Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Tell that to my hyperactive 4 year old. He has had no less than 3 ambulance rides in his little life.
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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Healthcare is worthless anyway if no doctors are seeing new patients.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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same, i don't see a high probability trade right now.
My gut , intuition, whatever is telling me to be cautious. As always its a challenge when to know to listen to that versus ignore and slam the buy button.
They made a feeble attempt towards "value" this morning and it just fell on it's face with nothing behind it.
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I am sitting on a 700k position in short term treasuries if that says anything about my outlook.
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Sanrith Descartes
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You have been in the UK too long friendo. The part-timers get their healthcare from the Obamacare exchange and then have the gubmint subsidize the cost via the premium tax credit.
Jysin
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We are actively looking at property in FL for the big move back home. Healthcare flat out pisses me off. We both self-employ for the bulk of our funds, so eating like $25k/yr for a healthy family of 3 is absurd. No subsidies from ObamaCare or the FL kids plans due to our income levels being too high.
For comparison, the absolute top tier "Platinum" level private health plans in the UK cost us about $4,300/yr for the 3 of us.
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Blazin
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yeah I'm still all cash so you can tell how super bullish I am
The fact that we failed to set a new high has really caught my attention. Had we set the high even by a penny, I'd say it would then dip you would buy that dip and we would rally pushing strongly past.
Price action now told us something, they couldn't get that high, so new scenarios have to be considered as most probable.
..edit to clarify I still think I'd take a stab at SPY 536 but I would be more cautious with that trade than I would have otherwise. Myoriginal intention was that would be a hold on tight for $50+ /share gain now it may become give me $548 in a day or two hold and get the frick out.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Yeah I was gonna mention the 5x poverty level cap. You just need to higher a better accountant to "adjust" your MAGI numbers
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I will ask my broker to adjust those statements and let you know how it goes!Yeah I was gonna mention the 5x poverty level cap. You just need to higher a better accountant to "adjust" your MAGI numbers
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Jysin
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I just see trappy action (both ways). As you said, the high probability plays aren't there.yeah I'm still all cash so you can tell how super bullish I am
The fact that we failed to set a new high has really caught my attention. Had we set the high even by a penny, I'd say it would then dip you would buy that dip and we would rally pushing strongly past.
Price action now told us something, they couldn't get that high, so new scenarios have to be considered as most probable.
I seem to be finding myself on your trading path (from what you've disclosed). Far less daytrading these days, but catching huge volatility swings and letting them run a few days. I am far more of a swing trader this year.
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Blazin
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This is definitely what I have evolved to. Part of that is because I have other things I like to do with my time but it has also been very consistent for me just to wait for good set ups and take them heavy. As I've mentioned maybe a few dozen times, the danger is a boring ass melt up where nothing happens. THere is no alpha gaining events to play. That is the weakness but it's the strategy for me I think. Just needs to be coupled with when does your sitting and waiting mean sitting in the S&P and when does it mean cash. This summer people saw me now make that flip that my resting point is now cash where the previous period was S&P.
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I think you are correct. All signs point to downside risk. Ultra high pe almost across the board, tapering buybacks, employment picture worsening.yeah I'm still all cash so you can tell how super bullish I am
The fact that we failed to set a new high has really caught my attention. Had we set the high even by a penny, I'd say it would then dip you would buy that dip and we would rally pushing strongly past.
Price action now told us something, they couldn't get that high, so new scenarios have to be considered as most probable.
..edit to clarify I still think I'd take a stab at SPY 536 but I would be more cautious with that trade than I would have otherwise. Myoriginal intention was that would be a hold on tight for $50+ /share gain now it may become give me $548 in a day or two hold and get the frick out.
I am not yet convinced this is the first signs of recession so it could be that we reverse come October. I think the next major catalyst is October earnings though and if those beat the downbeat expectations offered in the q2 calls then we are off to the races again.
Sanrith Descartes
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
Not here
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I exercised discipline today. Lucky one off or the beginning of something great? Stay tuned, folks!
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Blazin
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Just remember IF there is a recession the market will fall well ahead of it and rally when it's at it's worst. So don't want to look at economic signs too much, the market is better predictor of the economy than any one of us. If it starts falling in the face of data that stll seems "okay" that is your signal that the market is sniffing out what is COMING not what is now. We are going to find a bottom here in the not to distant future that next rally legs fate is going to answer this question for everyone. It takes a giant shit and we are going to know an economic decline is coming. Just please keep an open mind for that it doesn't and that we rally again to 6000-6300 and that this cyclical bull has a little more gas in the tank and THEN the downturn we have spent 24 months thinking about finally hits us.
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Jysin
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Far easier to sit on the sidelines in treasuries as that has been an option. As soon as real cuts start to bite, and if we hit recession, it gets murkier unless you start playing bearish positions. I haven't had a red year since 2018 and don't plan to start anytime soon.
Ps. Markets starting to puke now.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sold 20% of my UNH position. Up nearly 40% since April and it's PE (backwards and forward) have gotten stretched. Also it's now gotten oversized in weighting. Still a core long-term hold, just doing some pruning.
Edit: forgot to add that I sold at $600. Almost top-ticked it.
Edit: forgot to add that I sold at $600. Almost top-ticked it.
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