Blazin
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Blazin
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Got to love that dip bar right before the move that would take out just about every day trade stop. The safer flip to me is to buy the higher 122.60 break out
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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I also have a set of rules that I internalized so hard that it was kinda stupid to write them down. There have been a couple moments for me in past year where I had a "A-ha / Eureka" type of moment that significantly changed my approach.
The first one was the unwritten rule, which is you're not trading stocks, you're managing risk. This was suggested to me by someone else. Once I mentally reframed what we are doing as a risk management exercise vs. a retail merchant buy/sell exercise, it clicked something in my head and made me a lot more aggressive in setting stop orders, trailing orders and eliminating any semblance of risk even at the cost of gains. This has increased my profitability, but reduced the number of "homeruns" I had.
This NVDA play today was a good example. I thought there was a small chance where this stock could put me mildly underwater and I didnt want to be in that position with half day today, market closed tomorrow and Friday being a typically weak day for trading. I chose to take a $400 profit, rather than reduce my risk tolerance and try to hit that $2/share move. As of now, looks like NVDA ended up being a $4/share move this morning, I would have made $2,000 today. But reducing risk is extremely important to me, it makes me a much more consistent trader.
The other rule which clicked for me and made me more profitable is trusting DMAs. I was typically skeptical of DMAs because setting resistance/support levels seemed kind of arbitrary but someone else pointed out something very important to me. It doesnt matter if you think theyre bullshit or not. A lot of other people including institutional traders use them as guidelines which turns them into self-fulfilling prophecies most of the time. Once I realized that I started studying DMAs a lot harder and started to trade a lot more off support and resistance lines which also increased my profitability noticeably.
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Maybe this will help, but I tend to avoid buying NVDA in the 124-126 range right now since more often than not in recent 5-7 trading days it falls back to the 121 support line. Right now if I am playing NVDA its going long off 121-122 or going short from 127ish (though that hasnt happened in a while).
I still think its going to hit 150 by end of summer, but I think its going to spend another few days in low to mid 120s. I would wait right now for it to come back to 121. Good chance this will happen on Friday when the volume will be weaker due to long holiday weekend
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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The_Black_Log Foler
Stock Pals Senior VP | Pantheon Pals VP Recruiting
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Tmac
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This is a long term play, but I'm wondering now if I should take profits in the accounts up over 40%.
Blazin
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Remember when I bought SBUX dip without waiting for a bullish momentum change? Pepperidge farm remembers. I'm glad it was just 100 shares but annoys me the lack of discipline.
It's been 11 trading days since I sold the 1000 SPY shares we closed today above my sale price. Market has remained incredibly resilient. We have corrected some of the overbought position with time but not notably. Breadth hasn't improved if anything it has weakened further. Despite that if the market shows it wants higher I'll bite the bullet and re enter. Right now it looks like next Friday is likely to be a possible take some action/decision day for me.
It's been 11 trading days since I sold the 1000 SPY shares we closed today above my sale price. Market has remained incredibly resilient. We have corrected some of the overbought position with time but not notably. Breadth hasn't improved if anything it has weakened further. Despite that if the market shows it wants higher I'll bite the bullet and re enter. Right now it looks like next Friday is likely to be a possible take some action/decision day for me.
Sanrith Descartes
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I am with you 100%
I am looking at my position and thinking I could skim some profit off and it would be the smart thing. The other hand is when I redesigned my portfolio in the beginning of the year, I also adjusted my investing philosophy which is to just hold the holdings I want long term and not get fancy skimming and re-entering.
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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There's gotta be some pullback over the next few days/weeks. This just looks unsustainable, but thats probably my risk management tendencies kicking in that cheated me out of ~4K today
Even if you dont take profits, there are probably other people thinking the same thing, who will take profits and drive the price down. I'd take some now (honestly I would take it all, wait for a pullback and then see if I still want to get into it).
Moglyzoke Moogleman
once told me that if its worth taking a screenshot, its worth taking at least some profit off the table.
Tmac
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Any rules to reevaluate at 30%+ profit?
The challenge for me, is if I take TSLA profit, where tf do I put that money?
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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You can always put it back into TSLA after the price pulls back from everyone else taking profits. Its up 30% in 1 week. That's astronomical for a stock that isnt some penny stock.
Lots of people aren't going to risk their 30% to make an additional few percentage points.
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Palum
what Suineg set it to
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Maybe this will get my mom off her ass to build a new home. I want to say they have something like 10,000 shares of TSLA? Maybe it was less, not sure.
They've been putting it off because it fell so much.
Sanrith Descartes
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Indeed. This is always one of the problems.. where to put the profits back to work.
I decided I'm riding the Elon pony and not skimming anything off. For now. My concern is one of portfolio weight. My TSLA stake has ballooned to the size of my AAPL, MSFT and WMT positions which is higher than I intended. It keeps running over the summer and gets near $300 a trim might be mandatory for me.
Edit: forgot to answer the other question.i don't have rules on when to skim, I just look at what the market is giving me. The charts say TSLA has nothing but air overhead. It's resistance is gone. This bitch can run hard right now unimpeded.
Zog
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Until we get rate cuts, Iwm is going to be a money pit. I see a big rotation out of tech into high debt companies that are extremely beaten down, the only place to really put your money has been in tech, specifically semiconductors for a very long time. Eventually you will have competition for nvda, amd maybe one day will do something besides be a sympathy play.
I really see when we finally get a rate cut a sell the fact event going on. The reality is and it's crazy to think, higher rates and inflation are signs of a good economy, when we do get cuts it'll be proof of a receding economy that needs intervention.
That is if you believe in the numbers put out, danielle booth has been calling a recession since q3 of 23, with hard data to back that up due to the layoffs that have been accelerating since.
I really see when we finally get a rate cut a sell the fact event going on. The reality is and it's crazy to think, higher rates and inflation are signs of a good economy, when we do get cuts it'll be proof of a receding economy that needs intervention.
That is if you believe in the numbers put out, danielle booth has been calling a recession since q3 of 23, with hard data to back that up due to the layoffs that have been accelerating since.
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