Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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I'm only mad because every day this week I told myself "It blew its load for the week, its not gonna jump another $10-20 tomorrow" and went to play something else.
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I'm only mad because every day this week I told myself "It blew its load for the week, its not gonna jump another $10-20 tomorrow" and went to play something else.
Blazin
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Other stocks similar moves I'd be playing some in and out but looking at TSLA rallies from the past it gives very little room for play when it runs . A push to break even on the year around 260 seems quite probable resting point.
Besides the obvious support and resistance levels, I like to also look for ranges that you can draw a line back and hit that level repeatedly. It's a signal that it's an area of importance to investors.
We have rallied into a zone where the stock has spent a lot of time over 3 1/2 years.
the 200d is in a down slope, this indicator didn't work out for last years rally where it rallied into a down slope and held it for a half year, as an overall probability indicator rallies past a 200d usually have a check back during which the 200d will flatten and then if the stock doesn't fail will turn up. Some momentum funds won't enter until that occurs. Lots of similarities in the chart of TSLA and the chart of Small caps they have been in a bear market for quite awhile and they have a good bit of proving to do to get break out of it.
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Sanrith Descartes
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4% of the float is a fuckton of shares to be shorted on a stock this big. There is some pain going on and some covering which is contributing. Trump and Le Pen pushing for China tarrifs in the US and EU will also help push the stock higher.
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Blazin
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Man math fart adding a zero, I was like dang I wouldnt put $600k on that chart in a day trade right now...
Have you done well with pre market (AH) entries? One of my day trading rules for years not only avoided AH, I didn't trade in the first 15 mins or after 11. Now those are just rules I developed parsing years of profits/gains that they just weren't as profitable time frames for me. Many mornings watching that clock tick champing at the bit wanting to enter a trade. Once I had a database of thousands of trades in it I could start min/max what was giving me the highest probability of success.
What was interesting to me was that what wasn't working wasn't always obvious because I would be too focused on a particular win/loss rather than over the bigger picture
Have you done well with pre market (AH) entries? One of my day trading rules for years not only avoided AH, I didn't trade in the first 15 mins or after 11. Now those are just rules I developed parsing years of profits/gains that they just weren't as profitable time frames for me. Many mornings watching that clock tick champing at the bit wanting to enter a trade. Once I had a database of thousands of trades in it I could start min/max what was giving me the highest probability of success.
What was interesting to me was that what wasn't working wasn't always obvious because I would be too focused on a particular win/loss rather than over the bigger picture
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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You know its literally my 1st rule of what NOT TO DO.
I'd say my success rate is probably somewhere 50/50 on taking premarket buys into market open, basically a coin flip. That's why I stopped doing it. The only time I will violate this rule is when rule #10 kicks in. Once I got a better hang of figuring out where support/resistance lines are I started getting much more confident buying at support levels even if it was premarket. NVDA so far has pretty reliably bounced off 121 in the past few days, barring 1 or 2 short meltdowns below 120 but it quickly popped back over 121.
I have similarly given a lot of thought about optimal times for trading. I will still play 15 minute ORBs but I tend to stay away from first 5 minutes of action when market opens. Similarly, I tend to do a lot less trading after 11:30 am because most of the price action is done by then.
I have also been toying with various "all-day" systems where you are on a trading schedule based on time of day, like it shows in my rule #5. I think some strats definitely play much better in afternoon than morning when volume slacks. I typically try to do some discount shopping around that time, especially in last half hour of market open, so I can take a discounted price into premarket next day.
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Blazin
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Jysin
We need some rules up in here.I don't think there is a right answer , there is a right answer for you. Do what works, but make sure you are giving yourself the data you need to know that. There is almost no amount of poopsocking that is too much. It's why I ended up using excel because I wanted to keep track of so many things. A big one that I didn't do in the first few years was analyzing what happened to the trade in different time frames after I exited. which led to things like your rule 10 letting some winners run can make a big difference.
Rules I think are a must, people fail at daytrading because they lose control (ignore the people who simply lack the aptitude for it) but having said that your rules must be adaptive as the market goes through different cycles, something can work great for months and get completely turned on it's head when dynamics change.
