I want to thank Araysar for stepping up to show what I'm talking about. The story I'm telling isn't that buybacks don't matter, or critical CEOs, of course they do. They drive sentiment just like a lot of factors. The Elon vote was a largely baked in as shown by it's price behavior and the overwhelming vote itself, even declining post vote. In araysar's world the people listing off negatives on apple at 160 were thinking to themselves, "Man declining revenue, no new products, shitty goggles, no real AI play, trouble in china, but if they just continue the buybacks they have been doing for a decade I think I'm willing to pay 30% more for this company. Even the Tesla example, at the lows Elon was a liability at the sentiment change he is an asset. The factors at play did NOT change people's feelings about them did. The naysayers where out of the stock stronger hands stayed in. The weak then follow in until there is too many of them and the cycle will begin a new.
While I think he just wants to remind me of his disdain, my only point to this thread is to not get too focused on a company needing to fix and address all of its problems for sentiment to turn. It's a pendulum and it's human behavior that is showing through the price action, we take it too far and in both directions. When you enter a SWING trade think about where the pendulum currently is and what direction is it moving.
Many of us, very much myself included, sometimes get too caught up buying a stock while the pendulum is still moving to the left. When I started looking at Tesla pendulum i told folbro that it likely had more to move in that direction and indeed it did. Or we get so use to the current momentum we have trouble envisioning a change. When it shows strength and breaks its momentum that is when you can act.
Long term investors say to hell with all of that, I dont want to have my ear to the rail to do any of that, and to that I understand. Companies that continually execute and have strong prospects for continuing to do so in the future will make healthy returns, and we have a cool index full of every winner to buy and hold and not worry about any of it. All the above is only relevant IF someone has decided they want to engage in active swing trading, it's not an argument for doing so.
Palum
as he lists a bunch of things that affect sentiment, then those things dont matter. When stock starts moving in the direction you want it to due to similar factors i.e. buybacks or clarity on a CEO's future then its "The story I'm telling isn't that buybacks don't matter, or critical CEOs, of course they do. They drive sentiment just like a lot of factors."
Foler
out there still doesnt know if he is going to make money on SNOW. Maybe he will if he holds it for a few years. At least have the common decency to own that, but you can't. You haver bestowed upon yourself the mantle of stock genius and the Emperor has to have clothes. He just has to. That is the only thing I will remind you of, time and time again. Not my disdain, but your endless unearned arrogance.
