Investing General Discussion

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Sanrith Descartes

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Over a far enough time horizon, dumping the money in today is most likely not a "bad" idea. Twenty years from now it will probably look like a great investment. Twenty days from now, maybe not so much.
 
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Blazin

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Yes length of hold is what really matters, which is why just jump in statistically wins because it means more time in. None of this guaranteed, just the odds are in your favor. Certainly possible to put money to work at the wrong time and gain no benefit for years
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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My suggestion for most folks right now is to just walk away and enjoy the holidays. Come back in January. There just isn't shit to buy. Looking at the S&P 200, the stocks that "appear" to be on sale are in fact on sale for a reason. They suck. Sure you might get 5-10% in the next 12 months (including dividends) on JNJ/PEP/UPS etc, but then again maybe you are lucky to break even. Better to leave the cash uninvested in the core account and make 4% waiting. COP/XOM/CVX aren't really shitty, just victims of oil price. Could be +20% in 12 months or could be -20% in 12 months. Flip a coin. INTC? Lol.

Literally the only thing I see could be UNH. It caught a black swan and got drubbed. Functionally, it comes down to how much you think the CEO was the primary cause of the run up this year. If you think he was some wizard then avoid it. If you think he is just a placeholder, then it could see 20-25% upside in the next 3-6 months as it gets bought back to pre-assassination levels.
 

Palum

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My suggestion for most folks right now is to just walk away and enjoy the holidays. Come back in January. There just isn't shit to buy. Looking at the S&P 200, the stocks that "appear" to be on sale are in fact on sale for a reason. They suck. Sure you might get 5-10% in the next 12 months (including dividends) on JNJ/PEP/UPS etc, but then again maybe you are lucky to break even. Better to leave the cash uninvested in the core account and make 4% waiting. COP/XOM/CVX aren't really shitty, just victims of oil price. Could be +20% in 12 months or could be -20% in 12 months. Flip a coin. INTC? Lol.

Literally the only thing I see could be UNH. It caught a black swan and got drubbed. Functionally, it comes down to how much you think the CEO was the primary cause of the run up this year. If you think he was some wizard then avoid it. If you think he is just a placeholder, then it could see 20-25% upside in the next 3-6 months as it gets bought back to pre-assassination levels.
Sell a bit before you go, I need SPX to drop by about 100
 

tugofpeace

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Yes length of hold is what really matters, which is why just jump in statistically wins because it means more time in. None of this guaranteed, just the odds are in your favor. Certainly possible to put money to work at the wrong time and gain no benefit for years
Over a far enough time horizon, dumping the money in today is most likely not a "bad" idea. Twenty years from now it will probably look like a great investment. Twenty days from now, maybe not so much.

Yea, this is true. I might decide to put in a bit more. I was mistaken actually, I only want to drop $75k in, keep the rest for a rainy day.

I am thinking to do 80% SPY, 20% VXUS. What do you guys think about that? This is a topic that's been beaten to death but I like having the international exposure.

I thought SPY over VOO due to options liquidity but in reality it doesn't seem very smart to sell options on SPY in case you get assigned and have to realize the gains.. although you could just buy out the option before that happens.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Yea, this is true. I might decide to put in a bit more. I was mistaken actually, I only want to drop $75k in, keep the rest for a rainy day.

I am thinking to do 80% SPY, 20% VXUS. What do you guys think about that? This is a topic that's been beaten to death but I like having the international exposure.

I thought SPY over VOO due to options liquidity but in reality it doesn't seem very smart to sell options on SPY in case you get assigned and have to realize the gains.. although you could just buy out the option before that happens.
if its a pure long term hold them the vehicle doesn't matter as much, just go with the lowest net fee. Liquidity doesn't matter if you aren't trading it. SPY/IVV/VOO. Only advice I might give is splitting it between SPY/QQQ in some ratio.
 

