NFL 2014 Off-Season Thread

Fuck extra points. It should be 2 point conversions only.

If coaches weren't so terrible at math they'd go for 2 more often without any crazy rule changes. Any time you're down by 2 tds you should always go for the 2 pt conversion.

Ambiturner_sl said:

If coaches weren't so terrible at math they'd go for 2 more often without any crazy rule changes.

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How so? Expected point value for an extra point is .996, for a 2 point conversion 1.009. They are virtually identical propositions with the caveat that the epv for a 2 point conversion is much more volatile in the small sample size of a single game making it more risky.

The only time it bothers me when coaches fail at math is when teams are in an obvious situation down 2+ scores and needing at least one 2 point conversion to force OT. Say you're down 35-20 with about 3 or 4 minutes to go without full compliment of timeouts, you drive quickly down the field and punch it in for a TD, but it's amazing to me how many of these coaches just kick the extra point instead of going for 2.

It's almost as if they want to keep it dramatic by saving the conversion for the possible game-tying play. I'd rather go for the 2 right then and there to know whether or not I'd need 2 more possessions, instead of possibly getting another TD and failing the 2 with basically no time on the clock at the very end and not having time to do anything about it.

At least if you try the 2 points conversion and fail with a couple minutes to go you know you need a TD and a field goal, so you in theory have time to pull it off.

opiate82_sl said:

How so? Expected point value for an extra point is .996, for a 2 point conversion 1.009. They are virtually identical propositions with the caveat that the epv for a 2 point conversion is much more volatile in the small sample size of a single game making it more risky.

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It's because a game that goes into OT gives you only a 50% chance to win. So while you're more likely to make it to OT, you're less likely to actually win. If you go for 2 and succeed the first time then the second TD gives you the lead as you'd obviously kick it at that point. The only way it's worse is if you miss both attempts, it's better if you make the first, and equal if you only make the second.

Going for 2 both times gives you a roughly 66% chance of victory while kicking both times lowers it to 50%.

Merrith_sl said:

The only time it bothers me when coaches fail at math is when teams are in an obvious situation down 2+ scores and needing at least one 2 point conversion to force OT. Say you're down 35-20 with about 3 or 4 minutes to go without full compliment of timeouts, you drive quickly down the field and punch it in for a TD, but it's amazing to me how many of these coaches just kick the extra point instead of going for 2.

It's almost as if they want to keep it dramatic by saving the conversion for the possible game-tying play. I'd rather go for the 2 right then and there to know whether or not I'd need 2 more possessions, instead of possibly getting another TD and failing the 2 with basically no time on the clock at the very end and not having time to do anything about it.

At least if you try the 2 points conversion and fail with a couple minutes to go you know you need a TD and a field goal, so you in theory have time to pull it off.

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Well if they need a 2pt another TD and an extra point you might as well take the gimme and let your guys "make a play" later with some momentum and flare on their side as opposed to ending the game with 4 minutes left by going for 2 and getting nothing.

One other thing, assuming you get a 3 and out right after or some kind of pick 6 / fumble etc... and the other teams D has to come back out on the field you should be more likely to succeed on that 2 point on the subsequent series given the D will be more tired and on their heels after being scored on twice in under a few minutes.

I really don't see much benefit for going all in on a play with 4 minutes left that essentially ends the game for you if you fail. Plenty of football left to play if you get that PAT which is a gimme. The entire dynamic would change on a failed 2 pt try with 4 minutes left. That is why you don't see it happen.

Ambiturner_sl said:

It's because a game that goes into OT gives you only a 50% chance to win.

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Uhh no. That's as stupid as saying every team has a 50% chance to win at kickoff because the score's tied at 0. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it.

Kedwyn_sl said:

Well if they need a 2pt another TD and an extra point you might as well take the gimme and let your guys "make a play" later with some momentum and flare on their side as opposed to ending the game with 4 minutes left by going for 2 and getting nothing.

One other thing, assuming you get a 3 and out right after or some kind of pick 6 / fumble etc... and the other teams D has to come back out on the field you should be more likely to succeed on that 2 point on the subsequent series given the D will be more tired and on their heels after being scored on twice in under a few minutes.

I really don't see much benefit for going all in on a play with 4 minutes left that essentially ends the game for you if you fail. Plenty of football left to play if you get that PAT which is a gimme. The entire dynamic would change on a failed 2 pt try with 4 minutes left. That is why you don't see it happen.

