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Blazin

Blazin

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Foler said:
Gotcha. So hold onto SNOW is what I’m getting from this post. Thanks for the insight
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I don’t think I’ve mentioned sentiment and snow, I didn’t enter at sentiment washout and that was mistake. When I’m buying because of sentiment I usually state that directly , “I’m buying because I can’t find any reason to…” type posts . Snow has popped about 15% off its lows may have more to run but if you want off the ride during a pop like this would be the time do that not during the lows.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Tmac said:
Can you speak more to this? Over the past few years I’ve learned to look for entries and exits using the daily moving averages. I’ve also learned that you need an entry and exit strategy, particularly with shorter term holds.

But one thing I don’t get, while I do understand its importance, is measuring and planning to respond to “sentiment”.

How exactly do you get a feel for what people think? Do you, for example, watch the “experts” on SquawkBox, read WSB on Reddit, listen to some talking heads, and consolidate the ideas? Or is it more nuanced and harder to explain and create a system around?
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I read and listen a lot, I try to get a feeling for the group think and pay attention to when it really starts to hum in unison. CNBC , financial twitter, even here . It helps me to know the individual on how they normally think if they are always an Eore then i would put less weight on it,

Tsla Apple and dis wins all three I was able to post here , have people regurgitate almost word for word the case against the position . The unison part is important , you want the bear case to be near universal , once the experts down the hobbiest all share the same thought that is usually time . Another point , I have to also feel bearish , not saying oh the dumb people think the wrong thing and I know better. It’s more “we are all being too negative and are blinded to other outcomes “

If the purchase doesn’t feel “scary” to me then it isn’t time
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Blazin said:
View attachment 535009

View attachment 535010

I'm reiterating this to try to prove a point. I didn't predict the future or read a cash flow statement, all I did was understand people and their emotions. Sentiment wins, NOT A GOD DAMN THING has changed since 50% ago. The "what about this, what about that!" constant chatter means fuck all. Learn to watch for sentiment to wash out on a company people have shown they CAN become excited about. Don't sell into poor sentiment unless it's an issue of a company being a going concern. When sentiment washes out and turns there can be significant returns. Understand people and you'll start making more money than worrying about CaseSchiller says its overvalued!

It seems to be the major theme of the year for me. Apple and Tesla both same situation and significant returns for me. Sentiment at tops can be a harder read because we have a default towards the positive. That may not seem true but you have to filter your thoughts to people that are the current holders. Current holders of any stock are inherently leaning bullish, Jack on the sidelines with his dick in his hand is certainly bearish but his opinion isn't nearly as crucial to current price action. The best way to feel tops is when there aren't enough dick holding Jacks sitting on the sidelines.

So i'll take my annual salaries worth of a return and feel real bad that "Apple Revenue is down!" and "EV IS DEAD" all the way to the bank.
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"Not a goddamn thing has changed"?

Really?

Nothing changed at Tesla in the past weeks?

Also nothing changed for Apple? No $100B stock buybacks that jumpstarted AAPL moving upward again? Seems weird to discount biggest stock buyback in history as "nothing" but that's just me
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Blazin said:
I read and listen a lot, I try to get a feeling for the group think and pay attention to when it really starts to hum in unison. CNBC , financial twitter, even here . It helps me to know the individual on how they normally think if they are always an Eore then i would put less weight on it,

Tsla Apple and dis wins all three I was able to post here , have people regurgitate almost word for word the case against the position . The unison part is important , you want the bear case to be near universal , once the experts down the hobbiest all share the same thought that is usually time . Another point , I have to also feel bearish , not saying oh the dumb people think the wrong thing and I know better. It’s more “we are all being too negative and are blinded to other outcomes “

If the purchase doesn’t feel “scary” to me then it isn’t time
Click to expand...

This is once again the case of "on a long enough time line just about any stock will go up at some point", whether its TSLA, AAPL or DIS. Even if a company changed absolutely nothing for better or worse, stock price would slowly crawl up over the years simply due to inflation of monetary supply.

