Sanrith Descartes
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Oh you know I was paying car insurance for an under 18 driver. It was/is painful.
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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So the beauty of something like the S&P 500 is that it's self cleansing. It's always going to be the top 500 market cap companies (more or less, won't go into the actual intricacies of being added to it). Which means as long as something is still making money, you make money.
Basically, betting against it is betting against the entire US economy. And if it comes tumbling down, well, there wasn't anything safe anyway. If all the companies in the S&P 500 go into the shitter, you think there's a safe haven...anywhere? It's certainly not international, we've seen that play out with the 2008 recession and covid where everyone got hit way harder. It's definitely not bonds, because if equities crash, everything else has gone to shit.
Essentially what I always say is, your contingency for the market collapsing is guns and ammo. That's it. If things get so bad your portfolio is worthless, we're in a real shit show and I hope you're a prepper.
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Cad
scientia potentia est
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Your situation is actually the argument to stay in equities rather than go to bonds. Even if you got 4% in bonds and your safe withdrawal rate is 4%, that eliminates any increase in your budget for the rest of your life. If you stay in equities and still live off 4% but make 9-10% (on average, I know there will be down years) you will account for inflation and allow your budget to naturally increase as your principal increases as you age. The risk is that if you retire in June 1929 on this strategy, you could end up broke or living like a pauper before the market recovers. On the other hand we haven't had any 1929 events since 1929.
I also wouldn't try retiring below 50 with $1.7M, you're going to end up having to be too frugal for too long. You want to enjoy your retirement and be able to do things, not sit at home watching TV and eating ramen.
Sanrith Descartes
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Xarpolis
Life's a Dream
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Maybe the better option in that particular situation is to have her stop driving all together and make Uber or Lyft a commonly used app in place of payments for car and insurance?
Hateyou
Not Great, Not Terrible
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This happened a few months ago near me.
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Almost tboned some retard driving a shoebox coming home from hiking earlier today who thought it would be a good idea to make a left right in front of me. Thank god for abs.
tugofpeace
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Well the weird thing is that even at 4%, I wouldn't be able to outspend my savings unless I was determined to burn all my money. So I figure what's even the point of going for anything more. My thought is to switch to bonds @ 55 for a 5% rate, then go @ 65 go for 4%.
It was just a theorycrafting exercise, I've already experienced the retired life in my early 30s and honestly don't look forward to early retirement. I rather work to 55, heck maybe even beyond that if I ever find something I enjoy doing for a living. There really is too much time in the day to do absolutely nothing productive.
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Woah, your 6 pack absorbed the crash? You must be ripped
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Sanrith Descartes
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AAPL approaching its 200-DMA and its RSI just dipped below 30. If anyone is looking for an entry point, that $218 number is looking to be a possibility.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Its down for a reason today. -3.5%
iPhone sales data out of China tanked over the holidays. Caught a ton of downgrades and downward price revisions today.
Plus the ominous sign of:
I honestly think most people are seeing past the "Apple Intelligence" sales pitch as pure bullshit. This cycle is going to be pretty lackluster in my opinion.
(Coming from an entire household in the Apple ecosystem.)
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Blazin
Creative Title
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I'm going to be very slow to make a decision since its my LT portfolio but if Tim Apple doesn't get his shit together I'm at least going to start reducing holdings. They are milking that service revenue cow and that's isn't going to end overnight but it's not enough to coast. I'm not interested in coasting. I made it my largest holding over 40% ago and there was an argument for that move. At this price level they have to shit or get off the pot. This decline has not hurt me "yet". I've been short calls since the top. Selling my CC in the money for 3 months now and still having them expire worthless.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Probably something worth spending a little time on. If you are holding LT shares in a company and you aren't interested in selling but also think the current price is too high. Selling calls at or in the money is a way to tread water for awhile and protect some decline.
As AAPL started going over 235 it moved for me into the "Too high" category. So here are some examples of how I managed that.
