Blazin
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Not disagreeing with that, it's just not the place to pontificate on the why/who of it. We have ample space for that, this space is to talk about how to profit from it.
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Investing General Discussion
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Sure. But when someone says "the oil prices are entirely because of OPEC," I'm not going to pretend that's a true statement.
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When I said that about pol in the crypto thread the other day, I made it a polite reminder. That escalated because Lachius is a goddamn idiot who has to latch onto any kind of moderation, even polite moderation. That escalation was directed at him specifically not everyone here. With a couple of exceptions people in this section are pretty good about not getting into full-on politics derails.
Just keep that guideline in mind, and if in your own judgement you're getting into a purely politics type of response, write it down then cut it and post it in the pol section. Hell, even tag the people you want to hit with it over there. It's not a perfect solution, but it's the least draconian one I can think of and still keep things flowing smoothly in the non-pol parts of the forum.
Just keep that guideline in mind, and if in your own judgement you're getting into a purely politics type of response, write it down then cut it and post it in the pol section. Hell, even tag the people you want to hit with it over there. It's not a perfect solution, but it's the least draconian one I can think of and still keep things flowing smoothly in the non-pol parts of the forum.
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Blazin
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You don't have to , but the person who is posting that is already wandering over the line and it's of little value to an investment thread. The majority of the time people want to simplify very complex systems to a definitive couple word sentence is usually just wasting people's time from a useful information point of view. I don't want to nitpick every little post, and haven't, people can opine here and there but if you want to engage in a political debate it's easiest enough to hit the quote button and do it elsewhere.
Political opinions, my own included, for the most part are a detriment to making money. They are very important to us, maybe even more so than wealth, but as a discipline they are the exact kind of thinking ill suited to making clear financial choices. Our market cares not a whit for our ideology.
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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At some point the market has to get numb to the Russia bullshit, people are trying to point their fingers at fed hikes and whatever they can think of because the Ukraine conflict doesn't make any sense. Watching cnbc today and the fill in guy for the judge asked how the Ukraine conflict affect Microsoft's earnings when the reality is it really shouldn't.
Nobody is going to stop using Google or buying iPhones because russia.
Oil is projected through the roof with even more crazy estimates of $200 barrels and it's just insane nonsense.
Now you could say with higher gas prices maybe Americans will have less money to spend but i don't see oil stocks rocketing, in fact i was bouncing all over checking and they were mostly flat with prices valued at $30 a barrel still!
The only thing that makes sense to me is, the market is pricing in Taiwan getting moved on. If that's really what is going on then every semi sensitive company is going to go much, much lower.
If Taiwan isn't the reason then the selling is way overdone. If investors are worried about getting nuked by Russia then there's no reason to be selling stocks, it's like shorting the nasdaq because a giant meteor is going to wipe out civilization next week. I doubt you could even clear the funds with your bank before you're dead.
Nobody is going to stop using Google or buying iPhones because russia.
Oil is projected through the roof with even more crazy estimates of $200 barrels and it's just insane nonsense.
Now you could say with higher gas prices maybe Americans will have less money to spend but i don't see oil stocks rocketing, in fact i was bouncing all over checking and they were mostly flat with prices valued at $30 a barrel still!
The only thing that makes sense to me is, the market is pricing in Taiwan getting moved on. If that's really what is going on then every semi sensitive company is going to go much, much lower.
If Taiwan isn't the reason then the selling is way overdone. If investors are worried about getting nuked by Russia then there's no reason to be selling stocks, it's like shorting the nasdaq because a giant meteor is going to wipe out civilization next week. I doubt you could even clear the funds with your bank before you're dead.
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You're going too far in the other direction. Obviously the price of oil fluctuates regardless of the strength of the dollar as it always has. Supply and demand play a huge role, as well as the perceived impacts of geopolitics on both of those. Dollar printing obviously has some impact, but to say oil price increases are entirely due to inflation? No
Strifen
Molten Core Raider
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When you see stocks like Netflix and Facebook drop 25% in a day you know this isn't a routine tech correction. This entire sector got pumped to shit over the course of the plandemic in an absurdly low interest rate environment. All that junk like Zoom, Teledoc, and whatever other crap that fills the ARK ETF is NOT going to be coming back to life anytime soon. If you haven't been paying attention we're about to witness one of the biggest movements of wealth out of the tech sector and into commodities you just need to watch what's going on in the oil market and see how stocks like ZOM and USO have been doing lately.