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I just don't see it as going all in then, I see it as going all in when you save it until the final score...you're leaving yourself no other options. By going for it early you at least have time to try to overcome it if you fail. You're going to have to try it at some point, why not do it when you can have a plan for either outcome?

I get the whole momentum/fatigue factor, but I think it's really minor overall to the success or failure of the attempt. That's all going to come down to the play call and someone making (or not making) a play 99% of the time imo.

Disp_sl said:

Uhh no. That's as stupid as saying every team has a 50% chance to win at kickoff because the score's tied at 0. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it.

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Like?

Disp_sl said:

Uhh no. That's as stupid as saying every team has a 50% chance to win at kickoff because the score's tied at 0. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it.

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Double post

Foggy_sl said:

Fuck extra points. It should be 2 point conversions only.

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I like the idea of them just giving the extra point if they want it or have them try for the 2 point conversion. It would save a lot of commercial time after a TD if they did it that way.

Caliel_sl said:

I like the idea of them just giving the extra point if they want it or have them try for the 2 point conversion. It would save a lot of commercial time after a TD if they did it that way.

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And move the ball to the 1 yard line instead of the 2.

Caliel_sl said:

I like the idea of them just giving the extra point if they want it or have them try for the 2 point conversion. It would save a lot of commercial time after a TD if they did it that way.

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Like they want less commercial time.

Ambiturner_sl said:

Like?

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Like a myriad of variables. You're telling me if a score is 24-0 at halftime, but one team comes screaming back to tie it 24-24 while shutting out the other in the second half that each have an equal chance of winning in overtime just because the score's tied?

Sorry you guys don't understand statistics and simple math. Maybe stick to crying about people not loving Kaep enough?

After looking up your example of large comebacks last year I found:

Week 4 Seattle made a 20 point comeback to beat the Bucs
Week 6 the Bills made a 14 point fourth quarter comeback to lose to the Bengals
Week 9 the Bengals made 14 point comeback to lose to Dolphins
Week 9 also had Seattle make 21 point comeback and then beat the Bucs
Week 10 had the Bengals make a 17 point comeback to lose to Baltimore
Week 12 had Patriots make 24 point comeback to beat Denver
Week 13 Falcons had 14 point comeback to beat Buffalo
Week 15 Titans made 17 comeback to lose to Arizona

So last year teams making a 14+ point comeback were 4-4 in OT. Pretty close to the 50% figure I gave.

Teams making a 24 point comeback were an astonishing 1-0, though.

If you take 2012 to help increase the small sample size we get:

Week 3 the Lions make 14 point comeback to lose to Titans
Week 3 also has Chiefs make 18 point comeback to defeat the Saints
Week 7 Oakland made 14 point comeback to defeat the Jags
Week 11 Texans made 14 point comeback to defeat Jags
Week 16 Dallas made 14 point comeback to lose to Saints

so for 2012 teams making 14+ comeback were 3-2 in OT. for a total of 7-6 in the last two years.

Unfortunately, there weren't any 24 point comebacks that went to OT.

You are hands down the stupidest poster on this board.

I for one like his analysis which means that the Dolphins have a 25% chance of winning the division and a ~ 3% chance of winning the superbowl!

Merrith_sl said:

I just don't see it as going all in then, I see it as going all in when you save it until the final score...you're leaving yourself no other options. By going for it early you at least have time to try to overcome it if you fail. You're going to have to try it at some point, why not do it when you can have a plan for either outcome?

I get the whole momentum/fatigue factor, but I think it's really minor overall to the success or failure of the attempt. That's all going to come down to the play call and someone making (or not making) a play 99% of the time imo.

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If you go for 2 and don't get it you still need 2 scores in 3 minutes or so which is very unlikely. In addition to that, the other team can play ultra conservatively, on two possessions, run out the clock and you lose. You need 2 incredible series to win which is unlikely. Even if the other team just does mediocre and gets a first down or two the game is still over because you need that second drive to win and time dwindles fast. Which is why I said if you don't get the 2pt in that situation the game is essentially over more times than not.

If you go for the PAT (almost guaranteed) you only need 1 score in 3 minutes meaning the other team can't just try to run out the clock because you will get the ball back with good field position and time only needing one score for victory. Even if the other team gets a first down or two which is very likely you will have a good chance of still having an opportunity to win.

You are almost guaranteed to only need a single score with taking the PAT first, the entire mentality of the game changes and that 2pt will be easier after that second td with the game on the line and the other teams D exhausted from having back to back scores on them. 2pt conversions are hardly automatic and in the situation described you always take the guaranteed points to reduce the likely number of possessions required to tie or win.