Investing General Discussion

Blazin

Blazin

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Gravel said:
Are you fucking kidding me that the markets are closed today? I know this isn't the thread for it, but that's ridiculous. When the only holidays it used to be closed for were like Christmas, Thanksgiving, Memorial, and Labor Day, this just sounds insane to me.
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To celebrate this joyous occasion I unlocked the goat pen door to the paddock but I didn't open it. This way when they figure out they are free to leave it will give them some of that Juneteenth joy that we all feel on this special holiday.

Kinda sucks they are robbing another 3% up day in NVDA from us. Apologies to Amod for off topic, really is annoying
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
To celebrate this joyous occasion I unlocked the goat pen door to the paddock but I didn't open it. This way when they figure out they are free to leave it will give them some of that Juneteenth joy that we all feel on this special holiday.

Kinda sucks they are robbing another 3% up day in NVDA from us. Apologies to Amod for off topic, really is annoying
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Goat Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
Araysar

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Gravel said:
Are you fucking kidding me that the markets are closed today? I know this isn't the thread for it, but that's ridiculous. When the only holidays it used to be closed for were like Christmas, Thanksgiving, Memorial, and Labor Day, this just sounds insane to me.
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Listen up, bigot....
 
Araysar

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Gravel said:
I'm curious about relying on things like the 200 day, and how they fared in years we've had 20-35% gains. Especially, like I mentioned before, periods like the 80s, late 90s, and post great recession.

Seems like it likely didn't matter then and the markets sustained rallies over several years.
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The interesting thing about DMAs whether they are 9 day, 20 day, 50 day or 200 day is that they often become self fulfilling prophecies because traders and algos rely on them so much.

I did not enjoy learning this fact but it's very useful.
 
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Araysar

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Blazin said:
I already feel guilty for telling you I wanted it lower on the April dip. On the plus side told my wife we probably owe a significant percent of our gain we took in the S&P yesterday to NVDA. So I guess what I really did was sell NVDA
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I hate to give away proprietary Stock Pals info but I am very bullish on NVDA. $150 by end of summer (but probably much sooner) Doesn't matter if you believe in AI hype or not, others do.
 
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Foler

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Araysar said:
I hate to give away proprietary Stock Pals info but I am very bullish on NVDA. $150 by end of summer (but probably much sooner) Doesn't matter if you believe in AI hype or not, others do.
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It’ll be 4 trillion dollar market cap company by EoY. Screenshot this for receipt, folks.
 
Blazin

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Araysar said:
I hate to give away proprietary Stock Pals info but I am very bullish on NVDA. $150 by end of summer (but probably much sooner) Doesn't matter if you believe in AI hype or not, others do.
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So you’re predicting a price a 7% away for a stock that can move 3% in a day and is up 180% ytd?
 
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Palum

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Blazin said:
So you’re predicting a price a 7% away for a stock that can move 3% in a day and is up 180% ytd?
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Are you saying he's wrong? Or just wrong for having a reasonably safe prediction?
 
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Blazin

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Palum said:
Are you saying he's wrong? Or just wrong for having a reasonably safe prediction?
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I have no interest in if he is right or wrong, and given it no thought. I just find predicting a move, maybe over months, that is within the standard deviation of a weekly move is just kind of obvious. I would suspect someone on the opposite spectrum of "very bullish" may well have the exact same belief that could be a probable outcome, and if the Very bullish and the Very bearish agree on a prediction I'm just not sure what it's value is.

He was responding to me taking profits, and I'm horribly communicating that a remaining few percent move outlook for a stock up 180%+ in 6 months would have no barring whatsoever on that decision. So TLDR araysar and I agree that NVDA could hit $150
 
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Palum

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Blazin said:
I have no interest in if he is right or wrong, and given it no thought. I just find predicting a move, maybe over months, that is within the standard deviation of a weekly move is just kind of obvious. I would suspect someone on the opposite spectrum of "very bullish" may well have the exact same belief that could be a probable outcome, and if the Very bullish and the Very bearish agree on a prediction I'm just not sure what it's value is.

He was responding to me taking profits, and I'm horribly communicating that a remaining few percent move outlook for a stock up 180%+ in 6 months would have no barring whatsoever on that decision. So TLDR araysar and I agree that NVDA could hit $150
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We can't all be Jim Cramer
 
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Rod-138

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I have to reset my cost basis anyway and may as well do it in chunks while we know the capital gains are capped at 20%

selling around 40% of my after tax etfs, which will suck to pay taxes on next year, but should help me long term.

selling 100% of IRA money and plan to DCA or my version of DCA over the next few months.

for clients I’m being less aggressive and basically turning 60/40 portfolios that have grown into 70/30 portfolios and turning them into 50/50 portfolios, if that makes any sense.
 
