I'd love to hear from any Patriots fans how they feel about the team and the game next week against Miami. I'm cautiously optimistic, so super early preview of mine:
New England looks more vulnerable than they ever have, and Miami finally has a coach and the talent to pull a upset. While there is no doubt NE has struggles that they normally correct, this year they are showing their deficiencies in multiple areas, many of these due to injuries to key personnel.
Patriots Advantages: Coaching, QB, Tight End, Home Field
Miami Advantages: Defensive Line, Defensive Secondary, Wide Receivers, Running Backs.
Where both are good: They are well coached with creative schemes to create mismatches. The better coaching for the Patriots gives them an edge, but that is balanced out by better overall talent on Miami's side.
Where both are bad: Linebackers. Ugh.
Matchups to watch:
- Miami's WR corps vs. NE's secondary: If you haven't watched Miami's offense play this season, the best way to describe them is Diet Kansas City Chiefs. They are a slightly slower, less talented version the Chiefs. However, the WR corps is stacked with speed: Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, and Kenny Stills are all faster than anyone the Patriots have healthy and playing Sunday.
- Patriots Receiving corps vs. Miami's Secondary: Gronk is going to get doubled. If Josh Gordon is playing, that will be a great boon for NE. However, Miami has Pro Bowler Reshad Jones back at Safety (shoulder), Alabama Rookie and 1st round draft pick Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Xavien Howard at CB (2 INT's). TJ McDonald and Bobby McCain round out the secondary. Miami's defense is ranked 2nd in takeaways, with 8 this year.
- The running game (both teams): James White and Sony Michel, or Kenyan Drake and the immortal Frank Gore? I expect James White to get more snaps this week in order to cause as many mismatches as possible. Ryan Tannehill was the leading rusher last week against the Raiders with 26 freaking yards.
Score Prediction, Season Prediction: Miami 37, New England 34. Make no mistake: New England has too many injured players coming back a week too late, but they will scheme enough to start scoring points, especially at home. There is too much talent disparity on the current (by current I mean healthy) rosters for even Belichick to outcoach. NE will fall to 1-3, and Miami will go to 4-0.
New England will still be favorites to win the division as many of their players will return in Week 5 vs. the Colts. As the season goes on, Sony Michel will get better (he missed most of preseason due to injury), and Josh Gordon will make an impact if they're lucky. I expect them to beat the Colts, Steelers, Vikings, Packers, Bills x 2, Jets x 2, Tennessee, and either Chicago or Miami to finish 11-5. 10-6 and 12-4 are also possible, with 10-6 being much more likely.
Miami is "making hay while the sun is shining." They are beating teams they should beat, but the schedule gets tougher starting with NE. Miami also has a horrible weakness: Depth. Only the D-line was deep, but William Hayes is now out for the season, and De Andre Branch is out for a few weeks with a knee injury. Injuries are going to happen to every team, and I hate to say Miami will stumble a bit down the stretch as the casualties grow. Losses to Cincinatti, Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago, Jets or Bills (We are gonna screw up 1, maybe 2 of these 3 remaining games), and probably NE will give Miami an opportunity to compete for a wildcard spot with a 9-7 or 10-6 record. 11-5 is the ceiling unless Miami gets very, VERY lucky with injuries.
