Investing General Discussion

The_Black_Log Foler

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Cost basis is how capital gains are calculated--it's the official price you bought the stock at. You only pay taxes on the sale price (or reduce ordinary income by the losses) above and beyond the cost basis--the capital gains. I buy a share for $100, I sell it for $120, I am only paying taxes on 120 - 100 = $20 of capital gains.

Average cost = when you sell a share, you take the total $ invested in ALL shares and divide by # of ALL shares. That works out to the average stock price at the time you purchased. It's an option only available to mutual funds. Once you use this method (sell a share under it), I believe it is permanent for all shares purchased prior to the sale date.​
Actual cost = when you sell a share, you take the real cost of that actual share you bought based on its price at the time you purchased.​

For actual cost, you then also need to think about your disposal method. FIFO is first in first out, meaning you sell the earliest shares first. I know from your posts you're heavy in US market funds, which will generally go up over time. So FIFO will generally incur the largest tax liability when you sell (markets generally go up, so the first stocks you buy will generally have the lowest cost basis), which most people want to avoid.

If you are in Fidelity, they have a setting called Tax-Sensitive Short-Term: any time you sell, Fidelity will prioritize selling the largest net tax-impacting loss based on set short-term and long term tax rates (meaning you deduct those net losses up to usually ~$3k/year from your income), followed by the smallest to largest tax impact for net gains. For most people with all their eggs in one or a few baskets and not trying to set themselves up for complicated tax loss harvesting (selling paired loss + gain stocks to net out 0 capital gains for a year), this is probably the best way to sell, and probably what I'd recommend in general.

Rangoth is right that this isn't a 'now' problem, but I'd also argue that it's most important to understand for a long-term investor, because you'll be adding to your position over many years and then exiting in portions near the end of it all. There will be material tax differences between selling the early tax lots vs the later ones. If I sell 2005 SPY today I'm paying $550 - $150 = $400 * 15% = $50 per share in taxes, vs selling 2023 SPY and paying $550 - $450 = $100 * 15% = $15 per share. That's a difference of $35 per share that's no longer earning for me.

Conversely, if you're just opening and closing entire positions like a number of posters in this thread, every single tax method is the same and none of it really matters.
Thanks for the detailed explanation. So it sounds like I can change my cost basis from average to actual at any given time, I.e. I’m not stuck with the cost basis state that was at the time of purchase? I just need to switch it to whichever I want before I go to sell.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I actually had good results using FVRR as a product. Luckily I did not invest in them or any on the list.

 
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Mario Speedwagon

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I actually had good results using FVRR as a product. Luckily I did not invest in them or any on the list.


I feel like just looking at the descriptions I could have told you in 2021 that 90% of those are retarded businesses. African e-commerce? Plant based meat? Space tourism? Carbon negative plastic? I mean come on.
 
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Gravel

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Looking for some advice - for mutual funds should I be doing average cost basis or actual cost basis in my fidelity account? I didn’t notice this was a thing until recently. My disposal method is set to FIFO. For context I’m holding my investments long term with a minimal time horizon of 5 years. My ETFs are set to actual cost basis.
Just for a practical anecdote, I've been using actual.

But it doesn't really matter. Long term capital gains are taxed at 0% for a married filing jointly to about $100k of earned income. And LTGC don't count as regular earned income. It means I have to use the qualified dividends worksheet every year for filing, but in the end it's basically meaningless. As long as they're long term and not short term, the cost basis hasn't mattered one bit.

In the event you're pulling more than the 0% capital gains amount per year, keep in mind also that it's an "every dollar after" scenario and not on the full amount. The other thing to keep in mind is that some states tax capital gains. Part of the reason we chose Florida for retirement.
 
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TJT

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Probably a good time to pick up some Crowdstrike stonk. People will forget about this and price will rebound.
 
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sliverstorm

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Thanks for the detailed explanation. So it sounds like I can change my cost basis from average to actual at any given time, I.e. I’m not stuck with the cost basis state that was at the time of purchase? I just need to switch it to whichever I want before I go to sell.
Yep. It's really something you'll want to re-evaluate at the time you plan to start cashing out. OTOH, you might want to just switch to actual cost now so you don't fuck up in 10 years by selling one share and locking in everything prior. Once you're on actual cost you can change the order you sell at will.

To Gravel's point, if you're never going to draw an annual income over 90k married (probably higher by the time you retire) between ordinary income + capital gains during your sell periods, it won't matter. I did think that the 90k limit was total income, meaning earned is taxed first and then capital gains start counting on top of that total, but I've never sold, so no experience.

