Investing General Discussion

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Lambourne

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Annual asset returns overview

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Haus

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Annual asset returns overview

View attachment 566071
So essentially this tells us Bitcoin has a 3 year positive/1 year negative pattern moderaty well established. So we're about to go into year three of the current up cycle. Then somewhere around the end of next year you just pivot into the bloomberg dollar index, then back into bitcoin in 2027.
 
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Loser Araysar

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NVDA keeps delivering the hits this morning

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Hateyou

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So essentially this tells us Bitcoin has a 3 year positive/1 year negative pattern moderaty well established. So we're about to go into year three of the current up cycle. Then somewhere around the end of next year you just pivot into the bloomberg dollar index, then back into bitcoin in 2027.
Once you can see a pattern it breaks
 

Rangoth

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Also tells me that had you split your money between bitcoin and S&P you'd be doing just fine year over year. The bad bitcoin years are rough indeed, but it still works about amazingly over time.
 
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Dalren

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Well this is absolutely unexpected MSTR news. Saylor is either going to nuke my MSTR bags or pull off something that could potentially end the next bitcoin bear cycle...

 

Jysin

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What do you mean unexpected? Every time he buys bitcoin he dilutes shares.
Bro, do you even hodl? BTC and MSTR only go up! What could possibly go wrong in a huge forced deleveraging event? To the moon!
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Bro, do you even hodl? BTC and MSTR only go up! What could possibly go wrong in a huge forced deleveraging event? To the moon!
Once again we will find that human beings find a way to screw up anything. Saylor has returned value for MSTR shareholders with his BTC strat but instead of sitting pretty he is gonna keep pushing the envelope. Go to the well enough times you eventually find it empty.
 
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Blazin

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I already post most of my activity here but decided to try an experiment if anyone wants to follow along more easily. I set up a $200k portfolio and I'm going to post every trade I make in that portfolio when I make it. This is actual money and trades not a paper account. I don't make 1% a day so no get rich quick here but if someone appreciates the more open log. I no longer work for a wage so my priorities may differ than others. I plan to use this particular portfolio for being more active which is why I picked it at it's more interesting than others that maybe have a handful of action all year.

I think it's good for people to see honesty, losses, bad trades and months, not just the #winning that is so common. Next year will probably be a more challenging trading environment than we have had as of late. Do I make 10%, 20% do I lose half of it? Let's find out. To me it will be funny if I have my worst year in a while it would be ironically fitting. So enjoy the schadenfreude.

I'm still going to post thoughts here but if people want to see the actual doings, it will be there.
 
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Rangoth

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Join after hours. I did and my entire portfolio is visible. Side note what’s the goal with this 200k?
 

Blazin

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Goal is to hopefully continue to put up numbers like this:
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I would say my risk taking will be targeted around making 2% a month. If opportunities present themselves obviously that is not some hard target.

These are metrics few ever look at , but to me they are everything. To me it's meaningless what % a trader makes versus looking at how much risk they took to achieve it and look at how much the markets movement accounted for their returns. So I want a healthy sharpe ratio , low standard deviation, high Risk adjusted ALpha, low beta, low r2.

I'd be thrilled to finish the year with the port at 250, but I don't worry about that stuff too much we have no idea what kind of year we are going to have. Finishing flat may be a massive homerun depending on overall market returns.

The only thing of any value I think I have for people is "risk Management" . I can already tell from what you do post, your looking for more risk than I'm going to be any help with.
 
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