Blazin

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My concern with the balanced portfolio is its vulnerable to a horrible double whammy. If inflation re accelerates the 50/50 port will see near the worst declines in its history and for an investment mix that is meant to be low volatility low risk that could really hurt the unaware, much like it did in 22. It worked for so long and made true believers out of bogleheads because interest rates declined for decades upon decades. If we truly have started a new long term trend the 50/50 portfolio will not be t he safe haven it was for most living people's entire financial experience even boomers.
 
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Blazin

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The above issue is an important one to understand. The Fed is full of economist who have no other lived experience. Their default assumption is that things will go back to the way they were, but fundamental things have shifted. MMT was the top call in bonds (or bottom call from a yield perspective). It's "transitory" was rooted in very strong, long held assumptions on market behavior. Economist emboldened governments to overspend. Go watch the older Fed talk as the chair practically begged for the govt to spend more money. Now we are at 7% of GDP, inflation is becoming embedded into the system and we are led by people who are going to be too slow to react to changes.

The largest unknown variable is the one that is oft the hardest to predict, and that is technologies impact on productivity. Technology has saved us and there is a thought that it always will. There will still be ebb and flow but I'm wagering we will set higher lows and set higher highs with interest and inflation through the next several cyclical cycles.

They are so eager to lower rates because they think they can force the market back into it's old position. We spend a lot of time talking about Fed action, ignoring fiscal impulse, which hasn't changed course one iota. You know what happens when you deficit spend 7% of your GDP every year? Inflation happens. There is no magical wand waiving by the Fed chair that can change that reality.

What does that mean for equities? It means if we value them in dollars we are going to see $10T companies. We are dumping an additional 2-3T into the system every year that money get's leveraged and bubbles inflate. People waiting for better asset prices will look back and pine for the glory days of '24 when you could get a starter house for $700k
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Rod-138 said:
I have to reset my cost basis anyway and may as well do it in chunks while we know the capital gains are capped at 20%
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It bears repeating that a goodly number of positive tax changes in the Trump tax cut bill sunset at the end of 2025. At this point its about 18 months away. I honestly would be surprised if there isn't a Congressional dog fight in the next year and a half to extend some of the changes (like doubling the child tax credit) and use a raise in capital gains taxes to pay for it. Depending on what happens, going back to tax brackets and dependents like we had in 2018 and before is going to be a shock for some folks. And by shock I mean a tax increase. Here is a link with a good breakdown of the changes that will sunset.

taxfoundation.org

Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations

Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org
 
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Rod-138

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When I say 50/50 it’s actually 50 stocks, 50 treasury, mm, 1-2 year individual bonds, structured bank notes, and zero bond funds.

So I call the other 50 ‘fixed’ even though it’s really just not stocks. I just hold the bonds to duration and keep the maturities < 2 years so they can be more legitimately safe, as long as the companies don’t go caput
 
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Rod-138

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I think Im getting like 5.6 - 6 on the bonds. My average client is 74 so they’re cool with it.
I was always scared of individual bonds until I started doing it a couple years ago and it’s not too bad to sort with Fidelity’s fixed income section
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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Blazin said:
They are so eager to lower rates because they think they can force the market back into it's old position. We spend a lot of time talking about Fed action, ignoring fiscal impulse, which hasn't changed course one iota. You know what happens when you deficit spend 7% of your GDP every year? Inflation happens. There is no magical wand waiving by the Fed chair that can change that reality.

What does that mean for equities? It means if we value them in dollars we are going to see $10T companies. We are dumping an additional 2-3T into the system every year that money get's leveraged and bubbles inflate. People waiting for better asset prices will look back and pine for the glory days of '24 when you could get a starter house for $700k
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Concur with this 100%. Congress is the cause of inflation, broadly speaking. The Fed raises rates to (attempt) get Congress to back off the spending by making it too painful to continue to deficit spend.

The trouble is, I'm not sure there CAN be any will for Congress to cut spending, because the things they'd have to cut are all 'third rail' subjects like medicare/medicaid. Veering back into how to react to this likelihood instead of a political harangue, this points to an increasingly inflationary environment for the next few years at least. Being in debt can thus be a good thing as long as the rates aren't killing you, as the debt you have gets inflated away. Don't keep any money in the bank other than discretionary necessity and find things to put your money into that will continue to go up in value at least even with inflation.

I think it was maybe a year ago when we were debating whether we were going to see an inflationary vs a deflationary environment going forward? I think we have the answer to that question. As long as congress doesn't make cuts, we get inflation. Notwithstanding some event like a major war starting or some other kind of black swan upending all of this analysis, naturally. God I hate election years.
 
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