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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I don't think there is a right answer , there is a right answer for you. Do what works, but make sure you are giving yourself the data you need to know that. There is almost no amount of poopsocking that is too much. It's why I ended up using excel because I wanted to keep track of so many things. A big one that I didn't do in the first few years was analyzing what happened to the trade in different time frames after I exited. which led to things like your rule 10 letting some winners run can make a big difference.
Rules I think are a must, people fail at daytrading because they lose control (ignore the people who simply lack the aptitude for it) but having said that your rules must be adaptive as the market goes through different cycles, something can work great for months and get completely turned on it's head when dynamics change.
I'm using TradesViz for aggregate analysis of trades (its similar to TraderVue). I had to wait a few months to build up enough data to analyze so I started only doing it since May. Its a lot of data, but there are definitely some noticeable patterns which clue me in to my own behavior which can work against me.
Things I'm looking at a lot are:
1. Types of tickers that tend to work well for me. Some industries I definitely trade better than others for some reason.
2. Trade duration. On average, 2-4 day swing trades within a single week tend to pay off better than daily intraday trading but theyre much rarer since the setup has to be really good, like buying a major company right after it took a nose dive after a good earnings report. CRM in past few weeks was a great example of that.
17% move back up in 1 month with little to no risk since Salesforce wasnt going to go anywhere on 1 bad ER in almost 20 years
3. Number of trades I make during a day which led directly to rule #2. There was a clear pattern that 2-3 times per month I would just do 10-20 roundtrip trades per day making very little or losing very little on each one. A lot of the time that was because my stop order would kick in and boot me out of a position and so I'd wait a few minutes and attempt to reenter at a lower price. Try get a better entry 1-2x sure, that's fine. But if I'm on attempt #17 with stock #4 trying to get a better price, just call it a day and go do something more productive, today isn't my day.
4. Time of day. This one is hard to pin down since my morning trades tend to be intraday but my afternoon trades tend to be swing trades. I use this one to determine if I'm doing better on playing the market open, or just looking for swing trade oppos throughout the week.
5. I manually do lookback checks on stocks I exited to see what happened afterwards (did i call it right, or wrong?)
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Sanrith Descartes
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To add on with my own experiences, while I don't and haven't day traded, I was for a very long time someone who didn't trade the first or last 30 minutes of the day. There was so much movement and flows going on in those two periods I found I was getting faked out too much by thinking those moves were indicative of the day. I have since done away with this prohibition but only because I now feel comfortable that I have the experience to make better reads during the open and the close.
As to extended hours trades, my record is total shit. I do my best now to avoid any trading outside the normal market hours. I am sub-50% in extended hours trades.
I can't agree enough how important it is to track every single trade. You cant manage what you cant measure. I also keep a separate watchlist in ATP of positions I have exited so I can keep them visible for me to see their movement after I exit and to see if my decision was correct.
As to extended hours trades, my record is total shit. I do my best now to avoid any trading outside the normal market hours. I am sub-50% in extended hours trades.
I can't agree enough how important it is to track every single trade. You cant manage what you cant measure. I also keep a separate watchlist in ATP of positions I have exited so I can keep them visible for me to see their movement after I exit and to see if my decision was correct.
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Araysar NVDA exit incoming next 15 mins and you can finish the day early.
Played the trailing stop a little too tight, got kicked out. Still made just under $400 though. Its probably for the better. Its been half hour and it mostly chopped sideways.
I was hoping for a $2/share move to pocket $1K, but I'll settle for the $0.70/share move
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Sanrith Descartes
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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I've been playing a lot of NVDA lately but another one that I've been envious of has been ARM. I need to start figuring out the technicals on it this week so I can play it alongside NVDA. Look at this price movement since the last earnings call. Especially on a day to day level, there are very large moves up and down where you can play it in either direction.
Sanrith Descartes
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We gonna get 3 straight +6% days for TSLA?
edit: It just blew thru its long-term overhead resistance level. if it can hold this into the close there is nothing but air above it.
edit: It just blew thru its long-term overhead resistance level. if it can hold this into the close there is nothing but air above it.
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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There goes my 2 dollar move. Should have trusted myself to keep playing the support level
Tmac
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We've talked about rules extensively here, but I don't think anyone's ever posted theirs or spelled out what their rules even are.
Thanks for this! Gonna work on mine right now.
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