On 12/20 I sold the AAPL250103C240 at the time Apple was trading for about $253. I collected $14.90 a contract ($1,490). Once I'm in that trade I have now muted the stock movement in the down direction and limited my benefit from any gain higher (which I felt was highly unlikely to hold). On 1/2 I bought to close those contracts for $5.05 ($505), so I netted $9.85/share from 12/20 - 1/2 being short the position. I then sold the AAPL250117C245 for $4.05 . On 1/16 I closed that position for $0.02, gaining another $4.02/share, I then sold 2/21 calls which are already near worthless, and on it goes.
It logical to ask, why not just sell the top and wait. I think two main reasons: Taxes and Patience (noise canceling) Part of what I like about this strategy is that it slows me down on my LT portfolio to not make dramatic position decisions in response to short term noise. Now if a stock completely falls apart its easy to look back and say you should have sold the shares but that ignores the other chance that you may have bought back in at some point and been hurt anyway. Part of a stock being in this particular portfolio for me, means I will seek to avoid selling the position solely for timing purposes, allow options trade at the margins be the timing but the core holding is not bouncing in and out.
I would be less inclined to trade this way in a tax advantaged account. I'm currently doing this with TSLA as well. I am short via calls at levels above 360 and in some ways it's been nice, I don't really care about the big swings up and down of late most days my position in TSLA despite being my largest position is flat. I will likely slowly work that strike up higher over the months just letting the stocks IV pay me while I believe it remains in an overbought condition.
As AAPL started going over 235 it moved for me into the "Too high" category. So here are some examples of how I managed that.
On 12/20 I sold the AAPL250103C240 at the time Apple was trading for about $253. I collected $14.90 a contract ($1,490). Once I'm in that trade I have now muted the stock movement in the down direction and limited my benefit from any gain higher (which I felt was highly unlikely to hold). On 1/2 I bought to close those contracts for $5.05 ($505), so I netted $9.85/share from 12/20 - 1/2 being short the position. I then sold the AAPL250117C245 for $4.05 . On 1/16 I closed that position for $0.02, gaining another $4.02/share, I then sold 2/21 calls which are already near worthless, and on it goes.
It logical to ask, why not just sell the top and wait. I think two main reasons: Taxes and Patience (noise canceling) Part of what I like about this strategy is that it slows me down on my LT portfolio to not make dramatic position decisions in response to short term noise. Now if a stock completely falls apart its easy to look back and say you should have sold the shares but that ignores the other chance that you may have bought back in at some point and been hurt anyway. Part of a stock being in this particular portfolio for me, means I will seek to avoid selling the position solely for timing purposes, allow options trade at the margins be the timing but the core holding is not bouncing in and out.
I would be less inclined to trade this way in a tax advantaged account. I'm currently doing this with TSLA as well. I am short via calls at levels above 360 and in some ways it's been nice, I don't really care about the big swings up and down of late most days my position in TSLA despite being my largest position is flat. I will likely slowly work that strike up higher over the months just letting the stocks IV pay me while I believe it remains in an overbought condition.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Is AAPL the same company it was 5 years ago? Nah. But I have seen lots of calls proclaiming its death and it always seems to prove them wrong. I have a full position and I'm not adding to it for weight reasons, but this is not a horse I am kicking out of the barn anytime soon. Its rear looking PE is 31 so its not cheap. It needs to bring in earnings to justify its share price on the 30th.
Blazin
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Definitely deserves patience. It likes to break the 200d so you can't use that as a marker. Just look at it's history it very often breaks 200d on pullbacks. A decline below 200-205 would enter the concerning range for me. Will pay more attention to time below 200d or failure to recover on a rally rather than using it as a hard line.
Sanrith Descartes
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I agree. My previous post about the 200 was for anyone interesting in starting a position that once it breaches the 200 (if it did) with its RSI below 30 was the time to start looking at it. its 10-yr average PE is around 28 so its gotten stretched during that bull stampede we had in 2024.