The Elder Scrolls Online

Gecko_sl said:

I'd probably guess right at a million. They had ~300k box sales and it seems most of their customers were digital.

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I have a feeling if TESO had hit a million, it would have been plastered all over the interwebs. I certainly expected some release of positive numbers, if they had them, right before the free 30 days expired to generate positive buzz. I mean, it's entirely possible that they sold a majority of their box sales via digital (for instance,digital copies of Mists of Pandaria outsold the physical copies almost 4:1) but I would have expected Zenimax to release something if it was positive by now.

My guess is there is nothing positive in their numbers and I'm will to bet subscriptions after the 1st free 30 days are well below expectations. Y'know, cause the game kinda sucks.

Xaxius_sl said:

. I mean, it's entirely possible that they sold a majority of their box sales via digital (for instance,digital copies of Mists of Pandaria outsold the physical copies almost 4:1) but I would have expected Zenimax to release something if it was positive by now.

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Not the right thread, but whatever. I have a massive problem with Blizzards claims about WoW subs - we're expected to believe that it has 2-3 times the subs now than bought the expac in its first week ? Massive shenanigans going on in their massaging of numbers. I know that almost none of the most die hard players I know still play.

Now I do actually believe that WoD will to some extent boost numbers (housing) but right now I believe they're in the pan compared to the image they project.

Flight_sl said:

Not the right thread, but whatever. I have a massive problem with Blizzards claims about WoW subs - we're expected to believe that it has 2-3 times the subs now than bought the expac in its first week ? Massive shenanigans going on in their massaging of numbers. I know that almost none of the most die hard players I know still play.

Now I do actually believe that WoD will to some extent boost numbers (housing) but right now I believe they're in the pan compared to the image they project.

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Are you talking about the 7.6 mil sub number? If so that includes the asian markets. It's been pretty much thought that the NA and EU markets actually hold around 4 mil subs. They really can't fudge the numbers being a publically traded company. They add those chinese subs to make the number bigger but the amount of money coming in is the true indicator. They are rock solid there.

Abefroman_sl said:

Are you talking about the 7.6 mil sub number? If so that includes the asian markets. It's been pretty much thought that the NA and EU markets actually hold around 4 mil subs. They really can't fudge the numbers being a publically traded company. They add those chinese subs to make the number bigger but the amount of money coming in is the true indicator. They are rock solid there.

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If they can't fudge the numbers why can't you quote precise numbers ? 'Around 4 mill' is bollocks. That's still 1.5 times the number that bought the expac in the first week. I don't believe it.

Flight_sl said:

If they can't fudge the numbers why can't you quote precise numbers ? 'Around 4 mill' is bollocks. That's still 1.5 times the number that bought the expac in the first week. I don't believe it.

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They don't need to post exact NA and EU numbers. 7 plus million sounds much better. The financials add up so it isn't an issue. PLenty of people have picked up the xpac after the initial week. New players, people coming back, when the expac gets discounted, peoples farming bot accounts. Hell the xpac was recently going for $10 bucks.

I heard anecdotal experience is the best way to determine subs. "All the hardcore people I knew quit" oh yeah? all the hardcore people I knew still played for the most part. Shit son we're at an impasse.

Flight_sl said:

If they can't fudge the numbers why can't you quote precise numbers ? 'Around 4 mill' is bollocks. That's still 1.5 times the number that bought the expac in the first week. I don't believe it.

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yeah the numbers don't lie blizzard makes around $225m per quarter from its World of Warcraft division (revenue NOT profit, their "costs" are around 65% of revenue). They make almost nothing from asia, as a partner owns it there and asian companies are very deft at claiming they make no money while keeping it all (like hollywood), plus people there don't buy the game they instead buy hours at internet cafes and play it that way. plus wow is more or less dead in asia, everyone nowadays plays the korean MMOs.

so $225m - fees for pets/transfers/etc - small amount for asia - box revenue = $200m/3 months or $65m/month, divided by average sub of $15 is 4.25m subs in US/EU. Thats pretty much held steady for the last 7 years, 2-2.5m NA subbers and 2m EU subbers, the numbers fluctuate slightly but most of the fluctuation is in asia (the "extra" 3m players who make Blizzard almost nothing).

You can pull out the numbers yourself any quarter from their report
Activision Blizzard Announces Better-Than-Expected First Quarter 2014 Financial Results | Business Wire

just look at the Online Non-GAAP Net revenues, they combine Blizzard and Activision but afaik Activision doesn't have a online sub game. They can't really fudge these numbers or they get into serious, serious, SEC-sues-you-for-$1 billion kinda trouble. They don't exactly fudge how many wow subs they have, but they don't really talk much about how Asia makes them almost nothing and that US/EU has been stagnant for a decade now - for every 1 person who unsubs, there is basically 1 newbie who plays for a short while.

