Investing General Discussion

Contracts get protested all the time. That's pretty meaningless.

Gravel said:

Contracts get protested all the time. That's pretty meaningless.

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Basically every time if its over a few million bucks.

Blazin said:

Disclaimer: Super duper not picking on you

BUT...I'm willing to wager you think it's odd to cut with stocks near ATH, and you would be horribly wrong. The Fed has cut rates 20 times since 1980 with the market within 2% of the ATH. The market one year later after those 20 cuts near ATH? Up 100% of the time. Let's stop feeling things and maybe educate ourselves prior to taking our "lol" positions.

You are conflating cutting rates with a weakened economy and that would be true IF you were at neutral already. Moving off of a restrictive policy only needs the restrictive policy to no longer be needed to achieve objectives.

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No offense taken brother

It was mostly just a shitposting-during-Fed-day comment, but your points are valid. I do believe that 50 bps within 1% of ATHs is relatively rare, and will probably be the next talking point of the macro doomers, like Gayed et al.

I generally dislike J Pow, as I believe he oversaw one of the biggest Fed mistakes in history- continuing to purchases MBSs into late 2022. When he cites the housing supply shortage as the nature of housing inflation, I think that he is being disingenuous at best. I work in the industry, so I won't go on a rant here, but I do not think that he is properly graded on this subject.

Anyways, I'm pretty much max long SPLG (shout out to Sanrith Descartes for that one), so I didn't mean to come off as a doomer. I have a few Roth bucks in cash and PTON runners, and perhaps a bit of a come to Jesus moment approaching with my emergency fund, due to portfolio size. Will likely see how business goes over the next few months, and take it from there.

I was a bit of a twat over the past few years here, so I apologize for that. Mostly just shitposting to vent on a forum, while going through some tough stuff irl. I have learned a lot during that time, and I am committed to continuing my progression as a trader / investor. I appreciate the knowledge you drop, and I look forward to continuing to learn from you during Q4, before you fade off into bolivion. My only humble request is that you make your triumphant return to sound the alarm when the secular bear finally arrives

If I ever become President, I will nominate you for Fed Chair.

Hmm so if we retrace to get back into the spy 565.xx range is it a buy.
Edit damn dropping like a rock, practically got there by the time I hit post.

Foler said:

Well fellas I ain’t stopping you from buying!

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I'm just saying most high value gov't contracts are protested by default every time one is awarded. They pay so much for staff attorneys there's no reason not to do it to fuck with their competitor who just won and make them sit on capital or staff they were required to purchase for a year+ with no return.

It is going to be an interesting next few months.



JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he remains skeptical about a soft landing in the US following the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in more than four years — and said he wouldn’t “count my eggs” on that outcome.

“I am a little more skeptical than other people. I give it lower odds,” he said at The Atlantic Festival event in Washington on Friday. “I hope its true, but I’m also more skeptical that inflation is going to go away so easily, not because it hasn’t come down — it has — and it can come down more.”

The rate cut will have almost no effect on the presidential election, the CEO of the biggest US bank added, when asked if there would be an impact.

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point Wednesday in a policy shift aimed at engineering a so-called soft landing. Ahead of the decision, Dimon said that whether they lowered them by 25 or 50 basis points, it wouldn’t be “earth-shattering.”

The longtime CEO has been warning for over a year that inflation could be stickier than investors expect, citing drivers including deficit spending and the “remilitarization of the world.” He wrote in his annual shareholder letter in April that JPMorgan is prepared for interest rates ranging from 2% to 8% or more.

“I wouldn’t count my eggs,” on the soft-landing outcome, Dimon said. “We may have gone from a lower rate, lower inflation, to a slightly higher rate, higher inflation. Down the road, whatever it is, we’ll deal with it. Economists are used to dealing with that. It’s not a disaster.”