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Palum

Palum

what Suineg set it to
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I dunno. I agree that we're in novel circumstances, but I wonder if it's really a case of real inflation vs "reported inflation". So for example, is market activity and valuation abnormal or really just a better indicator of the ridiculous inflation rates once you tease all those secret Biden bucks out into the market. So everyone is "surprised" that NVDA could be 4T but if we all had better information we'd be shocked if it wasn't.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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Palum said:
I dunno. I agree that we're in novel circumstances, but I wonder if it's really a case of real inflation vs "reported inflation". So for example, is market activity and valuation abnormal or really just a better indicator of the ridiculous inflation rates once you tease all those secret Biden bucks out into the market. So everyone is "surprised" that NVDA could be 4T but if we all had better information we'd be shocked if it wasn't.
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I think there's definitely some of that going on. The real inflation rates are far better measured by the price of eggs than whatever DC says.

Teasing out that delta and reacting to it correctly seems like a good opportunity to make some money, IMO.
 
Gravel

Gravel

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That rebalancing will also force massive price hikes on Nvidia, and potentially crush Apple? I mean, the many, many indexes won't all rebalance at once, but they all will eventually.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
That rebalancing will also force massive price hikes on Nvidia, and potentially crush Apple? I mean, the many, many indexes won't all rebalance at once, but they all will eventually.
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I think they mention the saving grace is the volume of shares that normally trade in AAPL and NVDA
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Blazin said:
So you’re predicting a price a 7% away for a stock that can move 3% in a day and is up 180% ytd?
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I was told by some big brains here that averaging a 1% daily return here is practically impossible and that we should all be happy with 13% average SPY returns because you cant "time the market" or "just pick winners"

Here I am offering you an opinion that will net you a 15% return in 8 weeks but now you're upset with me because my prediction is "too safe". Seems like some of you are just looking for a reason to be upset.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Araysar said:
I was told by some big brains here that averaging a 1% daily return here is practically impossible and that we should all be happy with 13% average SPY returns because you cant "time the market" or "just pick winners"

Here I am offering you an opinion that will net you a 15% return in 8 weeks but now you're upset with me because my prediction is "too safe". Seems like some of you are just looking for a reason to be upset.
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You misunderstand, I followed your advise and bought . 24hrs later I’m down 9% what should I do now?
 
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Araysar

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Blazin said:
You misunderstand, I followed your advise and bought . 24hrs later I’m down 9% what should I do now?
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"Seems like some of you are just looking for a reason to be upset."
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Foler

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Blazin said:
I’m still holding a quarter million on small caps and in the last five months so far it 10% underperforming big tech , yet still remains in a healthy configuration. At some point the long term averages are going to come and give price a poke and it will have to shit or get off the pot.

I’m still confident given the length of its confinement that the move could be explosive. I would still expect that move to be a rotation qqq down a few percent iwm up 3% kind of days .

Still holding Ui but up almost 30-40% so quickly has me eyeing the exit .
Sitting on nice gains in Apple Not looking to sell.

Snow and sbux are my red positions both only around 15-20k invested so I’m not too concerned with that but neither chart looks that great . Sbux from a day trader time frame shows some life off this low . At this point my expectations for both are currently poor .

Sonfar this year more active strategies would have been more fruitful but also more time consuming , I really do dislike low volatility markets, I can’t beat the market with a low vix so not much to do but be patient

One of my goals this year was to reduce the tax bite and that requires some changes to behavior that make a little cautious about changing things that have worked for me .

Longs : spy rps iwm ijs aapl goog snow sbux dis ui low qqq fbtc xlv xlf xle amzn c tsla
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Apologies to revive an older post Blazin Blazin but I remembered you listed your long positions and wanted to dig through them. How much emphasis do you put on balancing your long term portfolios sectors? For instance my personal account is very heavy in big tech due to fxaix and qqqm. Are you holding XLV, XLF and XLE to for the sake of diversification or is there a more strategic reasoning? All your decisions seem to be very strategic so I would assume the latter.
 
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