MMO theorists on this board never really get that, the churn in MMOs is vast and scary. In a year, a random guild will go through 99% churn, and its all new people who play the game for a bit then quit.

spronk_sl said:

so $225m - fees for pets/transfers/etc - small amount for asia - box revenue = $200m/3 months or $65m/month, divided by average sub of $15 is 4.25m subs in US/EU. Thats pretty much held steady for the last 7 years, 2-2.5m NA subbers and 2m EU subbers, the numbers fluctuate slightly but most of the fluctuation is in asia (the "extra" 3m players who make Blizzard almost nothing).

You can pull out the numbers yourself any quarter from their report
Activision Blizzard Announces Better-Than-Expected First Quarter 2014 Financial Results | Business Wire

just look at the Online Non-GAAP Net revenues, they combine Blizzard and Activision but afaik Activision doesn't have a online sub game. They can't really fudge these numbers or they get into serious, serious, SEC-sues-you-for-$1 billion kinda trouble. They don't exactly fudge how many wow subs they have, but they don't really talk much about how Asia makes them almost nothing and that US/EU has been stagnant for a decade now - for every 1 person who unsubs, there is basically 1 newbie who plays for a short while.

MMO theorists on this board never really get that, the churn in MMOs is vast and scary. In a year, a random guild will go through 99% churn, and its all new people who play the game for a bit then quit.

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i) those numbers include pre-orders for the next expac - yet again they've done a pre-purchase promotion (get a free lvl 90 now);

ii) I think you underestimate sales of in game items as well, especially Pokemon and mounts - it wouldn't surprise me to learn they're making as much from the store as they are from subs. A single Pokemon costs as much as a months sub and a mount costs twice as much. One guy buys a mount and a single Pokemon makes him spending the same as four monthly subs. That's not including buying lvl 90 character boosts at $60 a pop.

spronk_sl said:

yeah the numbers don't lie blizzard makes around $225m per quarter from its World of Warcraft division (revenue NOT profit, their "costs" are around 65% of revenue). They make almost nothing from asia, as a partner owns it there and asian companies are very deft at claiming they make no money while keeping it all (like hollywood), plus people there don't buy the game they instead buy hours at internet cafes and play it that way. plus wow is more or less dead in asia, everyone nowadays plays the korean MMOs.

so $225m - fees for pets/transfers/etc - small amount for asia - box revenue = $200m/3 months or $65m/month, divided by average sub of $15 is 4.25m subs in US/EU. Thats pretty much held steady for the last 7 years, 2-2.5m NA subbers and 2m EU subbers, the numbers fluctuate slightly but most of the fluctuation is in asia (the "extra" 3m players who make Blizzard almost nothing).

You can pull out the numbers yourself any quarter from their report
Activision Blizzard Announces Better-Than-Expected First Quarter 2014 Financial Results | Business Wire

just look at the Online Non-GAAP Net revenues, they combine Blizzard and Activision but afaik Activision doesn't have a online sub game. They can't really fudge these numbers or they get into serious, serious, SEC-sues-you-for-$1 billion kinda trouble. They don't exactly fudge how many wow subs they have, but they don't really talk much about how Asia makes them almost nothing and that US/EU has been stagnant for a decade now - for every 1 person who unsubs, there is basically 1 newbie who plays for a short while.

MMO theorists on this board never really get that, the churn in MMOs is vast and scary. In a year, a random guild will go through 99% churn, and its all new people who play the game for a bit then quit.

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I'm sure they also stop reporting the sub numbers on those that are ban or quit and never come back right? 3mil 7mil etc. It looks great if you just keep the numbers without doing new reporting and adjustments. Sort of like the dead voters. Sure they would have voted for X candidate, if they were alive still!!??!

As for Asia, isnt there an agreement with a China company that has altered the game for that market? I am sure that is pulling in some money.

Dr Neir_sl said:

I'm sure they also stop reporting the sub numbers on those that are ban or quit and never come back right? 3mil 7mil etc. It looks great if you just keep the numbers without doing new reporting and adjustments. Sort of like the dead voters. Sure they would have voted for X candidate, if they were alive still!!??!

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I take it you don't quite comprehend what the term "active sub" means.

Flight_sl said:

i) those numbers include pre-orders for the next expac - yet again they've done a pre-purchase promotion (get a free lvl 90 now);

ii) I think you underestimate sales of in game items as well, especially Pokemon and mounts - it wouldn't surprise me to learn they're making as much from the store as they are from subs. A single Pokemon costs as much as a months sub and a mount costs twice as much. One guy buys a mount and a single Pokemon makes him spending the same as four monthly subs. That's not including buying lvl 90 character boosts at $60 a pop.