Nabi

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My mother has 1.5mil in TSP invested in their S&P500 fund. About 700k in cash. She has been showing signs of dementia and I will soon get power of attorney. I just want to have the money grow steadily and make sure there is enough left to cover her medical care.

I have close to 0 knowledge of investing and have been just watching youtube videos and asking some friends. My mom's social security is more than enough to cover her expenses.
Saw a couple advisors and one recommended putting the 401k into a Pacific Life & Annuity plan and another advisor told me to put the cash into a money market account because we might consider moving in the future. Both seem way tooo conservative.

I'm thinking about just putting in 500k into SCHD and DRIP and she can add another 30k every year from her 401k minimum distribution, and buy BitCoin with the rest. I know I can bigger returns on other ETF and stocks. I think I chose pretty conservative numbers, and I think these results are good. I also like the idea of the dividends helping with the future med bills, and I can live off the dividends since I worked in Korea for the past 15 years and haven't paid much into social security here. I have a small personal portfolio where I have tsla, pltr, and nvda, so I don't feel like I missed out too much if they hit big again in the future. What will be the big risk, if any?
SCHD.jpg
 

Gravel

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Yea, this is true. I might decide to put in a bit more. I was mistaken actually, I only want to drop $75k in, keep the rest for a rainy day.

I am thinking to do 80% SPY, 20% VXUS. What do you guys think about that? This is a topic that's been beaten to death but I like having the international exposure.

I thought SPY over VOO due to options liquidity but in reality it doesn't seem very smart to sell options on SPY in case you get assigned and have to realize the gains.. although you could just buy out the option before that happens.
The best time to invest was yesterday. 2nd best is today.

If you're uncomfortable with it, pick a timeframe (3 months, 6 months, a year?) and dollar cost average it in.
 

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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My mother has 1.5mil in TSP invested in their S&P500 fund. About 700k in cash. She has been showing signs of dementia and I will soon get power of attorney. I just want to have the money grow steadily and make sure there is enough left to cover her medical care.

I have close to 0 knowledge of investing and have been just watching youtube videos and asking some friends. My mom's social security is more than enough to cover her expenses.
Saw a couple advisors and one recommended putting the 401k into a Pacific Life & Annuity plan and another advisor told me to put the cash into a money market account because we might consider moving in the future. Both seem way tooo conservative.

I'm thinking about just putting in 500k into SCHD and DRIP and she can add another 30k every year from her 401k minimum distribution, and buy BitCoin with the rest. I know I can bigger returns on other ETF and stocks. I think I chose pretty conservative numbers, and I think these results are good. I also like the idea of the dividends helping with the future med bills, and I can live off the dividends since I worked in Korea for the past 15 years and haven't paid much into social security here. I have a small personal portfolio where I have tsla, pltr, and nvda, so I don't feel like I missed out too much if they hit big again in the future. What will be the big risk, if any?
View attachment 565350
How long do you expect her to live? Or what do you expect future medical/care expenses to look like? I'd say that's the driver behind what investment vehicle you use.

If she's going to need a $10k a month full care home soon, it may not be worthwhile investing in equities at all (unless your mom has expressed wishes to leave an inheritance or endowment/trust with what's left).

Or, just leave everything as is, and use the cash for any issues that come up. It'd take a while to burn through $700k. Put it into CD's or something.
 
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Borzak

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The only thing I can about Fidelity I didn't like and it's nothing major, was when I moved a considerable amount into the account to put short term until I could so something else they would call quite often about their asset management and my retirement plans for the future. They stopped after I did something else with the money but it got old and I was already retired.
 

Blazin

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they are going to try to recapture the 50d before the close but slicing through the 20d and 50d in one bar is never a good look.

I'm cheering it on, die you stupid euphoria market
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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they are going to try to recapture the 50d before the close but slicing through the 20d and 50d in one bar is never a good look.

I'm cheering it on, die you stupid euphoria market
Elon lost about $40b on paper in the span of about 5 minutes. He basically lost a Twitter in the blink of an eye. God I love this stuff.
 
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