NFL 2014 Off-Season Thread

  • Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!



    Go here and give us your nominations!
    Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
BrutulTM

BrutulTM

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
<Silver Donator>
14,674
2,536
Obviously it takes a wall of text to prove that you know more about football than the head coaches in the NFL.
 
Ambiturner

Ambiturner

Ssraeszha Raider
16,043
19,530
You are correct about the 50% assumption. if there's reason to believe you have > 60% chance to win in OT then it makes sense to kick the PATs. In reality, those situations are very rare. That's why I went through the last couple years and found that the teams that had made 14 point comebacks won almost exactly half the time.

Also, that article is mostly based on whether a team should choose to kick or receive. The part about chances to win in OT ranges from 47% at the low end to 53% at the high end, reinforcing the 50/50 split
 
Slaythe

Slaythe

<Bronze Donator>
3,389
141
Using the same small sample sizes, the Packers converted on only 1 of their 7 2 pt attempts over the past two seasons. This sort of stat is way too volatile to base any real conclusions on, but that team, who obviously has a 2 pt % rate way below 48% (the figure used in your examples), they're win probability when down two TDs, scoring those two TDs and going for two both times is going to be way below 60%.

That's just one example of this rule not applying in all cases, because no single team is going to follow the league average on anything. That's a dumb metric to base strategy off of.
 
Ambiturner

Ambiturner

Ssraeszha Raider
16,043
19,530
It won't be better in all situations, in fact it will be worse in approx 40% of them. Picking out 1 team that would have been worse off doesn't really disprove anything. As long as most teams would have been better off it's still the better choice. You also have situations like Rodgers going down that could make you feel better about kicking, and I wouldn't argue against that.

13 teams had > 40% 2 point success rate while 11 teams had <40% and the other 8 are pussies and didn't go for it once.
 
Slaythe

Slaythe

<Bronze Donator>
3,389
141
Ambiturner_sl said:
As long as most teams would have been better off it's still the better choice.
Click to expand...
If you want to make the argument in general that's fine (which is all the article you posted is saying), but that isn't what you said originally.

Ambiturner_sl said:
If coaches weren't so terrible at math they'd go for 2 more often without any crazy rule changes. Any time you're down by 2 tds you should always go for the 2 pt conversion.
Click to expand...
Your last post seems to agree with me that it's obviously situational. You can say "more teams should go for 2" or "most teams should go for two" but you certainly can't sit here and say "all teams should go for 2 when down by 14." Especially when we're talking about a 1/3rd of the league having poor conversion rates (again, the sample size on this is so small I don't think that stat means much).

The mistake is to say that because the league averages 48% on 2 pt tries means that X team will average that.
 
Gravy

Gravy

Bronze Squire
4,918
454
Word on the innerwebs is that Matt Cassell and the Texans have been sniffing each others taints. Might be interesting. Probably not.
 
jooka

jooka

marco esquandolas
<Bronze Donator>
14,877
6,391
Mr Peterson seems to want some Vick action up in your parts.
 
Sutekh

Sutekh

Blackwing Lair Raider
7,489
106
It would kind of make the Vikings really good, assuming he doesn't go all 'Michael Vick' and get hurt mid season.
 
jooka

jooka

marco esquandolas
<Bronze Donator>
14,877
6,391
Would be a good fit if you could stay healthy, but that hasn't been the case for what like 6 years now?
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
<Gold Donor>
80,210
160,503
Bears arent resigning Devin Hester. I think he would be perfect for the Vikings.
 
Famm

Famm

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
11,041
794
Shit, I'd take him in Baltimore for a year or two if he comes dirt cheap like a million. Lots less than Jacoby wants, except Hester won't be a viable # 3 or 4 WR.
 
Alex

Alex

Still a Music Elitist
14,670
7,488
Using percentages in a game with only 16 games per year is kind of silly. Baseball season is coming up. And I love percentages in baseball. Take 'em to that thread. But please, wait for June to roll around. None of this "He's batting .570!" while it's still April.

Don't you fucking dare say the Vikings are sad. You took Zim. You better be goddamn grateful.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
<Gold Donor>
80,210
160,503
mnxiz78qcqpexo84sglc.gif
 
Slaythe

Slaythe

<Bronze Donator>
3,389
141
Sutekh_sl said:
It would kind of make the Vikings really good, assuming he doesn't go all 'Michael Vick' and get hurt mid season.
Click to expand...
I think Zimmer is going to help a ton but let's not get ahead of ourselves. This team has just as much need all over on defense as they do at QB. We were god awful on that side of the ball last year and this season will probably have at least six players starting that weren't even on the roster prior.
 
Gravy

Gravy

Bronze Squire
4,918
454
I appreciate Urlacher's feelings, but that's generally just not how the NFL is set up any longer. I think it sucks, too, but whatcha gonna do?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.