Tech has had a great run and many stocks will still do well but its looking like commodities are going to be the play this decade with rates going up and geopolitical tensions causing countries to focus on securing supply/hoarding commodities. I'm seeing money flowing out of stocks/nasdaq listed companies and into energy so things like oil, natural gas, uranium, battery metals, rare earths, all this stuff is going to become a shitload more expensive this decade. The world post covid-19, investors are going to start favouring the things we need to actually keep the lights on and resources we need to build out civilization.
There's been massive under investment in the mining and fossil fuel exploration industry the last 10 years or so with that money being in favour of high growth stocks. In a few years or maybe sooner this is going to come back and bite the world in the ass it's going to get nasty and could even cause resource wars to break out there just won't be enough metals or fossil fuels to go around.
S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GSCI TR) in relation to the S&P 500 Index over the last 50 years.
Tech has had a great run and many stocks will still do well but its looking like commodities are going to be the play this decade with rates going up and geopolitical tensions causing countries to focus on securing supply/hoarding commodities. I'm seeing money flowing out of stocks/nasdaq listed companies and into energy so things like oil, natural gas, uranium, battery metals, rare earths, all this stuff is going to become a shitload more expensive this decade. The world post covid-19, investors are going to start favouring the things we need to actually keep the lights on and resources we need to build out civilization.
There's been massive under investment in the mining and fossil fuel exploration industry the last 10 years or so with that money being in favour of high growth stocks. In a few years or maybe sooner this is going to come back and bite the world in the ass it's going to get nasty and could even cause resource wars to break out there just won't be enough metals or fossil fuels to go around.
S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GSCI TR) in relation to the S&P 500 Index over the last 50 years.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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It's talked about often here, on both sides of the equation, but valuations are becoming meaningful again. Remember the market is forward looking so the adjustments being made to share prices are a combo of rate hikes which make borrowing more expensive for companies and revenues coming back to "normal" for some companies as we wind down Covid.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I want to point out that I'm the only person even close to the current market number in the prediction thread. Granted, we're only 2 months into the year, but I think it's going to keep dropping.
I think we end the year about where we are now, after it falls much further.
I think we end the year about where we are now, after it falls much further.
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Reality is, theres a price for everything, what would you want to pay for a particular stock? Is Facebook at $30 a buy? Of course, how about $200? Many investors said hell yeah if it goes under 200 they will play it because they still make money, a lot.
What price for anything is worth buying? I would say any stock that's actually having price appreciation is worth buying. That's why Tesla is where it is. It's not going up $100-200 a day right now, why the fuck would you buy it now? You won't.
All it takes is one green day and the entire narrative goes away, everyone justifies the move with their own conclusions and off we go.
If the fed comes out and says it's too dangerous to tighten and raise rates right now and the economy is on the back of its feet with geopolitical induced inflation's that monetary policy won't fix, what do you think the s&p would be next week?
That's just an example that could likely happen. Unfortunately the world is very fickle, it binges on current events and then soon as something new and shiny comes along...
What price for anything is worth buying? I would say any stock that's actually having price appreciation is worth buying. That's why Tesla is where it is. It's not going up $100-200 a day right now, why the fuck would you buy it now? You won't.
All it takes is one green day and the entire narrative goes away, everyone justifies the move with their own conclusions and off we go.
If the fed comes out and says it's too dangerous to tighten and raise rates right now and the economy is on the back of its feet with geopolitical induced inflation's that monetary policy won't fix, what do you think the s&p would be next week?
That's just an example that could likely happen. Unfortunately the world is very fickle, it binges on current events and then soon as something new and shiny comes along...
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Borzak
Bronze Baron of the Realm
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I have somewhere around $120,000 in cash in my 401k. I wonder when the optimal time to buy will be. It’s hard to tell what kind of crisis this will cause for weeks or months to come.
I think this puts the nail in the coffin of my house-buying exercise. I took out ~60% equity worth at SPY 450; the way things are heading I could make a couple hundred grand if I buy this and suck up another rental for a while.