You brought up Disney, I held $5000 of Disney stock for YEARS and for YEARS it was underwater. I bought it in 2020 I think and finally dumped it a few months ago at a loss just to get my capital out.

I guess I'm just an idiot who should have waited 4 years instead of 3 years for his investment to pan out.
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Foler said:
Gotcha. So hold onto SNOW is what I’m getting from this post. Thanks for the insight
Click to expand...

Hold on to anything long enough and you're bound to get your money back. Might have to wait for a couple rate cuts though
 
Blazin

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Araysar said:
"Not a goddamn thing has changed"?

Really?

Nothing changed at Tesla in the past weeks?

Also nothing changed for Apple? No $100B stock buybacks that jumpstarted AAPL moving upward again? Seems weird to discount biggest stock buyback in history as "nothing" but that's just me
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No none of that is new nor a surprise to anyone.

explain what changed at Tesla to warrant a move from 140 to 210 that wasn’t already known?
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Blazin said:
No none of that is new nor a surprise to anyone.
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No board votes of confidence in some plucky visionary CEO who got his entire enormous multi billion pay package reinstated?

Man, I guess he wasn't important. I suppose they could have gone the other way then, offered him nothing, forced him out and nothing would have changed.

Stock price would have been entirely unaffected. He was just some idiot anyways.
 
Blazin

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His pay package has not been reinstated. Elons future is a major part of sentiment . It’s not an accounting metrics. I think you just want to be upset
 
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Blazin

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I want to thank Araysar for stepping up to show what I'm talking about. The story I'm telling isn't that buybacks don't matter, or critical CEOs, of course they do. They drive sentiment just like a lot of factors. The Elon vote was a largely baked in as shown by it's price behavior and the overwhelming vote itself, even declining post vote. In araysar's world the people listing off negatives on apple at 160 were thinking to themselves, "Man declining revenue, no new products, shitty goggles, no real AI play, trouble in china, but if they just continue the buybacks they have been doing for a decade I think I'm willing to pay 30% more for this company. Even the Tesla example, at the lows Elon was a liability at the sentiment change he is an asset. The factors at play did NOT change people's feelings about them did. The naysayers where out of the stock stronger hands stayed in. The weak then follow in until there is too many of them and the cycle will begin a new.

While I think he just wants to remind me of his disdain, my only point to this thread is to not get too focused on a company needing to fix and address all of its problems for sentiment to turn. It's a pendulum and it's human behavior that is showing through the price action, we take it too far and in both directions. When you enter a SWING trade think about where the pendulum currently is and what direction is it moving.

Many of us, very much myself included, sometimes get too caught up buying a stock while the pendulum is still moving to the left. When I started looking at Tesla pendulum i told folbro that it likely had more to move in that direction and indeed it did. Or we get so use to the current momentum we have trouble envisioning a change. When it shows strength and breaks its momentum that is when you can act.

Long term investors say to hell with all of that, I dont want to have my ear to the rail to do any of that, and to that I understand. Companies that continually execute and have strong prospects for continuing to do so in the future will make healthy returns, and we have a cool index full of every winner to buy and hold and not worry about any of it. All the above is only relevant IF someone has decided they want to engage in active swing trading, it's not an argument for doing so.
 
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Araysar

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Nothing changed, just millions of investors had a "change of sentiment" at the same time at 9 am on July 2nd, 2024 for no apparent reason at all. Just sentiment things.

1719926937615.png
 
Araysar

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Blazin said:
I want to thank Araysar for stepping up to show what I'm talking about. The story I'm telling isn't that buybacks don't matter, or critical CEOs, of course they do. They drive sentiment just like a lot of factors. The Elon vote was a largely baked in as shown by it's price behavior and the overwhelming vote itself, even declining post vote. In araysar's world the people listing off negatives on apple at 160 were thinking to themselves, "Man declining revenue, no new products, shitty goggles, no real AI play, trouble in china, but if they just continue the buybacks they have been doing for a decade I think I'm willing to pay 30% more for this company. Even the Tesla example, at the lows Elon was a liability at the sentiment change he is an asset. The factors at play did NOT change people's feelings about them did. The naysayers where out of the stock stronger hands stayed in. The weak then follow in until there is too many of them and the cycle will begin a new.

