Investing General Discussion

Haus

Haus

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Araysar said:
I'd have to go and double check, but I think TSMC makes the vast majority of all advanced processors for everyone, not just NVDA.

So if TSMC goes offline, all of NVDAs competitors who make AI chips are in the same boat as NVDA. I don't think it would change the equation in favor of one company or another.

Given that... I think NVDA is probably the only company positioned well enough to eventually create their own fab facilities somewhere. They have a war chest now that's large enough to burn a lot of money on R&D and spending the effort and cash to build their own fab to become vertically integrated from raw materials to packaged product.

Basically, I don't think it matters for NVDA if that scenario should come to pass.

Personally, I think the more realistic scenario is that in a few years Taiwan will realize that US can't defend them and will just hang them out to dry like Ukraine. So their best bet is eventual gradual reunification on China's terms, with some sort of Macau type system at first where they get a nominal amount of independence in their own affairs, while delegating matters of national security to China (this would include TSMC). China gets the fabs and now becomes the biggest exporter of chips. But if this scenario happens, this is just another reason for NVDA to pursue vertical integration outside of Taiwan.
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I think there are other chip manufacturers who would be in better positions. Texas Instruments for instance, they still have fabs in a lot of places (including here in Dallas). But IIRC they would have to massively upgrade/retrofit them to do modern density chip manufacture. That was what I was wondering, who would be the best/fastest to recover. Or who might already have manufacturing outside Taiwan.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Haus said:
I think there are other chip manufacturers who would be in better positions. Texas Instruments for instance, they still have fabs in a lot of places (including here in Dallas). But IIRC they would have to massively upgrade/retrofit them to do modern density chip manufacture. That was what I was wondering, who would be the best/fastest to recover. Or who might already have manufacturing outside Taiwan.
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Texas Instruments processors serve an entirely different market, their smallest chips are 50-60 nm and TSMC's are 3 nm. TI's chips go into cars, industrial robots, consumer appliances.

Most of TSMC's revenue comes from sub 10 nm chips, while most of TI's revenue comes from 100+ nm chips

Its like comparing a car factory to a bicycle factory.
 
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Haus

Haus

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Araysar said:
Texas Instruments processors serve an entirely different market, their smallest chips are 50-60 nm and TSMC's are 3 nm. TI's chips go into cars, industrial robots, consumer appliances.

Most of TSMC's revenue comes from sub 10 nm chips, while most of TI's revenue comes from 100+ nm chips

Its like comparing a car factory to a bicycle factory.
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That's why I said they'd have to retrofit existing fabs. As opposed to Nvidia (and I THINK AMD, but not sure) who would have to build fabs from the ground up.

I've literally done work in a bunny suit in a TI fab in the past. They're set up much like assembly lines and pretty modular. But they would still have to swap out virtually all the equipment. OTOH, if the shit hits the fan with China I could see the government (regardless of which party is supposedly running it at the time) spinning up the money printer to hand out a trillion with a quickness to "re-invigorate American manufacturing capacity". Then the question is do they have a head start because they already have fab class facilities (i.e. clean room manufacturing sites) ready to retrofit and go. And more importantly, are there ANY other chip manufacturers who could cope with losing Taiwan?
 
Foler

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Araysar said:
I'd have to go and double check, but I think TSMC makes the vast majority of all advanced processors for everyone, not just NVDA.

So if TSMC goes offline, all of NVDAs competitors who make AI chips are in the same boat as NVDA. I don't think it would change the equation in favor of one company or another.

Given that... I think NVDA is probably the only company positioned well enough to eventually create their own fab facilities somewhere. They have a war chest now that's large enough to burn a lot of money on R&D and spending the effort and cash to build their own fab to become vertically integrated from raw materials to packaged product.

Basically, I don't think it matters for NVDA if that scenario should come to pass.

Personally, I think the more realistic scenario is that in a few years Taiwan will realize that US can't defend them and will just hang them out to dry like Ukraine. So their best bet is eventual gradual reunification on China's terms, with some sort of Macau type system at first where they get a nominal amount of independence in their own affairs, while delegating matters of national security to China (this would include TSMC). China gets the fabs and now becomes the biggest exporter of chips. But if this scenario happens, this is just another reason for NVDA to pursue vertical integration outside of Taiwan.
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TLDR: what Araysar said. TSMC is down to like 2nm wafer sizing last I checked with their only competitor at that size being Samsung. It’s not just something another fab company can spin up and do. Those fabs take years to build on top of that.
 
Araysar

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Haus said:
That's why I said they'd have to retrofit existing fabs.
Click to expand...

