Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
Moglyzoke Moogleman
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Hey guys I really did a big goof this time. Bought the top here and bagheld. Suggestions?
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Sanrith Descartes
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
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This did not actually happen. I am just enjoying how much of a gigantic piece of shit that thing is.Pay someone here to invest for you.
Not enjoying. I actually do feel for people caught in that because it's fucking insane.
Tmac
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Posting loss porn that isn’t your own, when you have plenty of your own, is a weird shtick.
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
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I'm not bragging? I genuinely feel bad. What loss porn btw? Not sure what posts you're talking about.Posting loss porn that isn’t your own, when you have plenty of your own, is a weird shtick.
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Burnem Wizfyre
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Loss porn was when your father found out you were gay and his genes would be removed from the dna pool.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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The one that got away.
As I was searching for new acquisitions, I came across a stock I really liked back a ways but missed my buy order by a few pennies and then it never gave me a chance to buy back in. I decided to track it back to Covid Black Monday and see how it compared to some popular bigs. Investors can get caught up in the Tech chase but other sectors can hold real gems that likely no one has ever heard of. The company I am taking about is Linde (LIN). It is the largest company in the materials sector and it specializes in gases. It currently earns about $14 a share. Since Covid Black Monday it has equaled/outperformed (in share price appreciation) MSFT, GOOGL JPM and BRKB. Only AAPL and META have done better in terms of stock price gains. LIN has returned about 170% in stock price gains in about 4.5 years.
As I was searching for new acquisitions, I came across a stock I really liked back a ways but missed my buy order by a few pennies and then it never gave me a chance to buy back in. I decided to track it back to Covid Black Monday and see how it compared to some popular bigs. Investors can get caught up in the Tech chase but other sectors can hold real gems that likely no one has ever heard of. The company I am taking about is Linde (LIN). It is the largest company in the materials sector and it specializes in gases. It currently earns about $14 a share. Since Covid Black Monday it has equaled/outperformed (in share price appreciation) MSFT, GOOGL JPM and BRKB. Only AAPL and META have done better in terms of stock price gains. LIN has returned about 170% in stock price gains in about 4.5 years.
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My initial reaction to your question was something I’d heard somewhere, that a secular bear will match the previous secular bull peak. If you look at weekly intervals on the SPX last time the 50week was below the 200 week was the GFC, which would put us at 1500 for a pre-GFC peak, or a ~73% decline. Would be absolutely insane. Inflation adjusted would be something like 2300, or a 58% decline which would be on the same level as the GFC. Would only happen during a WW3 or total dollar abandonment scenario. Kind of interesting food for thought though I’m not nearly that bearish. 4700 would be if you consider the 2021 peak to be the last cycle peak, but I’d probably say the pre-covid peak of 3400 is the most likely base if we had a near term very hard landing.
Thanks for bringing it up, I hadn’t actually looked at what the numbers of those events would be if we hit them. I just generally walk around mentally prepared for a 50% drop, just for my own expectations management.
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Blazin
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That simply isn't true in fact it's not even close to being true, no secular bear has ever retraced to the previous secular bull peak. Secular bull markets only give back their final move usually a few years.
It's good to understand the market can go down in a scary manner but secular bull trends are decades long, if this secular bull ends anytime soon it will be the shortest of any in industrialized era. They last 20 years, because 20 years is how long it take a population bubble to move through peak household creation and peak earnings.
There is a strong probability that our next bear market will just be another cyclical bear in an ongoing uptrend.
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It's possible what you heard is that a secular bear gives back the previous cyclical bull which has previously happened 100% of the time.
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A great many things are just filtered and delayed population dynamics. The next 50 years is going to be new territory as global population growth stagnates and the Western world (probably) tightens immigration. Can we maintain economic growth with a flat population through tech-driven productivity? Who knows? Japan hasn't been doing a great job of it since their population peaked in 2001. China is expecting a 60% population contraction by 2100 thanks to their idiotic one-child policies. They're completely fucked in the long term.
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Blazin
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It's quite concerning, markets are just fancy layers on top of population growth and productivity gains. I'm only not full on doom and gloom because it's not clear what roll autonomy will be play in offsetting the "you're all completely fucked" set up we have in front of us. The US is set up well because we have immigration, can we stay united as a people and culture? well that's a topic for another thread, but purley from a pop outlook we are head and shoulders above the other major economies moving forward. China is so fucked, going back and laughing at the "china is gonna pass us" posts are going to be good for a chuckle for years to come.
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Yeah. I read a superficially compelling analysis by Peter Zeihan, who claims that we're in as good a position as anyone is. We have great geography and natural resources, access to stable neighbors, our millennial generation is much larger in proportion than peer nations (their Boomer generations had fewer kids), and for the moment we're still the primary target for the immigration of elites. Interestingly, he thought France was going to be the dominant player in Europe, though they might end up a Muslim theocracy. Germany, UK, China, Russia all fucked as a matter of inevitable demographics. India takes over Asia. Significant political, economic, and possible military instability as the Russian and Chinese influence spheres collapse. Lots of regional displacement and economic refugees.
I'm a techno-optimist at heart, hopefully we figure out AI for real in the next 30 years.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I wonder how much programmed selling occurs when a stock hits a 52-high. So often I see stuff hit 52-high and then immediately fall back. It seems pretty rare for it to just blast through and keep going.
