy. A buyer is paid on how much money he/she can save the company. One of them saw a fat bonus by agreeing to a ridiculous, but less than reputable, contract. Turns out it was fake! Everyone is (not) surprised.
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Haus said:
Here's a question I've been trying to hammer out an answer to.

The NVDA play is obviously around the AI chip play, and it makes complete sense. But with the political situation involving Taiwan (where NVDA makes it's chips), what is the play if chip manufacture there is no longer viable? TMSC and others have talked about how they have plans in place to destroy the manufacturing capacity if China retakes the island. Virtually no chip maker is still doing major fab work here in the US and are years off from even thinking about having that capability here. So what's the contingency play?
Click to expand...

I'd have to go and double check, but I think TSMC makes the vast majority of all advanced processors for everyone, not just NVDA.

So if TSMC goes offline, all of NVDAs competitors who make AI chips are in the same boat as NVDA. I don't think it would change the equation in favor of one company or another.

Given that... I think NVDA is probably the only company positioned well enough to eventually create their own fab facilities somewhere. They have a war chest now that's large enough to burn a lot of money on R&D and spending the effort and cash to build their own fab to become vertically integrated from raw materials to packaged product.

Basically, I don't think it matters for NVDA if that scenario should come to pass.

Personally, I think the more realistic scenario is that in a few years Taiwan will realize that US can't defend them and will just hang them out to dry like Ukraine. So their best bet is eventual gradual reunification on China's terms, with some sort of Macau type system at first where they get a nominal amount of independence in their own affairs, while delegating matters of national security to China (this would include TSMC). China gets the fabs and now becomes the biggest exporter of chips. But if this scenario happens, this is just another reason for NVDA to pursue vertical integration outside of Taiwan.
 
Tmac

Tmac

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I feel like the AI plays have left the station and I’ve missed out on early adoption via my stonks.

Am I wrong?
 
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