Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
Sanrith Descartes
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Sounds like it's just reinforcing the concept that every time you butt up against a support on the way down, or resistance point on the way up, but then recover/retrace... it increases the chances that the next time you go down against the support, or up against the resistance, you'll break through it for better or worse. In this case it looks like 8 was the magical number of bounces before we broke a hole in the floor.
Blazin
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That's exactly correct, different ways of thinking about it. Could imagine support is a line of soldiers and each time the line is attacked some men die, that defensive line being repeatedly tested is a very bad thing as more and more men die. On resistance its buyers attacking at support its the sellers.
TLT about to go flat on the day. Looking more and more like we struck a bottom this morning just before the open. WIll be some money to be made for a bit and will have to watch how that rally fairs. Could be pretty intense. QQQ could head all the way up to high 460s and then struggle again. I tend to like these kind of markets because they reward being more involved versus the boring ass melt ups that I hate. My game development prefers the melt up though.
Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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We know from last time Iran gives over 48 hours of warning before it can do everything.
Twitter found out about the Iran launch days ahead of time just from the spike in pizza delivery orders in DC.
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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All shitposting and memes aside, thank you for what you do here. There is no need for you to do it, and it's pretty awesome that you do.
If you feel like waxing philosophic about what trends / names look attractive to you going forward in this environment, given the significant moves we saw today, then it would be even more amazing. If not, then no stress. I put the majority of my portfolio to work today, but still have $100K+ to go.
Stepping away from the screen for a little bit to touch some grass. This morning was intense lol.
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Blazin
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Thanks for the kind words, as always I just want to be clear about how I do things and if someone gets some value from that then I'm pretty happy. I do think this may be my last year doing it, maybe not entirely but I want to focus on development and it's not much use to me helping here unless it's in real time anyone can blow smoke after the fact.
So the following tested their 200d this morning and recaptured:
QQQ
HYG
IWM
BTC(Just barely hanging on, it fell the deepest below)
SPY did not test its 200d I really wish it did, would be another notch towards comfort here. There is enough rotation to defensives that have it performing better. It would have been nice but it's not a show stopper for me that it didn't.
When moves like this fail it tends to be a slow bleed from around now midday or just after lunch into the close, where none of it looks particularly bad it just bleeds its way back down.
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Sanrith Descartes
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If you don't mind me asking, were you buys into QQQ and AMZN small test the water purchases or something more substantial?
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Blazin
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About quarter mil so I guess something in-between. I want to see how this afternoon behaves might do another $200
200 shares of amzn so nothing much there but as you guys know by now I don't do much with single names. I always feel more confident/comfortable trading index. I rarely own more than $60k of a single stock.
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Kithani
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Sanrith Descartes
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Thanks.
I have acted contrary to my normal pattern and stood pat this morning. Part because I was on my phone and part because as you mentioned earlier I want to see what the afternoon brings us. I am also keeping an eye on the Mideast and Ireland this afternoon.
Zog
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So what happened? 200d moving average on the daily chart for QQQ was
We bottomed premarket at 420 even, pushed above the 200d at the open, retested and bounced on the ism read.
As long as we remain over the 200D we are bullish.
We still have the wet noodle of Iran's imminent attack on Israel that might be another retest of the 480s but the last time this happened it did absolutely nothing to curb the upward trend because Israel's iron dome shot down almost every rocket they shot.
You might get another shot at the lows but it might already be priced in by their ridiculous forewarning of "not escalating." Regardless it would be a definite buy imo.
Ism reading pushed up yields a tiny bit but still leaning bullish for stocks, risk reward is definitely in stocks favor at these levels with falling yields.
We bottomed premarket at 420 even, pushed above the 200d at the open, retested and bounced on the ism read.
As long as we remain over the 200D we are bullish.
We still have the wet noodle of Iran's imminent attack on Israel that might be another retest of the 480s but the last time this happened it did absolutely nothing to curb the upward trend because Israel's iron dome shot down almost every rocket they shot.
You might get another shot at the lows but it might already be priced in by their ridiculous forewarning of "not escalating." Regardless it would be a definite buy imo.
Ism reading pushed up yields a tiny bit but still leaning bullish for stocks, risk reward is definitely in stocks favor at these levels with falling yields.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Arden
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Gravel
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Damn right wing extremists trying to claim Ireland should be home to Irish people.
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