Is the MMO Market imploding?
- Thread starter tad10
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I like how FFXIV handled things. One set of questhubs and then you're pretty much done forever, and can use hunting logs to grind mobs for focused exp. It just needed to have more of them, or the hunting log reset now and then. I think I would be ok with quest hubs if they didn't make me run back a zillion times to turn in and collect new quests. I hate that shit, just let me do it in the UI, or at least call it in at the end like in TSW. I like quests to be maybe 15-20% of my leveling, and then let me do my own thing. In a lot of games I feel like I can literally never leave the quest hub because I'm OCD about finishing them, but every time I turn in one, it gives me four more.
zombiewizardhawk
Potato del Grande
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MMO's aren't really dying. When 3+ new MMO are coming out every year of course sub numbers are going to fluctuate and then the f2p like others have mentioned. It's hard to keep a game going for 5+ years when you have to compete with 15 new versions of the same style game. People want new things, excitement, discovery, etc. so they're naturally going to jump on the new stuff that comes out (hai2u yearly release of $120 FPS that basically changes the killstreak rewards and the names of guns and that's about it but it's NEW!).
These companies are not firing people because they "didn't make their game hard" blah blah blah. How many people want a hardcore oldschool MMO like EQ? A good amount, i'm sure, but nowhere near the numbers that these companies are targeting (because they want a slice of the WoW pie). If EQ was released today it wouldn't magically have 5+ million subscribers for 10 years straight because they made it "hard" or made teamwork/reputation meaningful/mandatory. It would follow the same pattern all these other MMO's are following and get a massive launch just because it's the new MMO and then lose most of them 1-3 months later. You're not going to get 5million subscribers in a game that takes 2 hours to get where you need to go and then 4 hours to do what you need to do. Those sub numbers and all that cash (which lets face it, that's what the companies making MMOs really want (and companies in general)). Why would they spend their budget on a game aimed at securing 250k subs for 20 years straight when they could aim at 10million box sales and subs over 1-3 months and then who gives a shit if 2 years later they fire their staff and hire a new one for their next MMO lottery jackpot ticket).
These companies are not firing people because they "didn't make their game hard" blah blah blah. How many people want a hardcore oldschool MMO like EQ? A good amount, i'm sure, but nowhere near the numbers that these companies are targeting (because they want a slice of the WoW pie). If EQ was released today it wouldn't magically have 5+ million subscribers for 10 years straight because they made it "hard" or made teamwork/reputation meaningful/mandatory. It would follow the same pattern all these other MMO's are following and get a massive launch just because it's the new MMO and then lose most of them 1-3 months later. You're not going to get 5million subscribers in a game that takes 2 hours to get where you need to go and then 4 hours to do what you need to do. Those sub numbers and all that cash (which lets face it, that's what the companies making MMOs really want (and companies in general)). Why would they spend their budget on a game aimed at securing 250k subs for 20 years straight when they could aim at 10million box sales and subs over 1-3 months and then who gives a shit if 2 years later they fire their staff and hire a new one for their next MMO lottery jackpot ticket).
What. I'm calling bullshit on this. Given that the NFL is projected to bring in over 10 billion (with a B) dollars in gross revenue this year. MMO's don't come even remotely close to that, let alone being "lots more".
Agraza
Registered Hutt
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The worldwide MMO industry generates over $12bn in annual revenue according to some analyses, and year over year growth in the western world fluctuates between 10 and 25%. So they're ahead now, and they're going to keep growing in larger and larger amounts of absolute revenue. Unfortunately (for them), despite revenues growing at a really healthy clip, the amount of competition is taking a bite out of profits as the top shelf has had to become more productive and/or charge less for their product.
Quaid
Trump's Staff
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Quaid
Trump's Staff
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I'm betting the MMORPG industry evolves into the main source of digital entertainment for the masses in the very near future. We'll start seeing full blown alternate digital avatar based world real soon... Probably for everything from leisure to trade to sex.
The industry isn't dying... It's in its infancy.
The industry isn't dying... It's in its infancy.
Quaid
Trump's Staff
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zzeris
King Turd of Shit Hill
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Yes, exactly! International product vs a basically local one. No big surprise really. Those 32 entities don't have to really worry about better competition though and their business is set for a very long haul.
Quaid
Trump's Staff
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The point is, the industry is not hurting... And I'm pretty sure it's seen nothing but growth, and digital entertainment products in general are projected to grow as well.
zzeris
King Turd of Shit Hill
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It just depends on your definition of the industry really. MMORPGs, as classified, may not be the future but MMOs are in some form or other. Digital entertainment will obviously grow but there are many forms of entertainment. I didn't mean to be overly critical, it just sounded funny to hear the comparison.
This is really the heart of the issue. It happened in music and movies, and it's happened in games. Games are big business and the ones controlling the promotion are the same ones pimping their soulless, cash grabbing garbage. They are so desperate to cast their nets wide and make the money that they are forgetting the reason that people were attracted to games in the first place. Or, it's less that they've forgotten and more that they don't care.
Not everything has to be AAA. It reminds me ofSpielberg's criticism of the movie industry. At 500k subs we used to joke about Verant driving around in there Ferraris; we just need something like a B-corp dev houses where the focus is on creating meaningful games first, profit second. Kickstarter, et al are good examples of people who give a shit about games finding a way around the monied interests (though that is becoming it's own mess lately) but it tends to just dump smaller houses into the same sick and broken system that is killing off everyone else. What the solution ends up being is yet to become obvious, though we are at the point where the problems are clear
Financially, the industry is doing great and it will continue to do so. Really the problem lies in those who don't want the AAA or mass appeal games. Hopefully we're moving to a time when MMORPG is realized to be too broad a label to satisfy the old UO/EQ crowd and the more modern theme park players. Similarly to movies though, all of the games with heart and artistic merit seem to be going to other streams other than AAA titles, which are becoming flashier models on a more and more homogenized core. This is why I don't expect a fully engaging AAA 'mmo' until there is a serious shakeup in the major studios.
tad10
Elisha Dushku
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