For my part, I'm expecting to hit a point in about 30 years where I eventually want off the pure market ride and to start building a faux pension by rebalancing towards fixed income. If life works out, maybe I won't care about the tax savings while I do that, but that's a good problem to ponder when I have it.

For now, I work and pray for liquidity crises.
 

Mist

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Its very early yet , no real damage done. QQQ putting up no fight at the 20d is not a good sign. Markets move level to level, I am convinced we have behavior change. The rotation trade was just the catalyst that snapped the market out of the melt up. I don't know what your timeframe is, Buying the market anytime the 200d is going up and price is above and the moving averages are stacked in order is a good trade LONG term. If you mean you want to try to bottom fish a move and swing a trade over a few weeks/month then I'd say wait more.

I'm out IJS sold at $107.18 so I'm sitting on a shit ton of cash so going to be watching things closely for some opportunities but as mentioned this morning I'm in a rather risk adverse footing at the moment.
Goddamn you nailed the top lol.
 
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Mist

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Probably a good time to pick up some Crowdstrike stonk. People will forget about this and price will rebound.
Their salespeople will be eating crow for months and other vendors will have infinite memes to bury them with. Crowdstrike was already known for overpromising.

But they could bounce back just because cybersecurity spend is likely to grow in general.
 

fris

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They probably have some fines or reimbursements in the horizon. I wouldn't buy until that gets messaged and cause another dip
 
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Haus

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Probably a good time to pick up some Crowdstrike stonk. People will forget about this and price will rebound.

Their salespeople will be eating crow for months and other vendors will have infinite memes to bury them with. Crowdstrike was already known for overpromising.

But they could bounce back just because cybersecurity spend is likely to grow in general.




My theory... (full disclosure, I work in sales in cybersecurity, but not for Crowdstrike).

They run one month offset, meaning that July is the end of their Fiscal Q2. It is very common practice in cybersecurity companies to pile a lot of deals in the last week of the quarter (and even moreso last week of the year) by offering additional discount to "pull deals forward" and buff up the quarters numbers to meet street earnings estimates.

This happened at the worst possible time of the quarter for them (only thing worse would be mid January at their end of fiscal year). It will probably cause a good amount of their end of quarter earnings to either slip into next quarter as customers step back to re-evaluate, or possibly even cost them deals all together. This means if I had to place a wager I'd say they're going to have a double miss in Q2 (rev and earnings). They will announce this at their quarterly earnings report somewhere around end of August. As such, I suspect some punishment now, then a plateau/valley through most of August, then another round of pain and punishment for missing their earnings.

If you believe they will bounce back, that would be your entry point.
If you believe this was their "RSA moment", then you've already sold your stock.

There may be litigation and fines, but those won't hit for quite a while... Litigation could be the wild card because some VERY large organizations had a VERY bad day today because of them.
 
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ToeMissile

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My theory... (full disclosure, I work in sales in cybersecurity, but not for Crowdstrike).

They run one month offset, meaning that July is the end of their Fiscal Q2. It is very common practice in cybersecurity companies to pile a lot of deals in the last week of the quarter (and even moreso last week of the year) by offering additional discount to "pull deals forward" and buff up the quarters numbers to meet street earnings estimates.

This happened at the worst possible time of the quarter for them (only thing worse would be mid January at their end of fiscal year). It will probably cause a good amount of their end of quarter earnings to either slip into next quarter as customers step back to re-evaluate, or possibly even cost them deals all together. This means if I had to place a wager I'd say they're going to have a double miss in Q2 (rev and earnings). They will announce this at their quarterly earnings report somewhere around end of August. As such, I suspect some punishment now, then a plateau/valley through most of August, then another round of pain and punishment for missing their earnings.

If you believe they will bounce back, that would be your entry point.
If you believe this was their "RSA moment", then you've already sold your stock.

There may be litigation and fines, but those won't hit for quite a while... Litigation could be the wild card because some VERY large organizations had a VERY bad day today because of them.
Makes a lot of sense. I worked pretty closely with sales for a few years when I was at Xerox, very familiar with the end of quarter push.
 

Seananigans

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The "hack" of pulling things forward for better metrics now really frustrates me.
 
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Haus

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The "hack" of pulling things forward for better metrics now really frustrates me.
It actually ends up balancing out..... You pull something forward to make Q2 look better, that means Q3 just took a hit... So then you need to pull Q4 stuff to fill Q3 for things you pulled into Q2.. it's kinda silly, but it's the way of things.

OTOH, I have been in situations where my company had a surprisingly good start to one quarter and we got the directive not to rush end of quarter deals that we'd be fine and they'd bolster the next quarter. Although these situations are rare.
 

