NFL 2016 - <whatever Tony is doing>
- Thread starter Muurloen
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Itlan
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Lleauaric
Sparkletot Monger
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Using that ESPN Playoff Machine, the Pats game pretty much determines if the Broncos make the playoffs or not.
Tough game to win for Patriots in Mile High. Despite being a Pats fan, if that line is under 3, Ima take the Broncos, so at least I win either way.
Tough game to win for Patriots in Mile High. Despite being a Pats fan, if that line is under 3, Ima take the Broncos, so at least I win either way.
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moontayle
Golden Squire
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I've always kind of enjoyed the Pythagorean Expectation number as a means to get a larger sense of what might be a reasonable expectation on wins. For instance, the Texas Rangers had a PE number that was around 82 wins, far below the 95 they ended up with, indicating a season of over-achievement. And in the post-season the over-achievement caught up to them. For football it's a number that's difficult to really get a sense on until around week 10, which we're past.
The PE formula is: (pointsScored ^ 2.37 / (pointsScored ^ 2.37 + pointsAgainst ^ 2.37)) * 16
The Giants number comes out to 8.77, so about 9 wins expected as things current stand.
The Redskins number comes out to 8.56, so with the tie that would be pretty accurate if they only win 2 more games.
The Eagles number comes out to 9.64, so they are underachieving pretty hardcore at the moment and would need to win out to meet this expectation.
The Dallas number comes out to 11.5, so 1-2 more wins is a reasonable expectation based upon how they've done so far.
Weird statistical anomaly here as Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys have all allowed the same number of points against at 213.
Of course like most things of this nature you kind of have to take it with a grain of salt. Sometimes the play on the field belies the numbers, and in the end, like I said above, all you really need to do is make it to the playoffs. A good JG staple is that at the end of the day a team controls its own destiny. Sometimes a little luck helps though.
The PE formula is: (pointsScored ^ 2.37 / (pointsScored ^ 2.37 + pointsAgainst ^ 2.37)) * 16
The Giants number comes out to 8.77, so about 9 wins expected as things current stand.
The Redskins number comes out to 8.56, so with the tie that would be pretty accurate if they only win 2 more games.
The Eagles number comes out to 9.64, so they are underachieving pretty hardcore at the moment and would need to win out to meet this expectation.
The Dallas number comes out to 11.5, so 1-2 more wins is a reasonable expectation based upon how they've done so far.
Weird statistical anomaly here as Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys have all allowed the same number of points against at 213.
Of course like most things of this nature you kind of have to take it with a grain of salt. Sometimes the play on the field belies the numbers, and in the end, like I said above, all you really need to do is make it to the playoffs. A good JG staple is that at the end of the day a team controls its own destiny. Sometimes a little luck helps though.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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That seems like it'd work better for baseball where there are a ton more games.
In football, schedule is a lot more meaningful because you can end up with an easier or more difficult schedule than your division, or easier/harder portions at the beginning or end. The Giants for instance have played an easier schedule that they're performing as expected against. But that doesn't take into account their future opponents who may wipe the floor with them.
The Eagles built up a high point differential at the beginning of the season where no one had a good scheme against their rookie QB (which is a normal phenomenon), but they've fallen off hard since.
In football, schedule is a lot more meaningful because you can end up with an easier or more difficult schedule than your division, or easier/harder portions at the beginning or end. The Giants for instance have played an easier schedule that they're performing as expected against. But that doesn't take into account their future opponents who may wipe the floor with them.
The Eagles built up a high point differential at the beginning of the season where no one had a good scheme against their rookie QB (which is a normal phenomenon), but they've fallen off hard since.
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The Eagles are playing like everyone expected them to at the start of the season, it was just thrown off by the 3-0 start. They're a .500 team with very few offensive weapons, a rookie qb with a banged up o-line, and a first year coach. They're in most games with a chance to win, but they're not a good team.
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Itlan
Blackwing Lair Raider
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What is this difficult schedule you guys keep talking about? The Steelers and the Lions? Seriously? The same Lions team who lost to the Bears and the Texans? Steelers team who lost to the Eagles and Dolphins? (Since we want to talk about how the Giants only beat the Bengals by 1 eh?)
Outside of those two there's 3 divisional games where records and previous play simply does not matter. We're 2-1 in the division this year. We could easily be 3-0 or 0-3. Divisional football you throw everything away.
I'm not fearful of this schedule at all.
Outside of those two there's 3 divisional games where records and previous play simply does not matter. We're 2-1 in the division this year. We could easily be 3-0 or 0-3. Divisional football you throw everything away.
I'm not fearful of this schedule at all.
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Hoss
Make America's Team Great Again
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So how long before he posts in here again? If he keeps his word, it'll be never. Not even once the ban is lifted after the SB.
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Kaines
Potato Supreme
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With the exception of TWO games, it's the same schedule that a couple weeks ago was called the "easiest in the league" when the Cowboys played it. Every divisional team plays the EXACT SAME non-divisional schedule with the exception of 2 games. So now everyone wants to say the Giants have it so tough. I really wish sports talking heads would pick a fucking narrative and stick with it.
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pharmakos
soʞɐɯɹɐɥd
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I'm a Lions fan and I'm pretty nervous about that Giants game. And the rest of our schedule. Tho I'm pretty sure at this point we are going to beat the Bears in a couple weeks, but even that's far from sure.
Lions remaining schedule:
@Saints
Bears
@Giants
@Cowboys (on MNF the day after Christmas, ugh)
Packers
We are in first in the NFC North but if we start playing like the Lions of ole then we could very well sink below the wild card slots even.
Lions remaining schedule:
@Saints
Bears
@Giants
@Cowboys (on MNF the day after Christmas, ugh)
Packers
We are in first in the NFC North but if we start playing like the Lions of ole then we could very well sink below the wild card slots even.
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Hoss
Make America's Team Great Again
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Is it possible that some of those opponents are better or worse than they were last year?
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Convo
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Cutler! Haha! Seriously tho. Some of you are really weak sheep trying to pile on when you think someone is in despair. What a bunch of beta pussies. Worst of all you're be lead around by a Dallas group.
And Daezul, seriously... you're the biggest baby in this thread. You can't be serious with this crybaby stuff? I accepted my ban like a man and bunch chumps wanted to change it.
And Daezul, seriously... you're the biggest baby in this thread. You can't be serious with this crybaby stuff? I accepted my ban like a man and bunch chumps wanted to change it.
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Daezuel
Potato del Grande
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Just like Beetlejuice, only took 3 posts!
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