Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,810
- 2,338
The equity risk premium is in the dumpster and hasnt been favorable since january. This market needed a much bigger correction back in April yet here we are. 20k on the nasdaq by probably tomorrow.
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
-
Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
The equity risk premium is in the dumpster and hasnt been favorable since january. This market needed a much bigger correction back in April yet here we are. 20k on the nasdaq by probably tomorrow.
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,124
- 36,620
Almost 14% above 200d moving average on S&P. This is a danger zone that I have watched for many years. Historically it hasn't always meant imminent drop the market at times will trades sideways for months as this stat cools off as the moving average works its way higher.
Last time this condition existed was late march/early april. It was 17% in Dec20 and it stayed elevated for a considerable period. It should be noted this is the period that the 200d really started turning up from flat and it can get left behind in these situations, that is not our situation now the slope of the 200d has largely been in place for over 12 months and we are now accelerating away from it.
Strongly considering reducing SPY holdings. This is market timing and I'm not recommending it but just want to be upfront about positions. If I make that decision it would likely look for a quick reentry, any alpha you gain on a decline off a trade like this with long term money is only locked in when you get back in. Gaining a 3% edge is maybe all it nets but 3% outperformance is still something that can add up. THe mistake people often make with selling is their failure to get back in just have to remember that any buy back in at a lower level is a "gain" in the position. It doesn't have to be perfectly sidestepping a decline.
Last time this condition existed was late march/early april. It was 17% in Dec20 and it stayed elevated for a considerable period. It should be noted this is the period that the 200d really started turning up from flat and it can get left behind in these situations, that is not our situation now the slope of the 200d has largely been in place for over 12 months and we are now accelerating away from it.
Strongly considering reducing SPY holdings. This is market timing and I'm not recommending it but just want to be upfront about positions. If I make that decision it would likely look for a quick reentry, any alpha you gain on a decline off a trade like this with long term money is only locked in when you get back in. Gaining a 3% edge is maybe all it nets but 3% outperformance is still something that can add up. THe mistake people often make with selling is their failure to get back in just have to remember that any buy back in at a lower level is a "gain" in the position. It doesn't have to be perfectly sidestepping a decline.
- 7
- 11,109
- 59,375
- 1
TJT
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 43,198
- 110,710
Im going to try this as well thanks for the tip.
Firefly is kinda cool but it would take me a solid 3 months to get it into a remotely viable state for me and a year to reach half the functionality this has.
Asshat Foler
2024 FoH Asshat
- 48,194
- 43,397
Oh boy. My entire 401k is in sp500 and majority of my personal portfolio FXAIX followed my QQQM…
- 1
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 40,315
- 133,563
Unless you're selling, you're not taking a loss.
Index funds work best if you just ignore them.
Also, that's something conventional wisdom ignores for even regular retirees. It's not like you liquidate everything when you turn 65. If you expect to live another 20-30 years, you probably need to be invested in something that still provides growth.
Index funds work best if you just ignore them.
Also, that's something conventional wisdom ignores for even regular retirees. It's not like you liquidate everything when you turn 65. If you expect to live another 20-30 years, you probably need to be invested in something that still provides growth.
- 3
Asshat Foler
2024 FoH Asshat
- 48,194
- 43,397
Yeah I know I know. All of it is minimum 5 year hold investments. Still not a fun “phase” to go through! I may go a little bearish and stop DCAing in, hold cash and see if there’s a correction
.
Tmac
Adventurer
- 10,073
- 17,138
Yeah I know I know. All of it is minimum 5 year hold investments. Still not a fun “phase” to go through! I may go a little bearish and stop DCAing in, hold cash and see if there’s a correction
The key to DCA’ing is DCA’ing.
- 1
- 1
Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,809
- 1,920
I am not as experienced or articulate as our resident god Blazin, but I also have about 50k in SPY puts for near year end. I had posted about I before as part of my scanners which reported extremely high transition on the C
ratio on SPY. I failed in my post, but I was trying to say I think the sentiment is shifting. Anyway it’s a small position and my outs are lower than blazons, but I’m just looking for a sharp drop to increase the price before theta eats me.
- 1
Asshat Foler
2024 FoH Asshat
- 48,194
- 43,397
sometimes you guys really love to throw logic and reasoning at me when I get that emotional investing mindset.
I appreciate that
Asshat Foler
2024 FoH Asshat
- 48,194
- 43,397
Am I reading this wrong or are we technically at 21% 200 day moving average?
S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis - Barchart.com
Technical Analysis Summary for S&P 500 Index with Moving Average, Stochastics, MACD, RSI, Average Volume.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 40,315
- 133,563
I'm curious about relying on things like the 200 day, and how they fared in years we've had 20-35% gains. Especially, like I mentioned before, periods like the 80s, late 90s, and post great recession.
Seems like it likely didn't matter then and the markets sustained rallies over several years.
Seems like it likely didn't matter then and the markets sustained rallies over several years.
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,124
- 36,620
Different stat, that is how much the 200d has climbed. The stat I'm referring to is how much the current price is higher than the 200dAm I reading this wrong or are we technically at 21% 200 day moving average?
S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis - Barchart.com
Technical Analysis Summary for S&P 500 Index with Moving Average, Stochastics, MACD, RSI, Average Volume.www.barchart.com
- 1
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,124
- 36,620
100% true, why makes me nervous to even make a post like that. I am market timing, that is dangerous and often doesn't work. Any decline that goes on to make new highs is absolutely meaningless other than maybe an opportunity to buy more. Nobody should be selling out of "fear", I'm selling out of "greed" it may or may not work for me, but I know myself as an investor and I have discipline to adjust my course when wrong. I just don't want to come on here three months from now and say "hey guys I sold SPY back in June" . To be honest part of me wants it to not work because there is more to be learned by people here seeing that and how I handle being wrong, than seeing it work.
So to reiterate I think the market will be higher in the future, the highest likelihood of success is to set it and forget it. Having said that I sold just under 1000 shares of S&P yesterday.
We have been so green even a little red could have people flipping out, "Oh shit the market dropped three percent!!" We are in a very strong trend there is a lot of anomalies underneath and they are building. You know what's not building? Credit spreads. While I'm seeing unhealthy internals there are some big flashing things I'm NOT seeing that you would expect to see heading into financial weakness. So we are in a weird hard to read space. My guess is that means consolidation time.
- 3
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,386
- 123,596
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,124
- 36,620
I already feel guilty for telling you I wanted it lower on the April dip. On the plus side told my wife we probably owe a significant percent of our gain we took in the S&P yesterday to NVDA. So I guess what I really did was sell NVDASo... you're saying I should be buying NVDA here?
- 2
- 1
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 40,315
- 133,563
Are you fucking kidding me that the markets are closed today? I know this isn't the thread for it, but that's ridiculous. When the only holidays it used to be closed for were like Christmas, Thanksgiving, Memorial, and Labor Day, this just sounds insane to me.
- 2
- 1
Palum
what Suineg set it to
- 27,477
- 43,698