Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
Blazin
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Sanrith Descartes
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Big Phoenix
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Rangoth
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every single earnings play Ive watched recently had been about a 15% move over 2-3 days. Always over marginal news. It is absolutely fucking nuts. I’m not quite motivated enough but part of me wants to run some back test on the average move 1 day and 1 week after earnings for all tickers over the last 50 years. Is it worse recently or is this always been the case? Part of me think it’s exacerbated by the recent increase in retail but I guess only a back test would prove/disprove that.
sometimes I’m tempted to straddle but knowing my luck I pick the one stock that moves 1% and lose it all. I’m not quite at that level yet. I suppose if I picked 10 upcoming earnings and did 5k on each it would be manageable and I’d only need to win 2-3 out of those 10 to come out ahead based on recent experience. I’ll do more research and update here…..maybe I’ll scale it down to 1k a piece or something just as an experiment
sometimes I’m tempted to straddle but knowing my luck I pick the one stock that moves 1% and lose it all. I’m not quite at that level yet. I suppose if I picked 10 upcoming earnings and did 5k on each it would be manageable and I’d only need to win 2-3 out of those 10 to come out ahead based on recent experience. I’ll do more research and update here…..maybe I’ll scale it down to 1k a piece or something just as an experiment
Jysin
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Blazin
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So far, however NFP seems to fade it's first move. I haven't dug into the actual history of that so my perception could be wrong but definitely seems that way.So we should moon, right?
It's a report that the more you look at it the worse it starts looking. Full time employment down more significantly just being covered up with PT. When this number is revised lower then the whole "We negated the Sahm rule" goes out the window.
Sanrith Descartes
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And the miss will be even greater when they revise it lower next month. The constant revisions lower are just a meme at this point.
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Blazin
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I don't mind revisions they have always been part of the process, what everyone is seeing is that it's all the same direction . Its just hard to believe the BLS doesn't have some Dwight Schrute dork who pitches a fit if the higher ups muck with the data. This is years now of downward revisions.
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Sanrith Descartes
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How do we not yet have a whistleblower from the BLS telling us they aren't revising lower that they are knowingly inflating the numbers up front.
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So another good headline but devils in the details report? So rally until 10 am when the humans wake up and set the algos to sell
Blazin
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this is a "yay we get 50" thinking right now. I don't see how 50 is good news, the markets worst enemy is rapid rate cuts. It should be noted that the market isn't pricing in MORE rate cuts just front ending and sticking with 100 by YE
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I am not even sure we do get 50 in September. TLT is actually down this morning so I would read that as rate cut expectations fell not rose.
We are in a no mans land of the data not being bad enough to trigger rapid cuts but not good enough to cause a real sustained rally. The risk seems to be that the data is actually pretty bad but faked enough to look ok if not great and the fed should and would be cutting if BLS didn't have their finger on the scale.
Blazin
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You might want to reconsider your belief that 20 yr bonds movements are tied to Fed funds rate expectations. I'm curious how you make this connection.
Most healthcare is used on the elderly. People who eat dollar general food are very unlikely to become elderly so it should all work out.
Goog blowing through its 200 dma. Time to catch that falling knife?