What I'm saying is that TI doesn't have the knowledge nor the capability to "retrofit existing fabs" no moreso than a bicycle plant can retrofit itself into a car factory

It's an entirely different set of knowledge and capability
 
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Bandwagon

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1718408186379.jpeg


I guess I should have posted this earlier, but I didn't think it was going to pass the house.

Probably a good time to buy Skydio. They're the cunts that have been lobbying to get DJI banned.

No idea if Anzu Robotics is publicly traded, but they'd be my next choice if so
 
Palum

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Bandwagon said:
View attachment 532818

I guess I should have posted this earlier, but I didn't think it was going to pass the house.

Probably a good time to buy Skydio. They're the cunts that have been lobbying to get DJI banned.

No idea if Anzu Robotics is publicly traded, but they'd be my next choice if so
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I think this is a good move for me. Since I avoided buying a DJI drone so far and now I can laugh at all my friends who have been enjoying them.
 
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Araysar

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Bandwagon said:
Also, I legit thought skydio was a publicly traded company. Don't know how I'm misremembering that one
Click to expand...

How far apart are DJI products from Skydio products in overall quality?

Is there a big gap in performance and quality?
 
Palum

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Araysar said:
How far apart are DJI products from Skydio products in overall quality?

Is there a big gap in performance and quality?
Click to expand...
Well I know their marketing is miles apart, never even heard of skydio
 
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Foler

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Araysar said:
How far apart are DJI products from Skydio products in overall quality?

Is there a big gap in performance and quality?
Click to expand...
DJI is some impressive stuff. They’ve even spun off Livox, a lidar company that is killing it on pricing with their products.

LiDAR Sensors - Livox

Livox is committed to accelerating the autonomous world by unlocking the full potential of LiDAR technology. With a line of advanced LiDAR sensor units, we offer companies and developers a reliable route for incorporating this technology into their projects and platforms.
www.livoxtech.com www.livoxtech.com
 
Khane

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I think this is the appropriate thread to discuss net worth/investment tracking apps/sites/software.

I previously used Mint, which was simple to use and had all the information I wanted in a fairly decent UI. I could add/link my accounts easily and it mostly just worked.

Recently Intuit sunset Mint and moved it to CreditKarma, and CreditKarma... fucking sucks. So question for all you financially minded friends out there.

What apps/sites/software would you recommend to serve this purpose? A simple dashboard that you can link accounts to for automatic overall wealth/debt tracking?
 
Palum

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Khane said:
I think this is the appropriate thread to discuss net worth/investment tracking apps/sites/software.

I previously used Mint, which was simple to use and had all the information I wanted in a fairly decent UI. I could add/link my accounts easily and it mostly just worked.

Recently Intuit sunset Mint and moved it to CreditKarma, and CreditKarma... fucking sucks. So question for all you financially minded friends out there.

What apps/sites/software would you recommend to serve this purpose? A simple dashboard that you can link accounts to for automatic overall wealth/debt tracking?
Click to expand...
Monarch
 
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Gravel

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I'm old school. I use an excel spreadsheet.

We've changed to quarterly, but we basically just log into the accounts and check.

We did monthly from 2018 until we retired. Annually before that from the time we started aggressively saving for early retirement.

Untitled.png
 
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Flobee

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Gravel said:
I'm old school. I use an excel spreadsheet.

We've changed to quarterly, but we basically just log into the accounts and check.

We did monthly from 2018 until we retired. Annually before that from the time we started aggressively saving for early retirement.

View attachment 533241
Click to expand...
I don't like giving third parties that much data so I do something similar to this
 
fris

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I hate intuit, only reason we have to file taxes is cause they lobby our govt to continue requiring us. If you're legit, the govt already knows everything, filling is just a way to fuck up or pay more in taxes. They could make it simple for everyone, but intuit won't let that happen.

That said, I loved Mint and used credit karma. Mint to check ask my accounts, easy way to see if a credit card was being used that you didn't recognize. I've got about 12 cards and don't want to log into 5 banks to have piece of mind.

Credit karma is basically a free credit check and estimate of your credit score. When I refinanced my home a few years ago, my bank asked me my score and I said "credit karma thinks it's ###" and that was good enough for him to get all the pre paperwork started.

I haven't used CK really since mint moved over, I just know it's not as detailed. Mint would get wrong the type of spend, so thinking you spend X on groceries would be off cause it can't split up all my Amazon purchases correctly and I'm not doing it.

Now I just log into each bank and pay off each credit card every Friday, gives me a good idea of my steady spend.
 
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