Seananigans

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It actually ends up balancing out..... You pull something forward to make Q2 look better, that means Q3 just took a hit... So then you need to pull Q4 stuff to fill Q3 for things you pulled into Q2.. it's kinda silly, but it's the way of things.

OTOH, I have been in situations where my company had a surprisingly good start to one quarter and we got the directive not to rush end of quarter deals that we'd be fine and they'd bolster the next quarter. Although these situations are rare.

No, I don't think I would call that balancing out. I'm not sure how you could write that then continue the paragraph to spell out exactly why it is not balanced.

It's the exact same mechanic that happens with debt. You're pulling results forward. It feeds on human emotion and opens too many doors for manipulation by malicious actors. It becomes a house of cards because none of your metrics are true anymore. I argue it is completely unnecessary and should not exist (debt).

This pull forward effect will always exist to some extent because humans are humans, I just recognize the same pattern in it that I recognize in the concept of debt, thus it rustles the fuck out of me that so many people accept it as good or at least ok.
 

Haus

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No, I don't think I would call that balancing out. I'm not sure how you could write that then continue the paragraph to spell out exactly why it is not balanced.

It's the exact same mechanic that happens with debt. You're pulling results forward. It feeds on human emotion and opens too many doors for manipulation by malicious actors. It becomes a house of cards because none of your metrics are true anymore. I argue it is completely unnecessary and should not exist (debt).

This pull forward effect will always exist to some extent because humans are humans, I just recognize the same pattern in it that I recognize in the concept of debt, thus it rustles the fuck out of me that so many people accept it as good or at least ok.
I didn't even go really into how it balances in the end...

Sales, in many cases, is a life of feast and famine. In my area of sales and with the customers I have it's often 2-3 quarters of "survive" and then one quarter of "blow it out and all hail accelerators!" Companies either have to hope 1/4 of their salesforce is in "blow out" mode on each quarter, or if not pull enough forward to level out your revenue stream because the thing wall street likes the least is "lumpy revenue streams". So, you go most quarters hoping that it balances out, maybe pulling a little forward, and that rolls until you have an overachieving quarter and can defer booking revenue. In the end the company makes exactly the same amount of money, it's all in presenting it to wall street in a way that won't get your stock price pummeled.

Or to quote the great Booker T Washington (5 time WWE world champion!) "Don't hate the player... hate the game"
 

Seananigans

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I didn't even go really into how it balances in the end...

Sales, in many cases, is a life of feast and famine. In my area of sales and with the customers I have it's often 2-3 quarters of "survive" and then one quarter of "blow it out and all hail accelerators!" Companies either have to hope 1/4 of their salesforce is in "blow out" mode on each quarter, or if not pull enough forward to level out your revenue stream because the thing wall street likes the least is "lumpy revenue streams". So, you go most quarters hoping that it balances out, maybe pulling a little forward, and that rolls until you have an overachieving quarter and can defer booking revenue. In the end the company makes exactly the same amount of money, it's all in presenting it to wall street in a way that won't get your stock price pummeled.

Or to quote the great Booker T Washington (5 time WWE world champion!) "Don't hate the player... hate the game"

Yes... I'm hating the game.
 

Loser Araysar

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Probably a good time to pick up some Crowdstrike stonk. People will forget about this and price will rebound.

Bro.... They literally blew up hundreds of millions of man hours of productivity in 24 hours and caused untold losses to thousands of companies.

Aside from the stonk taking a hit, I'm going to guess they're going to be paying damages for YEARS in to airlines, banks, etc. which will be compounding bad press and dragging down their profits. Do they have any direct competitors who can replace them at all these companies? I don't know, but if they do, that's lost revenue on top of lost profit.

I'd be very careful buying this.

As a personal anecdote my mom sent me a pic today. She was flying out of O'Hare airport on a United flight and the screen at her gate was still BSOD 2 days later.

Personally I think their brand and reputation is probably permanently poisoned. This was a huge fuck up.
 
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TomServo

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Bro.... They literally blew up hundreds of millions of man hours of productivity in 24 hours and caused untold losses to thousands of companies.

Aside from the stonk taking a hit, I'm going to guess they're going to be paying damages for YEARS in to airlines, banks, etc. which will be compounding bad press and dragging down their profits. Do they have any direct competitors who can replace them at all these airlines? I don't know, but if they do, that's lost revenue on top of lost profit

I'd be very careful buying this.

As a personal anecdote my mom sent me a pic today. She was flying out of O'Hare airport on a United flight and the screen at her gate was still BSOD 2 days later
My co workers daughters hospital was half bricked by this shit.

We are dropping crowds trike while we evaluate defender as a fallback possible replacement.

Our pen testers find defender far more difficult to work around than crowdstrike
 
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