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Do those numbers include gender changes, race changes, transfers and all that other shit?

they have broken out before how much money the cash shop makes, especially during their charity "drives" (100% of proceeds go towards the asian storm etc) and the numbers are lower than what you might think. Yes, the cash shop is a nice little money hat but its closer to $20m/month or so, which about lines up with f2p games as well. swtor for example made $170m TOTAL ($15m/mo) last year from their cash shop, and thats a game that heavily focuses on their cash shop.

yeah we really don't know exactly how much money is made where, someone who is REALLY into it can figure it out based on digging through reports and stuff. Companies also do an accounting "trick", when you pre-order something the money is not booked right away but instead it is held in accounting reserves and used to pad revenue down the road ("deferred income"). So for example if I pre-order WoD now, Blizzard will NOT count the $60 as revenue this quarter or month, but instead wait until WoD actually ships and stuff it into that quarter, or even sometimes months or years later. Companies like Microsoft, IBM and Apple are famous for having BILLIONS in deferred revenues that can be used to massage bad quarters.

I'm sure Blizzard does something similar but end of the day the number is still $200-300m/quarter from World of Warcraft (online sub fees only not one time box sales), however you wanna fudge that around thats still between 3-4m paying US/EU subs depending on how well you think the cash shop is doing. That still makes it the biggest sub MMO around, by an order of magnitude. And that number hasn't changed much in years.

Its also pathetically bad that Blizzard makes over $300m a year in profit from wow, and its going to be over a year in between content patches AGAIN. But also explains why so many companies chase the Blizzard MMO model, if you could copy it you will make more money than every other video game studio, combined. I think most have figured out it was a fluke of timing and luck, not likely to repeat any time soon, but you still get your TESOs and Wildstars.

Cash shop makes money because it requires almost no workforce to create items on an already existing content. You just need temps using some internal developing tool rather than fulltime programmer / coder team. What costs more when you develop a MMO is salaries, once you figured a way to create product with minimal people on payroll, you'll make profits.

Gecko_sl said:

I'd guess it sold better than FF14, but worse than SWTOR. I'd probably guess right at a million. They had ~300k box sales and it seems most of their customers were digital. Total guess though as Zenimax is keeping tight lipped. No idea how much churn rate we'll see, or if it'll be as bad as SWTOR.

I was reading an insider post somewhere on my Ipad that the cost to develop TESO was a fraction of TOR, also. I wish I had bookmarked it, but no way of telling if it was authentic. The reasoning was pretty sound. As much cash as SWTOR is generating, I can see this game making good dinero for Zenimax long term.

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I don't see this at all.

If they sold 1 million boxes, why would they drop the price $20 after the first month? That's almost unheard of if your sales are going that well. Especially if what you're saying about it costing a fraction of TOR's price.

Doesn't follow logic that a game costing 'nothing near' what TOR cost would drop 1/3 of it's price in the first month if things were going well.

Bondurant_sl said:

Cash shop makes money because it requires almost no workforce to create items on an already existing content. You just need temps using some internal developing tool rather than fulltime programmer / coder team. What costs more when you develop a MMO is salaries, once you figured a way to create product with minimal people on payroll, you'll make profits.

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Depends on the content. Most artists and animators will happily go into detail about how long it takes to create a new outfit for people to wear. SWTOR managed to sort of get around some of the headaches by only really having eight body "types" (four per gender) and as a result they generally have a half dozen new outfits come out per month, not including anything that comes out as part of a Tier increase. But in a game with differing body styles like WoW, that's a pipe dream. Vehicles are easy as well, especially on their end since the majority are hovercraft types, but there's some that are more involved. Like the "barge type" vehicles that have your character lounging back while a droid drives. There's an idle animation of your character eating a grape. The animal mounts are a bit different. Took them a while to get those in but now that they are there's some additional ones that come out every month. So there's lead time involved in getting things set up for a good content pipeline for the cash shop, but generally once that's set, it's easy getting stuff in. Compare the early "random packs" to what's come over this last shipment. It's like night and day.

I think it depends on how much the company wants to support the cash shop. SWTOR obviously supports it heavily. Their revenue numbers just from that are proof positive that it works for them. I can't speak to how much WoW supports theirs but they only update it with new items every once in a while, so not too much, which makes sense because that's not a focus. They still make money because people like to buy that stuff, but it's definitely not a focus. If ESO follows the SWTOR approach then they'll do fine, but they really have to be smart about it.

Flight_sl said:

If they can't fudge the numbers why can't you quote precise numbers ? 'Around 4 mill' is bollocks. That's still 1.5 times the number that bought the expac in the first week. I don't believe it.

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You must be confused about the average WoW subscriber. Not everyone buys the latest expac (for whatever the reason) right away.

No one saw that coming!

Utnayan_sl said:

That and if it hit a million you would see PR hype everywhere talking about it.

Rumor has it, it's tanking. Hard. Hence the price drop.

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I heard from some unreliable sources that this game was slated for F2P transition at console release.

Vitality_sl said:

I heard from some unreliable sources that this game was slated for F2P transition at console release.

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Last night at the groceries store there was a mysterious man standing in the shadows with dark duster and hat, he was mumbling something about Eu servers coming along with F2P / console launch / massive layoffs.