While I think he just wants to remind me of his disdain, my only point to this thread is to not get too focused on a company needing to fix and address all of its problems for sentiment to turn. It's a pendulum and it's human behavior that is showing through the price action, we take it too far and in both directions. When you enter a SWING trade think about where the pendulum currently is and what direction is it moving.

Many of us, very much myself included, sometimes get too caught up buying a stock while the pendulum is still moving to the left. When I started looking at Tesla pendulum i told folbro that it likely had more to move in that direction and indeed it did. Or we get so use to the current momentum we have trouble envisioning a change. When it shows strength and breaks its momentum that is when you can act.

Long term investors say to hell with all of that, I dont want to have my ear to the rail to do any of that, and to that I understand. Companies that continually execute and have strong prospects for continuing to do so in the future will make healthy returns, and we have a cool index full of every winner to buy and hold and not worry about any of it. All the above is only relevant IF someone has decided they want to engage in active swing trading, it's not an argument for doing so.
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Amazing, how you manage to talk out of both sides of your mouth.

When you trash Palum Palum as he lists a bunch of things that affect sentiment, then those things dont matter. When stock starts moving in the direction you want it to due to similar factors i.e. buybacks or clarity on a CEO's future then its "The story I'm telling isn't that buybacks don't matter, or critical CEOs, of course they do. They drive sentiment just like a lot of factors."

"The Elon vote was baked in"
The Elon vote was the opposite of baked in because the stock shot up from 170 to 190 around that time.

The only thing I want to remind you is that "holier than thou" attitude that you carry yourself with around this subforum when you routinely spew things that are laughably false and untrue. Then you pull the same "I'm a long term holder" every time one of your picks goes south. Poor Foler Foler out there still doesnt know if he is going to make money on SNOW. Maybe he will if he holds it for a few years. At least have the common decency to own that, but you can't. You haver bestowed upon yourself the mantle of stock genius and the Emperor has to have clothes. He just has to. That is the only thing I will remind you of, time and time again. Not my disdain, but your endless unearned arrogance.
 
Araysar

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Blazin said:
No none of that is new nor a surprise to anyone.

explain what changed at Tesla to warrant a move from 140 to 210 that wasn’t already known?
Click to expand...

Elon's payy package
large Q2 deliveries

I can probably dig up a few other things if i went looking.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Blazin said:
His pay package has not been reinstated. Elons future is a major part of sentiment . It’s not an accounting metrics. I think you just want to be upset
Click to expand...

I fully expect you to start playing legalese semantics now. Don't let me down.

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fris

fris

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why don't y'all fuck and get it over with?


seriously, y'all are very different types of investors and shouldn't be taking each others advice as it would be useless for the other's style.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Speaking of TSLA. 5-day chart. +19.5% move. Shorts getting lit.
They beat expectations on deliveries this morning. Stock up another 6% so far.

1719928509738.png
 
Blazin

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Araysar said:
When you trash Palum Palum as he lists a bunch of things that affect sentiment, then those things dont matter. When stock starts moving in the direction you want it to due to similar factors i.e. buybacks or clarity on a CEO's future then its "The story I'm telling isn't that buybacks don't matter, or critical CEOs, of course they do. They drive sentiment just like a lot of factors."
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Trash Palum? Perfectly valid feelings I felt as well, you may not be capable of following the nuance. Your a new parachuter into the thread people can judge for themselves what weight to put on anything I say or choose to ignore it all together. I'm not arguing with his points I'm saying they will prove less relevant than people's sentiment in the short term. Foler choose to follow me into a moonshot , I make trades that sometimes don't work out, a lot more that do.
 
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