NFL 2016 - <whatever Tony is doing>

Merrith

Merrith

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moontayle said:
I've always kind of enjoyed the Pythagorean Expectation number as a means to get a larger sense of what might be a reasonable expectation on wins. For instance, the Texas Rangers had a PE number that was around 82 wins, far below the 95 they ended up with, indicating a season of over-achievement. And in the post-season the over-achievement caught up to them. For football it's a number that's difficult to really get a sense on until around week 10, which we're past.

The PE formula is: (pointsScored ^ 2.37 / (pointsScored ^ 2.37 + pointsAgainst ^ 2.37)) * 16

The Giants number comes out to 8.77, so about 9 wins expected as things current stand.
The Redskins number comes out to 8.56, so with the tie that would be pretty accurate if they only win 2 more games.
The Eagles number comes out to 9.64, so they are underachieving pretty hardcore at the moment and would need to win out to meet this expectation.
The Dallas number comes out to 11.5, so 1-2 more wins is a reasonable expectation based upon how they've done so far.

Weird statistical anomaly here as Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys have all allowed the same number of points against at 213.

Of course like most things of this nature you kind of have to take it with a grain of salt. Sometimes the play on the field belies the numbers, and in the end, like I said above, all you really need to do is make it to the playoffs. A good JG staple is that at the end of the day a team controls its own destiny. Sometimes a little luck helps though.
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Only real problems with that formula is the small sample size. You end up with one blowout and it pushes your PE up quite a bit. Also defensive teams with bad offenses will score a bit higher than offensive teams with bad D's (even if their point differential for the season are almost exactly the same) just by virtue of the formula dividing by a bigger number.
 
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Dalien

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Famm

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You should have a handicap on that bet, like two weeks of avatar to his one.
 
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Itlan

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Gravel said:
I'm not sure where anyone is calling it a difficult schedule. I had said that so far they've had one of the easiest, which makes the next part more difficult but not some death march of playoff teams (although outside of Philly, which is a divisional game, they are all competing for a playoff spot).
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Fair enough -- I may also be throwing in talking heads from sports shows clamoring on and on about the Giants difficult schedule. I really don't get it, it's divisional match-ups and two limping (perhaps) playoff teams. It's like they're creating a way out for the Giants to miss the playoffs. If they can't win 2/5 or 3/5 and make it to the playoffs they don't deserve to be there. They do nothing but win ugly, so we'll see what they're really made of. Offensive line is in fucking shambles, Eli has no time to throw, receivers routes can't even develop, and Brad McQuaid 2.0 calls a 3-receiver set 96% of our plays. Defense is balling out, though.

As for Eli not winning us those Super Bowls:



 
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Hoss

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Ran across this video on youtube just now. This is why eagles fans deserve our pity. Game from 1986, 2nd down punt because, I guess, the entire team was too dumb to know what down it was? I'm sure Buddy thought it was 3rd down.

 
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Chanur

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On the sports show I was listening to this morning they were talking about how Fisher got caught not knowing who the Patriots RBs were on some call this week. Insert rams gif here.

Jeff Fisher thinks the Patriots have a RB named Danny. Nope!

Fisher did know who LeGarrette Blount is, which is good, because Blount is the Patriots’ leading rusher this season. Fisher said Blount holds a special place in his heart since he got his start with Fisher at the Tennessee Titans.

Blount went undrafted in 2010 and Fisher brought him to Tennessee, until Blount was waived during the team’s final roster cuts following the preseason and ended up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Fisher also mentioned a “Brandon,” and he must be referring to Brandon Bolden, who is on the Patriots’ roster, at least. Bolden has contributed a total of 19 yards to New England’s offensive attack this season, and he hasn’t touched the ball once since Week 4. Bolden primarily contributes on special teams.


“Danny” was the other name Fisher mentioned, and this one’s a little more difficult to pin down. There is a “Danny” on the Patriots’ roster, but Danny Amendola is definitely a wide receiver. Amendola has had a handful of carries in his career, but so far this season, he has not been a part of the rushing attack.
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Fight

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Shocked. The man closing in on the NFL record for career losses apparently lives in his own world of delusion and ineptness. He should play fantasy football, it would be an education.
 
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A

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I read about 60% of that Simmons-Gladwell piece so far and it kind of reaffirms the thoughts i started having when he did Grantland; Simmons has turned into sort of a pussy.
 
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jooka

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Sounds like Gronk will be out for awhile, having back surgery for a herniated disk
 
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Merrith

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jooka said:
Sounds like Gronk will be out for awhile, having back surgery for a herniated disk
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back by end of the year? Pats Should get a bye even without him, long as he's back by then they can compete.
 
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Merrith

Merrith

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Shit, Jordan Reed likely out vs. Arizona this week. Crowder and Davis going to need to have big games.
 
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Ameraves

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Merrith said:
back by end of the year? Pats Should get a bye even without him, long as he's back by then they can compete.
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Says he is expected to be out for 8 weeks. Not sure how hard you want to push a back injury, but I suppose he could make it back for a late playoff run
 
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Merrith

Merrith

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Ameraves said:
Says he is expected to be out for 8 weeks. Not sure how hard you want to push a back injury, but I suppose he could make it back for a late playoff run
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8 weeks at this point basically means AFC Championship Game or Super Bowl.
 
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