Investing General Discussion

Blazin · Jun 22, 2024

Foler said:
Apologies to revive an older post Blazin but I remembered you listed your long positions and wanted to dig through them. How much emphasis do you put on balancing your long term portfolios sectors? For instance my personal account is very heavy in big tech due to fxaix and qqqm. Are you holding XLV, XLF and XLE to for the sake of diversification or is there a more strategic reasoning? All your decisions seem to be very strategic so I would assume the latter.

For the most part I like to trade the broader index (SPY,QQQ, IWM etc.) but every year I take positions in sectors that I think might be set up for outperformance. Those trades can often be a waste but sector catch up trades can be in the 40% yearly gain at times so you don't need them to work that often.

As far as the first paragraph we are pretty at the moment I was speaking of. This rally needs to broaden out or it's going straight into the shitter.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2024

Blazin said:
For the most part I like to trade the broader index (SPY,QQQ, IWM etc.) but every year I take positions in sectors that I think might be set up for outperformance. Those trades can often be a waste but sector catch up trades can be in the 40% yearly gain at times so you don't need them to work that often.

As far as the first paragraph we are pretty at the moment I was speaking of. This rally needs to broaden out or it's going straight into the shitter.

I'm going off memory, so I could be wrong on this, but I believe there is a pretty solid track record of stocks post split where the euphoria wheres off and people realize it didn't really create any real value (they got more shares at less price) so first the buying stops and then the selling begins. Not calling it on NVDA yet, it's place in the AI trade is a unique variable, but we are in buyback blackout so if it stumbled we could all be taking an elevator ride

If I am misremembering the data then, fuck it it's Saturday and I'm too lazy to dig it up.

Blazin · Jun 22, 2024

Not something I've ever looked into, NVDA peak day felt toppish but also didn't feel quite as extreme as what you'd expect for a substantial top given the run it's made. The counter to that is, consensus is a lot of people looking for "one more big push" . Bullish sentiment doesn't die easily.

The broad market is on it's last leg here, eager to see how next week plays out, one scenario certainly could be catch up trades and continued winners taking it on the chin

Zog · Jun 22, 2024

I don't see a broadening anytime soon. .25% rate cuts and holding aren't going to do fuck all for manufacturing or retail.

If anything i predict the crash everyone's pining for won't happen until rate cuts actually happen, which statistically is what happens and then a push back up a month later.

Blazin said:
Not something I've ever looked into, NVDA peak day felt toppish but also didn't feel quite as extreme as what you'd expect for a substantial top given the run it's made. The counter to that is, consensus is a lot of people looking for "one more big push" . Bullish sentiment doesn't die easily.

The broad market is on it's last leg here, eager to see how next week plays out, one scenario certainly could be catch up trades and continued winners taking it on the chin

Cutlery · Jun 22, 2024

I don't make many posts in this thread, but I just wanna throw out another shout-out to

Sanrith Descartes and others for the retirement advice.

I cashed out my pension at the beginning of November, to the tune of $64,000 and tossed it in an IRA which has 100% of its position in SPLG. Right now it's worth $80,000, meaning, if I'm not retarded, that's a 25% ROI in about 8 months.

Figured I'd toss that out there because I'm rolling another 401k plan into that since apparently SPLG outperforms the managed plan from my previous employer. Oh, and they charged me $15 for the privilege of getting my fucking money from them. Shitheels.

fris · Jun 22, 2024

My friend.... Had a similar opportunity coming up. ..he... Is looking at a layoff in Sept. This will allow switching the 401k and it's limited choices to an IRA, #silver_lining.

There will be a decent severance and the debate is trying to buy into a small biz or a franchise or trying to find another similar job in this economy

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2024

Cutlery said:
I don't make many posts in this thread, but I just wanna throw out another shout-out to Sanrith Descartes and others for the retirement advice.

I cashed out my pension at the beginning of November, to the tune of $64,000 and tossed it in an IRA which has 100% of its position in SPLG. Right now it's worth $80,000, meaning, if I'm not retarded, that's a 25% ROI in about 8 months.

Figured I'd toss that out there because I'm rolling another 401k plan into that since apparently SPLG outperforms the managed plan from my previous employer. Oh, and they charged me $15 for the privilege of getting my fucking money from them. Shitheels.

Almost the entirety of the historical data that exists tells us it is really really hard to consistently outperform the S&P 500 over time. Glad it worked out. The timing was definitely on your side with this one.

sliverstorm · Jun 22, 2024

Gravel said:
I'm curious about relying on things like the 200 day, and how they fared in years we've had 20-35% gains. Especially, like I mentioned before, periods like the 80s, late 90s, and post great recession.

Seems like it likely didn't matter then and the markets sustained rallies over several years.

I was curious about this as well, since S&P 500 makes up 100% of my portfolio. Specifically, about using 200D as a metric for market timing to sell and then buy back in.

