Investing General Discussion

Big Phoenix

Big Phoenix

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Sanrith Descartes said:
NASDAQ futures down another 2.5% and ES futures down almost 1.75%

Unemployment number came in hot. About those rate cuts...

Freaking Out GIF by Travis
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And just like that,bad news was bad news again.
 
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Foler

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My entire QQQM position is down 3%. Literally gone before my eyes. Was 9% at one point. I know I’m a long term hodler but man this is not fun to watch
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
It's bizarre that this keeps impacting the market when everyone knows that they'll revise this number down again in 3 months and it'll come in below expectations.

Not only that, but even this bullshit number is misleading since it's people working multiple jobs just trying to survive inflation.

If anything, they should take this as a sign we need a rate cut.
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"the market" is algos at this point. They just react to the programming. You think they are programming the algos to assume the gubmint is putting out bullshit numbers?
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Araysar said:
The number never gets revised in a "good" direction, so when it gets revised in a few months, the unemployment rate will be even more above expectations, not below
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Right, but good economic numbers mean they need to keep interest rates high to crush the economy. That's the goal.

If the economy is doing poorly, they've done their job and can let up.

So when they revise the numbers to be worse in 3 months, that should be a sign that the Fed has squashed the economy with the rate hikes. Everyone knows this and yet we still buy into the numbers. But I guess Sanrith makes a good point that the algos don't care because they don't have the ability to think.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
the algos don't care because they don't have the ability to think.
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This is part of my investing philosophy (be it right or wrong). Algos and HFTs drive first moves. They can only do so based on programming. I believe that we see these overly large first moves on news and then there is a segment of humans who follow suit. After a bit of time the humans running the algo/hft traders look at things and adjust. Its honestly why trading the first and last 30 minutes of the trading day is such a gamble.

Or I'm totally wrong.
 
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Creslin

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You can kind of observe it with the payroll when it’s a beat. The algos see the beat at 8:30 and the market pumps, but at 9 the humans finish their lattes and look at the report and it’s garbage with only part time work increases and mass full time layoffs and by 9:45 the rally is reversing and the day is going negative.
 
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Tmac

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I'm great at throwing money into the stock market. I'm terrible at "making" money. It's annoying.

I don't mind down markets bc I feel like I just continue to DCA and add money and when it comes back up I'll have made money. My problem is DCA'ing when the market's hot and not knowing what to do with the money and then weeks later I've lost 30% of my last six months of investing.

I've even started to scalp profits at times, but I'm seriously missing the boat compared to some folks here.
 
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Tmac said:
I'm great at throwing money into the stock market. I'm terrible at "making" money. It's annoying.

I don't mind down markets bc I feel like I just continue to DCA and add money and when it comes back up I'll have made money. My problem is DCA'ing when the market's hot and not knowing what to do with the money and then weeks later I've lost 30% of my last six months of investing.

I've even started to scalp profits at times, but I'm seriously missing the boat compared to some folks here.
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Everyone is different. Blazin Blazin and Jysin Jysin seem to be adept at buying in upswings. Like you, I tend to suck at it. Because of this I tend to just avoid it and wait for downswings to move in cash. When cash positions are paying 5%, its takes some of the sting out of being patient. Never forget its a marathon and not a sprint.
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Mist said:
Buying into corrections is how you get rich.
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For sure. Unfortunately for me, I'm not in the accumulation phase anymore so I don't have anything to throw at the market.

I really ate a shit sandwich missing the stock sale in 2022, where I got a double whammy with having retired at the top in 2021, eating immediate losses. I was smart enough to hedge against it a bit by having about a year of cash on hand so we didn't have to sell at the bottom.

This is a "sale," but still consider we're up like 12-13% on the year. So it's not like you're getting a massive deal here.
 
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