Below is a chart that shows every day the S&P500 was <=14% above the 200 day moving average since 1960. The chart then simulates the outcome of executing a simple trading strategy of selling on that day and then either buying back in at a 3% gain in blue (if the S&P500 falls that much lower than the sell price or more--I displayed the max gain/min price if you were omniscient just for fun) or buying back in at whatever the final price is after one quarter/60 days:

Summarizing the chart, you get your 3% gain 55% of the time, compared to a 51.5% success rate executing the same strategy on a random day. So it is predictive, and that predictive power goes up as the price breaks further away from the 200 day average:

Price % above 200 D moving average	Strategy Win Rate
All	52%
14%	55%
15%	56%
16%	58%
17%	61%
18%	72%
19%	82%

19% is just under 100 days out of ~15,000 in the sample. By 20% pretty much all of your 39 data points are in 1975 and the early 80s.

Which is to say, there's certainly consistent validity here, but it seems like you still need a lot more technical knowledge (or a more sophisticated strategy) to trade it right at this current level, which I don't possess. I'll continue to ride the passive investor wave.

Sanrith Descartes · Sunday at 8:36 PM

Re: stock splits. I misremembered. Here is a link to a study. They don't tend to perform stellarly, but they also don't tend to tank which was how I had remembered it. Other studies tend to agree with these findings.

How Stocks Tend to Perform After Stock Splits - Schaeffer's Investment Research

Looking at stocks after stock splits, stocks with bearish analysts have more positive returns than bullish

www.schaeffersresearch.com

Mist · Monday at 11:42 AM

Mist said:
All in on DJT at this price!

cashing this out and putting it in ETHE

Jysin · Wednesday at 12:58 PM

USD/JPY getting interesting. Intervention all but guaranteed at this point. Multi decade levels hit today.

Sanrith Descartes · Wednesday at 1:22 PM

Jysin said:
USD/JPY getting interesting. Intervention all but guaranteed at this point. Multi decade levels hit today.

They have been intervening. For a while now. It ain't been working.

Haus · Thursday at 9:53 AM

Sanrith Descartes said:
They have been intervening. For a while now. It ain't been working.

The problem is the level of intervention they need to do to keep the situation from careening into a ditch is such that it will cause a cascade of other shitstorms. We're approaching, IMHO, a "choose how you die" economic inflection point on a probably global scale.

Sanrith Descartes · Thursday at 10:04 AM

I'm old enough to remember when WBA was included in the DOW 30 and was a $60 stock. Seems like it was only yesterday.

Palum · Thursday at 10:29 AM

Sanrith Descartes said:
I'm old enough to remember when WBA was included in the DOW 30 and was a $60 stock. Seems like it was only yesterday.

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What is the "current pharmacy model" because they're basically convenience stores that you can sometimes get drugs at these days.

Araysar · Thursday at 10:48 AM

Palum said:
What is the "current pharmacy model" because they're basically convenience stores that you can sometimes get drugs at these days.

I think that's the model. The retail footprints are large, almost always expensive (because they always gun for corner locations on major intersections), the product selections are basic. I don't know which carries which. If the Rx side is carrying the retail then they need to shrink the retail and expand the RX. If the retail is carrying the RX (which is the likely scenario) then they need to figure out how to make themselves into a retail destination, not an RX destination.

For example, I use Costco as a pharmacy because I can always grab a couple things there that are needed at the house. This is never the case at Walgreens or CVS. I hardly ever need anything there because product selection sucks and is overpriced.

Hence I have no incentive to ever go to CVS or Walgreens

Palum · Thursday at 10:59 AM

Araysar said:
I think that's the model. The retail footprints are large, almost always expensive (because they always gun for corner locations on major intersections), the product selections are basic. I don't know which carries which. If the Rx side is carrying the retail then they need to shrink the retail and expand the RX. If the retail is carrying the RX (which is the likely scenario) then they need to figure out how to make themselves into a retail destination, not an RX destination.

For example, I use Costco as a pharmacy because I can always grab a couple things there that are needed at the house. This is never the case at Walgreens or CVS. I hardly ever need anything there because product selection sucks and is overpriced.

Hence I have no incentive to ever go to CVS or Walgreens

Right like I'd sooner go to a gas station convenience store over Walgreens because the prices are somehow more reasonable.

Araysar · Thursday at 11:01 AM

A gas station or 7-11 offers a better retail experience than CVS/Walgreens most of the time.

Lots of their business is archaic too. E.g. they still have a photo department

Kithani · Thursday at 7:42 PM

Palum said:
What is the "current pharmacy model" because they're basically convenience stores that you can sometimes get drugs at these days.

The current pharmacy model involves vertical integration and inserting extra middlemen companies to extract more money out of the healthcare system via completely useless entities called PBMs

Walgreens will eventually buy/merge with ExpressScripts just like CVS did with Caremark

Tmac · Thursday at 10:36 PM

Kithani said:
The current pharmacy model involves vertical integration and inserting extra middlemen companies to extract more money out of the healthcare system via completely useless entities called PBMs

Walgreens will eventually buy/merge with ExpressScripts just like CVS did with Caremark

Express Scripts got delisted?

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